22 August 2026 — 114 Sydney auction results published with a price; the model had an estimate for 95 of them. Sorted closest-first, every miss included — that's the point.
11%median error · rolling 8 weeks
47%within 10%
73%within 20%
1,011results scored · 8 weeks
17%no estimate · 19 of 114 this week
In money: a 11% median miss is about ±$110,000 on every $1,000,000 of sale price — roughly ±$132,000 on a $1.2M home. Treat every estimate as a range, never a verdict.
| Property | Config | Model said | Sold for | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83 Austin St, Lane Cove | 4 bd House | $3.29M | $3.3M | 0% | ✓ within 10% |
| 69/1-5 Harwood St, Pyrmont | 1 bd Unit | $804k | $800k | +1% | ✓ within 10% |
| 5 Camden Gr, Figtree | 3 bd House | $1.25M | $1.24M | +1% | ✓ within 10% |
| 111/116 Belmont Rd, Mosman | 1 bd Unit | $921k | $930k | -1% | ✓ within 10% |
| 23 Fox St, Lane Cove | 4 bd House | $3.29M | $3.25M | +1% | ✓ within 10% |
| 15 The Breakwater, Corlette | 4 bd House | $1.4M | $1.43M | -2% | ✓ within 10% |
| 5 Twilight St, Leppington | 4 bd House | $1.28M | $1.25M | +2% | ✓ within 10% |
| 37 Benjamin St, Bexley North | 6 bd House | $2.17M | $2.21M | -2% | ✓ within 10% |
| 62 Excelsior Av, Castle Hill | 3 bd House | $1.91M | $1.95M | -2% | ✓ within 10% |
| 16 Mccarthy St, North Kellyville | 6 bd House | $2.03M | $2.08M | -2% | ✓ within 10% |
| 29/26-30 Huxtable Av, Lane Cove | 2 bd Unit | $891k | $870k | +2% | ✓ within 10% |
| 2 Young St, Mount Kuring-Gai | 5 bd House | $1.8M | $1.75M | +3% | ✓ within 10% |
| 1/235 Darlinghurst Rd, Darlinghurst | 2 bd Unit | $1.45M | $1.41M | +3% | ✓ within 10% |
| 3 Bream St, Como | 4 bd House | $1.84M | $1.9M | -3% | ✓ within 10% |
| 88 Mary St, Grafton | 4 bd House | $705k | $730k | -3% | ✓ within 10% |
| 20/12 Walton Cr, Abbotsford | 2 bd Unit | $1.15M | $1.19M | -4% | ✓ within 10% |
| 23 Wallan Av, Glenmore Park | 4 bd House | $1.22M | $1.17M | +4% | ✓ within 10% |
| 12 Blundell St, Marsfield | 3 bd House | $2.45M | $2.35M | +4% | ✓ within 10% |
| 36 Quartz Rd, Box Hill | 6 bd House | $1.58M | $1.65M | -4% | ✓ within 10% |
| 2/1-7 Bobart St, Parramatta | 2 bd Townhouse | $743k | $780k | -5% | ✓ within 10% |
| 59 Smith St, Wentworthville | 3 bd House | $1.46M | $1.53M | -5% | ✓ within 10% |
| 109/155 Missenden Rd, Newtown | 1 bd Unit | $759k | $800k | -5% | ✓ within 10% |
| 231 William St, Kingsgrove | 2 bd House | $1.64M | $1.74M | -5% | ✓ within 10% |
| 66 David Rd, Castle Hill | 5 bd House | $2.45M | $2.31M | +6% | ✓ within 10% |
| 5/24-26 Glen St, Marrickville | 2 bd Unit | $986k | $1.05M | -6% | ✓ within 10% |
| 43 Lakin St, Bateau Bay | 5 bd House | $1.68M | $1.79M | -6% | ✓ within 10% |
| 30 Kallaroo Rd, Bensville | 4 bd House | $1.02M | $956k | +6% | ✓ within 10% |
| 7/22 Villiers St, Kensington | 3 bd Unit | $1.38M | $1.29M | +7% | ✓ within 10% |
| 21 Poplar Pl, Lugarno | 4 bd House | $1.68M | $1.81M | -7% | ✓ within 10% |
