The listing we observed
4 bedrooms · House
Listing details describe the advertised home. They do not verify its condition or approved use.
Matt Brady · last observed 8 Sept 2026← swipe · 10 photos
Last seen listed — $6,500,000 · not confirmed in 48 days
4 bed · 3 bath · 2 car · House
We haven't been able to re-confirm this listing since 8 Sept 2026 — it may have sold or been withdrawn since; the price shown is the last one advertised.
Your buyer evidence guide
Understand the home before the offer.
The useful records, what they mean, and the questions they leave open. Start here, then explore the evidence below.
How much price evidence fits
42 sales in the wider suburb/type pool
The wider pool is not a set of identical homes. Bedroom count, condition and location within the suburb affect comparability.
Published auction evidence · model trained through 2026-10-23What deserves a closer look
- asking $6.5M
- first tracked by our radar (the portal doesn't publish its list date)
These are recorded events, not evidence of the seller's motivation.
What we still cannot tell you
- No settled-sale history is available in this page's records. This does not mean the home has never sold.
- Direct price support is limited. Read the comparable sales and the estimate's uncertainty together.
- Public records and an automated estimate cannot establish whether the home is defect-free, what the contract contains, or why the owner is selling.
Questions to take to the inspection
Use these with the agent and your independent advisers. An answer is something to verify, not a fact we have recorded.
- Which recent sales are most comparable to this home, and how do their size, condition and position differ?
- What repairs, alterations or water issues are documented, and what can an independent inspection verify?
The estimate is a model output. The records are evidence. Your inspection and document checks fill the gaps.
Is the asking price plausible?
This is a comparison with the evidence we hold, not a valuation or a recommended offer.
CONSERVATIVE
$5.66M
the calibrated floor
LIKELY FAIR RANGE
$5.66M–$7.79M
around $6.67M mid
STRETCH CAP
$7.79M
$9.31M on the wider 80% band
Confidence: Low — based on 42 comparable auction sales (1 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±16% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · priced from this property's own records: block size, land value · thin comparable support for this configuration — read the range as wider, not as a warning
How this estimate was made
- Method: AI PropertyEye tree model · trained through 2026-10-23
- Inputs used for this home: priced from this property's own records: block size, land value
- Comparable support: 42 sales in the wider suburb/type pool; 1 of this exact configuration
- When to be more cautious: This configuration has thin direct comparable support, so its range is deliberately wider.
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Kangaroo St | 4 bd · 2 ba | $5.18M | Sept 2025 |
| 160 Pittwater Rd | 4 bd · 2 ba | $3.85M | May 2025 |
| 8a Pacific Pde | 4 bd · 2 ba | $4.5M | Mar 2025 |
| 67 Eurobin Av | 4 bd · 2 ba | $4.5M | Sept 2024 |
Suburb risk flags
crime index: 68 — above sydney average · 6 min walk to Manly Wharf · ~18 min ferry to the CBD · ferries ~every 5 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye tree model 2026-09-02-v7-price-model-v6-full-grid, trained through 2026-10-23 — trained on 172,805 published auction sales; priced per address where this home's own records reach the model (see "How this estimate was made"), otherwise at configuration level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Manly — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Evidence trail: tracked by our radar from portal listings, web-archive checks and published auction results — each entry dated
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
What changed recently?
- 20 Aug 2026 first tracked by our radar (the portal doesn't publish its list date)
- 4 Sept 2026 asking $6.5M
- 27 Oct 2026 on market 68+ days — first tracked by us, a lower bound
What to inspect before you offer
- Condition, aspect, renovation and the contract — these can materially change price, and the estimate cannot see them.
These are due-diligence prompts, not a verdict on this property.
Days on market — this campaign
68 days since our daily sweep first saw this listing.
The portal's own campaign may have started slightly earlier than our first sighting. Longer campaigns tend to mean more negotiating room — the board's "Longest listed" sort exists for exactly that reason.
Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Manly · postcode 2095
$2138–$3078/wk is what 4-bed houses in 2095 actually transact for (middle half of 20 bonds lodged, last 12 mo · median $2625/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).
2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $1150 → $1350/wk · -2% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for houses in 2095, all bedroom counts pooled.
Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Agencies' own published sales nearby — Manly, around 4 beds
| Address | Sold | Price | Beds | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32/20 Bonner Avenue | 29 June 2026 | $5,250,000 | 3 | Cunninghams |
| 8 Herbert Street | 17 Mar 2026 | $5,300,000 | 5 | Cunninghams |
| 3/20 Birkley Road | 6 Feb 2026 | $2,550,000 | 3 | Cunninghams |
Prices as published on the selling agency's own website (their sold pages) — includes private-treaty sales the auction results never see. Only sales the agency chose to publish a figure for appear here.
Similar properties — on the market now
$6,000,000
5 Parkview Road
Fairlight · 1.2 km away
4 bed · 2 bath · 2 car
▼ Reduced 7.7% · $500k · 3 weeks ago
$6,000,000
23 The Drive
Freshwater · 2.3 km away
5 bed · 3 bath · 2 car
The 2 listings above are on the market now: same house category, within 1 bedroom of 4, asking within 20% of this one, in Manly or a suburb whose centre is within 3 km — ordered by how close the asking price is. That is the whole rule: a filter, not a recommendation, and nothing here judges which home is better.
What's changing in Manly — recent local signals
2026-10-08 — Development site — listing's own words: "Redevelopment Opportunity" (11 Fairlight Street, Manly, NSW 2095) (listing rea-152573976 (rea), first seen 2026-10-08)
2026-09-27 — DA-approved site — listing's own words: "DA-approved" (49 Bower Street, Manly, NSW 2095) (listing rea-152385056 (rea), first seen 2026-09-27)
2026-09-03 — Development site — listing's own words: "STCA" (9 Pacific Parade, Manly, NSW 2095) (listing rea-152236644 (rea), first seen 2026-09-03)
Dated public signals compiled for this suburb — openings, closures, site sales and institutional moves. Facts with sources, not forecasts.
School catchments
Manly Village PS (primary) · The Forest HS (secondary)
1 primary school within 2 km · ICSEA ~1158 — the socio-educational advantage of the school community (My School, national average ~1000): a demographic measure, never a results or quality score.
Suburb-centre approximation for Manly — addresses near a boundary can differ. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.
Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.