The Property Brief — what the evidence shows. You draw the conclusion.
Confidence: Low — based on 78 comparable auction sales (6 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±11% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Chapman St | 3 bd · 1 ba | $480k | Sept 2025 |
| 49 Turf St | 3 bd · 1 ba | $510k | Sept 2025 |
| 225 Arthur St | 3 bd · 1 ba | $460k | June 2025 |
| 230 Hoof St | 3 bd · 1 ba | $433k | May 2025 |
Suburb risk flags
crime index: 100 — well above sydney average
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye price model 2026-08-11-v5 — trained on 146,492 published auction sales; configuration-level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Grafton — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Grafton · postcode 2460
$475–$555/wk is what 3-bed houses in 2460 actually transact for (middle half of 63 bonds lodged, Q2 2026 · median $520/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).
2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $360 → $520/wk · +6% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for houses in 2460, all bedroom counts pooled.
Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Published auction results at this address
| Auction week | Result | Price | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Aug 2026 | Passed in | withheld | Ray White TKG |
From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.
⏭ It passed in — what happens next — the question the listing stops at
Across Sydney, homes that passed in and later sold went for about 6% less than comparable homes that sold under the hammer.
Half sold within 33 days, 76% within three months.
Like-for-like within bedroom and property-type groups · 64 comparison groups across Sydney, sales settled in the last two years. Based on passed-in homes that later sold. Homes that never sold aren't in the figure, so read this as what a sale fetches — not what the home is worth. Passing in is a negotiating position, not a verdict — this is evidence about outcomes, never advice on what to offer.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.
Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.