| 11/69 Birriga Rd, Bellevue Hill | 2 bd Unit | $1.43M | $1.54M | -7% | ✓ within 10% |
| 174 Harrow Rd, Auburn | 3 bd House | $1.48M | $1.6M | -7% | ✓ within 10% |
| 32/53 Ocean Av, Double Bay | 2 bd Unit | $1.8M | $1.95M | -8% | ✓ within 10% |
| 48 Mulga Rd, Oatley | 3 bd House | $2.1M | $1.95M | +8% | ✓ within 10% |
| 60 Wall Park Av, Seven Hills | 4 bd House | $1.18M | $1.27M | -8% | ✓ within 10% |
| 2/111-113 Burns Bay Rd, Lane Cove | 2 bd Unit | $891k | $967k | -8% | ✓ within 10% |
| 2/136 Croydon Av, Croydon Park | 2 bd Unit | $770k | $710k | +8% | ✓ within 10% |
| 3/608-610 Willoughby Rd, Willoughby | 2 bd Unit | $1.12M | $1.03M | +9% | ✓ within 10% |
| 2/101 Baumans Rd, Peakhurst | 3 bd Villa | $1.32M | $1.22M | +9% | ✓ within 10% |
| 4/7 George St, Burwood | 2 bd Unit | $771k | $845k | -9% | ✓ within 10% |
| 123 Tallawalla St, Beverly Hills | 4 bd House | $1.95M | $1.78M | +9% | ✓ within 10% |
| 92 Clarence St, Grafton | 3 bd House | $550k | $610k | -10% | ✓ within 10% |
| 31b Marion St, Gymea | 4 bd Semi | $1.78M | $1.99M | -10% | ~ within 20% |
| 32/3 Gallimore Av, Balmain East | 2 bd Unit | $1.71M | $1.91M | -10% | ~ within 20% |
| 11 Tiara Cl, Grafton | 3 bd House | $550k | $615k | -11% | ~ within 20% |
| D106/5 Hadfields St, Erskineville | 2 bd Unit | $1.22M | $1.37M | -11% | ~ within 20% |
| 537/20 George Julius Av, Zetland | 2 bd Unit | $1.12M | $1.26M | -11% | ~ within 20% |
| 16 Josephine Cr, Cherrybrook | 5 bd House | $2.51M | $2.86M | -12% | ~ within 20% |
| 21 Lockyer St, Merewether | 4 bd House | $2.02M | $2.31M | -13% | ~ within 20% |
| 5/22 Read St, Bronte | 2 bd Unit | $1.62M | $1.44M | +13% | ~ within 20% |
| 14 Pyree St, Bangor | 3 bd House | $1.31M | $1.5M | -13% | ~ within 20% |
| 307/544-550 Mowbray Rd, Lane Cove | 2 bd Unit | $891k | $1.02M | -13% | ~ within 20% |
| 5 Kiernan Cr, Abbotsbury | 4 bd House | $1.55M | $1.8M | -14% | ~ within 20% |
| 41 Anthony St, Blacktown | 3 bd House | $1.04M | $910k | +14% | ~ within 20% |
| 1/9-13 Church St, Chatswood | 2 bd Unit | $1.16M | $1.02M | +14% | ~ within 20% |
| 267 Bent St, South Grafton | 4 bd House | $468k | $550k | -15% | ~ within 20% |
| 19/142 Old South Head Rd, Bellevue Hill | 2 bd Unit | $1.43M | $1.24M | +15% | ~ within 20% |
| 605/63 Crown St, Woolloomooloo | 2 bd Unit | $1.43M | $1.7M | -16% | ~ within 20% |
| 55 Wangolove St, Schofields | 4 bd House | $1.37M | $1.18M | +16% | ~ within 20% |
| 10A Gallipoli St, Condell Park | 5 bd House | $1.63M | $1.95M | -16% | ~ within 20% |
| 12 Ballandella Rd, Toongabbie | 3 bd House | $1.24M | $1.49M | -17% | ~ within 20% |
| 5/18-20 Terry Rd, Eastwood | 2 bd Villa | $1.13M | $1.37M | -18% | ~ within 20% |
| A206/82 Waterloo Rd, Macquarie Park | 1 bd Unit | $715k | $603k | +19% | ~ within 20% |
| 357A Sailors Bay Rd, Northbridge | 4 bd House | $4.28M | $3.59M | +19% | ~ within 20% |
| 15 Beaumaris St, Enfield | 4 bd House | $2.62M | $3.24M | -19% | ~ within 20% |
| 12 Skye Ct, Kellyville | 5 bd House | $2.2M | $1.84M | +20% | ~ within 20% |
| 75 Inverness Av, Penshurst | 4 bd House | $2.03M | $2.54M | -20% | miss |
| 11/109 Ocean St, Narrabeen | 2 bd Unit | $1.13M | $1.43M | -20% | miss |
| 39 Gregory Av, Baulkham Hills | 5 bd House | $2.1M | $1.72M | +22% | miss |
| 87 Young St, Annandale | 2 bd House | $2.13M | $1.73M | +23% | miss |
| 11 Florence St, St Peters | 3 bd House | $2.28M | $1.83M | +24% | miss |
| 111/219 Chalmers St, Redfern | 1 bd Unit | $908k | $730k | +24% | miss |
| 1/23-24 Etonville Pde, Croydon | 2 bd Unit | $888k | $1.18M | -25% | miss |
| 3 Marriott Gr, Castle Hill | 6 bd House | $2.45M | $3.3M | -26% | miss |
| 24 Grove St, St Peters | 3 bd House | $2.28M | $1.8M | +26% | miss |
| 50 Bacon St, Grafton | 3 bd House | $550k | $431k | +28% | miss |
| 2B Curagul Rd, Turramurra | 4 bd House | $2.85M | $2.23M | +28% | miss |
| 23/5 Leisure Cl, Macquarie Park | 2 bd Unit | $923k | $720k | +28% | miss |
| 44A Eastwood Av, Eastwood | 3 bd House | $2.32M | $1.8M | +29% | miss |
| 131 Bruce St, Brighton-Le-Sands | 4 bd House | $2.47M | $1.87M | +32% | miss |
| 21/40-42 Ramsgate Av, Bondi Beach | 1 bd Unit | $1.25M | $950k | +32% | miss |
| 7/36 Ramsgate Av, Bondi Beach | 2 bd Unit | $1.8M | $1.35M | +34% | miss |
| 7002/117 Bathurst St, Sydney | 2 bd Unit | $1.51M | $2.4M | -37% | miss |
| 28 Sandringham St, Sans Souci | 3 bd House | $2.28M | $1.65M | +38% | miss |
| 31a Chester St, Petersham | 3 bd House | $2.56M | $1.83M | +40% | miss |
| 17 Pearl St, Newtown | 3 bd House | $2.6M | $1.85M | +41% | miss |
| 156 Young Rd, Lambton | 3 bd House | $1.15M | $806k | +43% | miss |
| 12 Shadforth St, Paddington | 3 bd House | $3.94M | $2.75M | +43% | miss |
| 23 William St, Redfern | 3 bd House | $2.94M | $2.05M | +43% | miss |
| 45 Taylor St, Annandale | 2 bd House | $2.13M | $1.48M | +44% | miss |
| 14 Rickard St, Carlingford | 5 bd House | $2.39M | $4.48M | -47% | miss |
| 2206/116 Bathurst St, Sydney | 2 bd Unit | $1.51M | $3.18M | -53% | miss |
| 1/22 Eurobin Av, Manly | 1 bd Unit | $1.22M | $790k | +54% | miss |
| 393 Princes Hwy, Sydenham | 2 bd House | $1.72M | $1M | +72% | miss |
| 7 Cecil St, Paddington | 4 bd House | $4.75M | $2.65M | +79% | miss |
| 111 Canal St, Griffith | 3 bd House | $596k | $300k | +99% | miss |
Brisbane — scored on the base model (no Brisbane land/school features yet — ranges run honestly wider)
22 August 2026 — 28 Brisbane auction results published with a price; the model had an estimate for 13 of them. Sorted closest-first, every miss included — that's the point.
16.4%median error · rolling 8 weeks
35%within 10%
59%within 20%
207results scored · 8 weeks
54%no estimate · 15 of 28 this week
In money: a 16.4% median miss is about ±$164,000 on every $1,000,000 of sale price — roughly ±$197,000 on a $1.2M home. Treat every estimate as a range, never a verdict.
| Property | Config | Model said | Sold for | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/33-35 Cypress Av, Surfers Paradise | 1 bd Unit | $540k | $550k | -2% | ✓ within 10% |
| 67/540 Queen St, Brisbane City | 3 bd Unit | $948k | $1M | -5% | ✓ within 10% |
| 41 Bernecker St, Carina | 3 bd House | $1.2M | $1.3M | -8% | ✓ within 10% |
| 21 Bunny St, Everton Park | 3 bd House | $1.2M | $1.31M | -8% | ✓ within 10% |
| 14 Wallace St, Moorooka | 2 bd House | $876k | $955k | -8% | ✓ within 10% |
| 22 Nurran St, Mount Gravatt East | 3 bd House | $1.24M | $1.08M | +14% | ~ within 20% |
| 30 Mayfair Pl, Stretton | 4 bd House | $1.43M | $1.2M | +19% | ~ within 20% |
| 89/85 Old Burleigh Rd, Surfers Paradise | 2 bd Unit | $766k | $980k | -22% | miss |
| 8 Spendelove Av, Southport | 3 bd House | $1.07M | $850k | +26% | miss |
| 56 Stuart St, Goodna | 3 bd House | $642k | $880k | -27% | miss |
| 2304/100 Duporth Av, Maroochydore | 3 bd Unit | $1.26M | $1.85M | -32% | miss |
| 7 Lonsdale St, Ascot | 6 bd House | $2.66M | $5.25M | -49% | miss |
| 74 Agnes St, Auchenflower | 3 bd House | $1.42M | $3.23M | -56% | miss |
Melbourne — scored on the base model (no Melbourne land/school features yet — ranges run honestly wider)
22 August 2026 — 145 Melbourne auction results published with a price; the model had an estimate for 137 of them. Sorted closest-first, every miss included — that's the point.
12.6%median error · rolling 8 weeks
41%within 10%
70%within 20%
1,451results scored · 8 weeks
6%no estimate · 8 of 145 this week
In money: a 12.6% median miss is about ±$126,000 on every $1,000,000 of sale price — roughly ±$151,000 on a $1.2M home. Treat every estimate as a range, never a verdict.
| Property | Config | Model said | Sold for | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Cole Cr, Coburg | 3 bd House | $1.26M | $1.25M | +1% | ✓ within 10% |
| 2/6 Hennessy St, Brunswick | 2 bd Townhouse | $909k | $917k | -1% | ✓ within 10% |
| 15 Gertrude St, Preston | 4 bd House | $1.24M | $1.22M | +1% | ✓ within 10% |
| 45 Carson St, Mulgrave | 3 bd Townhouse | $869k | $857k | +1% | ✓ within 10% |
| 59 Lenoak St, Gladstone Park | 3 bd House | $803k | $790k | +2% | ✓ within 10% |
| 2/48 Omar St, Maidstone | 3 bd Townhouse | $773k | $760k | +2% | ✓ within 10% |
| 15 Fortuna St, Clayton | 3 bd Townhouse | $846k | $830k | +2% | ✓ within 10% |
| 16 Vidos Rd, Greenvale | 4 bd House | $864k | $847k | +2% | ✓ within 10% |
| 91 Tarana Av, Glenroy | 3 bd House | $828k | $845k | -2% | ✓ within 10% |
| 1/12 Mccomas St, Reservoir | 3 bd Townhouse | $798k | $815k | -2% | ✓ within 10% |
| 72 Hillview Rd, Greenvale | 4 bd House | $864k | $885k | -2% | ✓ within 10% |
| 54 Croydon Rd, Surrey Hills | 4 bd House | $2.15M | $2.1M | +2% | ✓ within 10% |
| 21 Bamford Av, Westmeadows | 3 bd House | $775k | $795k | -3% | ✓ within 10% |
| 107 Evell St, Glenroy | 3 bd House | $828k | $850k | -3% | ✓ within 10% |
| 516 Main Rd W, Kings Park | 3 bd House | $677k | $695k | -3% | ✓ within 10% |
| 67 Campbell St, Glen Waverley | 4 bd House | $1.74M | $1.79M | -3% | ✓ within 10% |
| 8 Dampier Ct, Epping | 3 bd House | $746k | $768k | -3% | ✓ within 10% |
| 65 Clare Blvd, Greenvale | 4 bd House | $864k | $890k | -3% | ✓ within 10% |
| 2/42 Owen St, Mitcham | 3 bd Unit | $1.02M | $990k | +3% | ✓ within 10% |
| 8/126-128 Park Dr, Parkville | 2 bd Unit | $703k | $725k | -3% | ✓ within 10% |
| 32 Margaret St, Werribee | 3 bd House | $639k | $620k | +3% | ✓ within 10% |
| 3/47 Campbell St, Glen Waverley | 3 bd Unit | $1.13M | $1.09M | +3% | ✓ within 10% |
| 3/6 Hennessy St, Brunswick | 3 bd Townhouse | $1.14M | $1.1M | +3% | ✓ within 10% |
| 1B Newton St, Reservoir | 2 bd Townhouse | $672k | $650k | +3% | ✓ within 10% |
| 29 Clive St, Brighton East | 3 bd House | $1.74M | $1.8M | -4% | ✓ within 10% |
| 66 Moonee Blvd, Glenroy | 4 bd House | $912k | $880k | +4% | ✓ within 10% |
| 2/40 Eisenhower St, Reservoir | 3 bd Townhouse | $798k | $770k | +4% | ✓ within 10% |
| 14 Tennant St, Point Cook | 4 bd House | $893k | $861k | +4% | ✓ within 10% |
| 131 Wilsons Rd, Newcomb | 3 bd House | $685k | $660k | +4% | ✓ within 10% |
| 2/3 Fyfe St, Reservoir | 2 bd Townhouse | $672k | $647k | +4% | ✓ within 10% |
| 4 Oregon Pl, Mill Park | 5 bd House | $1.04M | $999k | +5% | ✓ within 10% |
| 22 Cedar St, Thomastown | 3 bd House | $779k | $820k | -5% | ✓ within 10% |
| 243 Bambra Rd, Caulfield South | 2 bd House | $1.25M | $1.31M | -5% | ✓ within 10% |
| 7/33 Edina Rd, Ferntree Gully | 2 bd Unit | $636k | $605k | +5% | ✓ within 10% |
| 33 Kuringgai Cr, Noble Park | 4 bd House | $932k | $885k | +5% | ✓ within 10% |
| 4/17 Mullum Mullum Rd, Ringwood | 3 bd Townhouse | $860k | $815k | +6% | ✓ within 10% |
| 11A Railway Cr, Croydon | 3 bd House | $914k | $862k | +6% | ✓ within 10% |
| 1 Purdy Av, Dandenong | 3 bd House | $802k | $755k | +6% | ✓ within 10% |
| 3/88 Canning St, Avondale Heights | 2 bd Unit | $628k | $670k | -6% | ✓ within 10% |
| 22 Duke St, Richmond | 3 bd House | $1.52M | $1.43M | +6% | ✓ within 10% |
| 8 Mangrove Ct, Aspendale Gardens | 4 bd House | $1.39M | $1.3M | +7% | ✓ within 10% |
| 113 Brewer Rd, Bentleigh | 3 bd House | $1.5M | $1.61M | -7% | ✓ within 10% |
| 4 Primula Av, Brooklyn | 4 bd House | $789k | $850k | -7% | ✓ within 10% |
| 4/8 Jean St, Reservoir | 3 bd Townhouse | $798k | $866k | -8% | ✓ within 10% |
| 11 Dion St, Ferntree Gully | 3 bd House | $938k | $870k | +8% | ✓ within 10% |
| 14 Wood St, Avondale Heights | 3 bd House | $1.03M | $1.13M | -8% | ✓ within 10% |
| 32 Orvieto St, Coburg North | 3 bd House | $1.06M | $985k | +8% | ✓ within 10% |
| 7 Greenside Wy, Mernda | 4 bd House | $817k | $754k | +8% | ✓ within 10% |
| 7 Benshaw Ct, Hillside | 5 bd House | $905k | $835k | +8% | ✓ within 10% |
| 1/85 Bowes Av, Airport West | 5 bd Townhouse | $957k | $1.04M | -8% | ✓ within 10% |
| 2 Cabarita Cr, South Morang | 4 bd House | $882k | $810k | +9% | ✓ within 10% |
| 10 Salisbury Av, Blackburn | 4 bd House | $1.62M | $1.79M | -9% | ✓ within 10% |
| 18 Meridian Pde, Wantirna South | 5 bd House | $1.49M | $1.65M | -10% | ✓ within 10% |
| 52 Sixth Av, Chelsea Heights | 3 bd House | $921k | $1.02M | -10% | ✓ within 10% |
| 46A Eva St, Clayton | 4 bd Townhouse | $910k | $1.01M | -10% | ✓ within 10% |
| 13/48 Cooper St, Epping | 3 bd Townhouse | $621k | $563k | +10% | ~ within 20% |
| 62 Farview St, Glenroy | 3 bd House | $828k | $925k | -10% | ~ within 20% |
| 2/72 Bishop St, Yarraville | 2 bd Townhouse | $775k | $700k | +11% | ~ within 20% |
| 6 Coco Dr, Mickleham | 3 bd House | $671k | $605k | +11% | ~ within 20% |
| 226A Victoria St, Brunswick | 2 bd House | $1.21M | $1.09M | +11% | ~ within 20% |
| 37 Leila Rd, Ormond | 2 bd House | $1.3M | $1.46M | -11% | ~ within 20% |
| 5A Oloughlan St, Ormond | 4 bd House | $1.79M | $2.02M | -11% | ~ within 20% |
| 41 Barry Rd, Thomastown | 3 bd House | $779k | $880k | -11% | ~ within 20% |
| 15 Karnak Ct, Glen Waverley | 5 bd House | $1.93M | $1.73M | +12% | ~ within 20% |
| 32 Schafter Dr, Doncaster East | 5 bd House | $1.85M | $2.1M | -12% | ~ within 20% |
| 54 Graham St, Newport | 3 bd House | $1.18M | $1.05M | +12% | ~ within 20% |
| 4/18 Wordsworth Av, Clayton South | 2 bd Unit | $650k | $580k | +12% | ~ within 20% |
| 1/28 Kionga St, Clayton | 3 bd Unit | $915k | $810k | +13% | ~ within 20% |
| 54 James St, Preston | 3 bd House | $1.13M | $1.3M | -13% | ~ within 20% |
| 26/86 Queens Pde, Fitzroy North | 3 bd Unit | $1.09M | $960k | +14% | ~ within 20% |
| 24 John St, Brunswick East | 2 bd House | $1.12M | $1.3M | -14% | ~ within 20% |
| 15 Ashcombe Dr, Ringwood | 5 bd House | $1.2M | $1.05M | +14% | ~ within 20% |
| 44 Bowler St, Hawthorn East | 3 bd House | $1.8M | $1.57M | +14% | ~ within 20% |
| 37 William St, Fawkner | 2 bd House | $751k | $886k | -15% | ~ within 20% |
| 53 Wheatland Cr, Dingley Village | 4 bd House | $1.21M | $1.43M | -15% | ~ within 20% |
| 25 Highbury Cct, Craigieburn | 3 bd House | $692k | $600k | +15% | ~ within 20% |
| 6/166-168 Poath Rd, Hughesdale | 3 bd Townhouse | $1.1M | $950k | +16% | ~ within 20% |
| 3/11 Oak St, Pascoe Vale | 2 bd Townhouse | $612k | $725k | -16% | ~ within 20% |
| 14 Healey St, Craigieburn | 4 bd House | $812k | $702k | +16% | ~ within 20% |
| 4 Gretna Ct, Greenvale | 4 bd House | $864k | $1.03M | -16% | ~ within 20% |
| 5/1110 Dandenong Rd, Carnegie | 2 bd Unit | $750k | $645k | +16% | ~ within 20% |
| 42A Murray St, Fawkner | 3 bd House | $842k | $720k | +17% | ~ within 20% |
| 1/74 Harlington St, Clayton | 4 bd Unit | $986k | $840k | +17% | ~ within 20% |
| 43 Mannering Dr, Glen Waverley | 4 bd House | $1.74M | $1.48M | +18% | ~ within 20% |
| 11 Tooradin Av, Dallas | 4 bd House | $697k | $590k | +18% | ~ within 20% |
| 2/63 Allenby Rd, Hillside | 3 bd House | $768k | $650k | +18% | ~ within 20% |
| 6 Donaldson St, Bentleigh | 5 bd House | $2.02M | $1.7M | +19% | ~ within 20% |
| 844 Morris Rd, Truganina | 5 bd House | $871k | $1.07M | -19% | ~ within 20% |
| 17 Coolullah Av, South Yarra | 3 bd House | $1.4M | $1.73M | -19% | ~ within 20% |
| 1/51 Southern Rd, Heidelberg Heights | 2 bd House | $785k | $653k | +20% | miss |
| 8 Tandarook Cr, Donvale | 5 bd House | $1.75M | $2.2M | -20% | miss |
| 3/1 Thomson St, Essendon | 2 bd Unit | $636k | $800k | -20% | miss |
| 111 Royal Cr, Hillside | 4 bd House | $855k | $1.08M | -21% | miss |
| 11 Botany La, Taylors Hill | 4 bd House | $990k | $1.27M | -22% | miss |
| 26 Collings St, Camberwell | 2 bd House | $1.51M | $1.24M | +22% | miss |
| 7 Midanbury Rd, Donnybrook | 4 bd House | $797k | $650k | +23% | miss |
| 149 Ogilvie St, Essendon | 4 bd House | $1.74M | $2.26M | -23% | miss |
| 3/7 Walter St, Glen Waverley | 4 bd Townhouse | $1.29M | $1.05M | +23% | miss |
| 31 Piccadilly Ct, Greenvale | 3 bd House | $776k | $1.01M | -24% | miss |
| 4 Solferino Cl, Mount Waverley | 4 bd House | $1.73M | $1.39M | +24% | miss |
| 166 Gladstone Av, Northcote | 4 bd House | $2M | $1.61M | +24% | miss |
| 37 Vanbrook Dr, Mill Park | 5 bd House | $1.04M | $1.39M | -25% | miss |
| 1/40 Beddoe Av, Bentleigh East | 2 bd House | $1.24M | $993k | +25% | miss |
| 3 Malvina Ct, Rowville | 4 bd House | $1.21M | $1.61M | -25% | miss |
| 28 Grayson Dr, Scoresby | 3 bd House | $1M | $800k | +25% | miss |
| 3/36 Beaumont Pde, West Footscray | 2 bd House | $786k | $622k | +26% | miss |
| 32A Gillard St, Burwood | 4 bd House | $1.54M | $1.22M | +27% | miss |
| 12 Duke St, Braybrook | 3 bd House | $1.07M | $840k | +28% | miss |
| 210/1-3 Dods St, Brunswick | 2 bd Unit | $811k | $1.13M | -28% | miss |
| 410/5 Elgar Ct, Doncaster | 2 bd Unit | $660k | $510k | +29% | miss |
| 86 Delbridge St, Fitzroy North | 4 bd House | $2.05M | $2.91M | -29% | miss |
| 109 Allenby Rd, Hillside | 4 bd House | $855k | $660k | +30% | miss |
| 53 Hanley St, Avondale Heights | 2 bd House | $843k | $650k | +30% | miss |
| 59 First Av, Melton South | 4 bd House | $695k | $530k | +31% | miss |
| 1296 Dandenong Rd, Murrumbeena | 4 bd House | $1.58M | $1.19M | +33% | miss |
| 4 Manson Ct, Rowville | 3 bd Townhouse | $828k | $620k | +34% | miss |
| 27 Charles St, Abbotsford | 2 bd House | $1.23M | $915k | +34% | miss |
| 33 Mcmurray Cr, Hoppers Crossing | 5 bd House | $849k | $1.29M | -34% | miss |
| 6/44 Maywood Rd, Manor Lakes | 4 bd House | $758k | $561k | +35% | miss |
| 22 Ridgeway Av, Kew | 5 bd House | $2.52M | $3.92M | -36% | miss |
| 4/72 Speight St, Newport | 1 bd Unit | $416k | $306k | +36% | miss |
| 10 Katta Ct, Ashwood | 5 bd House | $1.76M | $1.27M | +39% | miss |
| 126 Antares Pde, Kalkallo | 3 bd House | $676k | $485k | +39% | miss |
| 75 Market St, Kensington | 5 bd House | $1.5M | $2.5M | -40% | miss |
| 11 Elizabeth St, Northcote | 3 bd House | $1.64M | $1.17M | +41% | miss |
| 891 Waverley Rd, Glen Waverley | 4 bd House | $1.74M | $1.24M | +41% | miss |
| 2 Pritchard Av, Braybrook | 3 bd House | $1.07M | $760k | +41% | miss |
| 7/9 Wilks St, Caulfield North | 2 bd Unit | $748k | $512k | +46% | miss |
| 26 Eltham St, Flemington | 5 bd House | $1.37M | $2.6M | -47% | miss |
| 99 Nicholson St, Mckinnon | 2 bd Townhouse | $945k | $641k | +47% | miss |
| 27 Lasiandra Av, Nunawading | 5 bd House | $1.63M | $1.1M | +48% | miss |
| 21 Mcquillan Wy, Burnside | 5 bd House | $986k | $658k | +50% | miss |
| 67 Rowans Rd, Highett | 3 bd House | $1.39M | $912k | +53% | miss |
| 14 Fawkner St, St Kilda | 3 bd House | $855k | $1.9M | -55% | miss |
| 1 The Pines Out, Doncaster East | 4 bd House | $1.67M | $1.05M | +58% | miss |
| 82 Darvall St, Donvale | 4 bd House | $1.59M | $950k | +68% | miss |
| 104/224 Burwood Hwy, Burwood | 1 bd Unit | $558k | $215k | +160% | miss |
Adelaide — scored on the base model (no Adelaide land/school features yet — ranges run honestly wider)
22 August 2026 — 26 Adelaide auction results published with a price; the model had an estimate for 20 of them. Sorted closest-first, every miss included — that's the point.
11.8%median error · rolling 8 weeks
42%within 10%
71%within 20%
209results scored · 8 weeks
23%no estimate · 6 of 26 this week
In money: a 11.8% median miss is about ±$118,000 on every $1,000,000 of sale price — roughly ±$142,000 on a $1.2M home. Treat every estimate as a range, never a verdict.
| Property | Config | Model said | Sold for | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5B Mundon St, Campbelltown | 4 bd House | $1.04M | $1M | +4% | ✓ within 10% |
| 3 Davis Rd, Glynde | 3 bd House | $992k | $1.03M | -4% | ✓ within 10% |
| 28 Golden Cct, Parafield Gardens | 3 bd House | $717k | $780k | -8% | ✓ within 10% |
| 3 Old Tawny Cl, Wynn Vale | 4 bd House | $837k | $940k | -11% | ~ within 20% |
| 22 Da Costa Av, Prospect | 4 bd House | $1.49M | $1.34M | +11% | ~ within 20% |
| 46 Spring St, North Plympton | 3 bd House | $1M | $1.13M | -11% | ~ within 20% |
| 50 Kent St, Mansfield Park | 4 bd House | $839k | $950k | -12% | ~ within 20% |
| 5 Beltana St, Salisbury | 3 bd House | $678k | $788k | -14% | ~ within 20% |
| 40 Mitton Av, Henley Beach | 3 bd House | $1.37M | $1.2M | +14% | ~ within 20% |
| 95 Lavender Dr, Parafield Gardens | 3 bd House | $717k | $850k | -16% | ~ within 20% |
| 22 The Common, Beaumont | 4 bd House | $1.75M | $2.2M | -21% | miss |
| 39 Carroll Av, Kilburn | 4 bd House | $927k | $1.18M | -21% | miss |
| 83 Henry St, West Croydon | 3 bd House | $1.01M | $1.3M | -22% | miss |
| 12 Allen Dr, Para Hills | 3 bd House | $697k | $912k | -24% | miss |
| 33 Kingborn Av, Seaton | 3 bd House | $865k | $1.2M | -28% | miss |
| 6 Glenburnie Tce, Plympton | 3 bd House | $902k | $1.28M | -30% | miss |
| 51 Gardner St, Plympton | 3 bd House | $902k | $1.42M | -36% | miss |
| 19 Victoria St, Mile End | 3 bd House | $1.07M | $1.7M | -37% | miss |
| 116 North St, Henley Beach | 3 bd House | $1.37M | $2.34M | -41% | miss |
| 585 Goodwood Rd, Colonel Light Gardens | 2 bd House | $1.25M | $820k | +53% | miss |
Canberra — scored on the base model (no Canberra land/school features yet — ranges run honestly wider)
22 August 2026 — 9 Canberra auction results published with a price; the model had an estimate for 9 of them. Sorted closest-first, every miss included — that's the point.
9.2%median error · rolling 8 weeks
54%within 10%
80%within 20%
82results scored · 8 weeks
0%no estimate · 0 of 9 this week
In money: a 9.2% median miss is about ±$92,000 on every $1,000,000 of sale price — roughly ±$110,000 on a $1.2M home. Treat every estimate as a range, never a verdict.
| Property | Config | Model said | Sold for | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Catalano St, Wright | 3 bd House | $1.11M | $1.1M | +1% | ✓ within 10% |
| 5 Clay St, Bonner | 4 bd House | $1.04M | $1.06M | -1% | ✓ within 10% |
| 130 Ida West St, Bonner | 5 bd House | $1.1M | $1.07M | +2% | ✓ within 10% |
| 14 Nairn Pl, Macquarie | 3 bd House | $1.04M | $990k | +5% | ✓ within 10% |
| 37 Brunswick Cct, Kaleen | 4 bd House | $1.19M | $1.31M | -9% | ✓ within 10% |
| 4 Mareeba St, Fisher | 3 bd House | $997k | $895k | +11% | ~ within 20% |
| 10/17 Eastlake Pde, Kingston | 1 bd Unit | $649k | $785k | -17% | ~ within 20% |
| 42 Araba St, Aranda | 5 bd House | $1.47M | $2.23M | -34% | miss |
| 152 Beasley St, Torrens | 3 bd House | $1.3M | $770k | +69% | miss |
The running report card
| Run | Median error | Within 20% | Results scored | Model version |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Aug 2026 | 11.7% | 72% | 1262 | 2026-08-11-v5 |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 11.6% | 73% | 1158 | 2026-08-11-v5 |
How to read this honestly
The model estimates from suburb, property type and bedrooms only here — published auction lists don't carry bathrooms, parking or land size, so these scores read slightly worse than the model does with full listing details. Only sold results with a disclosed price can be scored; withheld prices and passed-in campaigns are excluded by construction. Brisbane, Melbourne, Adelaide, Canberra are scored on the base model (suburb prior + configuration + time) without the Sydney-only land/school/transport features — expect wider errors there while their data matures. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice.