Manly Vale · Sydney NSW

Price model — what the model says a typical home here achieves at auction

Modelled from 146,492 Australian auction sales (2021–2026). Sydney cells run on the base model (suburb prior + configuration + time) without the Sydney-only land/school/transport features — ranges are honest about the wider uncertainty. Estimates from comparable auction results — not valuations or financial advice.

Buildings in Manly Vale — full dossiers: every sale, turnover, orders, what units rent for

The 20 most-transacted of 63 Manly Vale buildings with dossiers — the rest are reachable from these pages and the sitemap. Sales counts and resale records from NSW Valuer General bulk data (CC-BY); lot counts from the NSW Strata Hub register. Each dossier also states what public records cannot tell you.

Recent comparable sales — the real auction results behind the estimates

Units

Houses

Recent sold auction results in Manly Vale from the price model's training set (published Domain results). A sample, not every sale.

What Manly Vale actually sold for — published auction results, quarter by quarter

Quarterly medians of real published auction results (sold outcomes only). Historical results — not a prediction, valuation or financial advice.

All settled sales — every recorded sale, not just auctions

Last 12 months: 145 settled sales · median $1,250,000 (middle half $910,000–$1,825,000)

Settled-sale records from the NSW Valuer General's Property Sales Information. Dates are contract (exchange) dates; sales appear only once lodged, so the most recent months are incomplete and revise upward — never read the latest month as final. Residential sales of all methods — private treaty and auction. © State of New South Wales (Valuation NSW).

Crime — recorded key offences (BOCSAR)

Index 24 — below the Sydney average (50 = average) · band low

BOCSAR recorded key offences per resident at POSTCODE level (2093) — a postcode can span neighbouring suburbs. Rates are per RESIDENT — visitor-heavy precincts read high. Source: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research (CC BY 4.0).

🏡 Yield vs growth — who pays here, and does it convert?

Owner-occupier premium. Gross yield 3.2% (bond-median rent $835/wk against a measured unit sale median of $1360k) · measured growth +6.8%/yr — against metro medians of 4.1% and 1.7%/yr across 39 tracked suburbs.

Thin yield, real measured growth — priced by people who want to live here, not by the rent it earns.

Rent trajectory (new-tenancy bond medians, postcode 2093): +8.8%/yr over the last 3 years · +5.8%/yr since 2019 — a level is not a trend; both are shown so neither is implied.

Working: rent = NSW rental bond lodgements, flats, postcode level; growth = like-for-like 2-bed OLS (38 sales) over 14 quarters. Relative labels — "high" means above the metro median in this window, nothing more. Drivers are places and distances, never who lives here.

Delivered & approved supply — what got built around here, honestly windowed

199 dwellings approved in Manly Vale between 2019-08-30 and 2023-04-29 (156 applications).

Census check: occupied dwellings grew from 2,290 (2016) to 2,651 (2021) — +361 delivered in that window, +129 of them apartments — measured completion, independent of any approval record.

Council portal records begin August 2019 — approvals before that date are invisible to the automated count and appear here only where curated from public record (and say so). Approved also precedes completed by 1–3 years. State-assessed projects live in the fast-track section, not these counts.

State-fiat planning programs — controls moved by state decision (RULE-002)

Low and Mid-Rise Housing reform — Manly Vale town centre · controls from 2025-02-28 · source

A state-fiat listing changes what can be BUILT here — planning controls, height, density — by government decision, with no demand-demonstration step. It is a zoning signal, not a price signal: our own backtests found listed and unlisted suburbs moving together, so we don't claim price uplift from a listing. What it reliably means: development capacity changed on the date shown, checkable at the source.

State-assessed housing nearby — the fast-track pipeline within 2.5km, refused declarations included

340 dwellings · 14 Koorala Street, Manly Vale · 0.6km away · Time & Place
Declared State Significant — on the fast-track · HDA record, 2026-06-22

237 dwellings · 2 - 8 Roger Street, Brookvale · 2.3km away · Dilcara Construction Pty Ltd
Not declared — fast-track refused · HDA record, 2026-06-22

Known pipeline within 2.5km: 577 dwellings across 2 projects — future supply IF approved and built. More homes coming can mean growth in services and momentum, but also more stock competing with a resale.

Supply concentration: one applicant (Time & Place) is behind the entire known nearby pipeline (340 dwellings, 59% of the known pipeline). Concentrated supply cuts both ways: delivery is likelier, but future sales and rentals compete with the same pipeline's next release — a cap the growth numbers won't show. Applicants can be planning consultants acting for a developer.

These proposals go straight to NSW state assessment (Housing Delivery Authority pathway) and never appear in council DA counts. Dwelling numbers are the applicant's EOI figures — assessment can trim them. Distance is suburb-centre to project, ±500m.

Schools — density, catchment and community profile

4 primary schools within 2km · nearest school ~0.55km · 1 selective within 5km · ICSEA 1133

Catchment (suburb-centre approximation): Manly Vale PS · The Forest HS — a boundary address can differ; verify yours at NSW School Finder.

ICSEA is the socio-educational advantage of a school's community (My School, national average ~1000) — a demographic measure, not a quality or results score. NSW DoE school locations + intake zones, CC BY 4.0.

Auction market pace — Sydney weekly clearance

Benchmark series (Domain): week to 2026-08-22 — 53.8% of 372 reported auctions. Our own tracking (withdrawn counted): week to 2026-08-22 — 43% of 524 scheduled. Lower clearance generally means more room for buyers to negotiate.

Suburb breakdown — trailing 8 weeks, our tracking, withdrawn counted

Recent auction addresses in Manly Vale

Every address links to its own page — published results, price estimate, suburb context.

3/21A Koorala St · 58 Sunshine St · 68 Gordon St · 70 Gordon St

Development pipeline — what's proposed in Manly Vale, and how far along it is

State-pipeline proposals (pre-DA — the biggest projects start here)

• 14 Koorala Street, Manly Vale — Shop - top housing development comprising ground floor retail and approximately 340 residential apartments (20% of which will be affordable for 15 years).
  Time & Place · Proposed — state-pipeline EOI (pre-DA, may change or lapse)

Major applications in the DA channel

Plus 26 smaller applications (renovations, single dwellings, signage) — 4 lodged, 12 approved, 8 determined, 2 withdrawn.

What this view cannot see

• Council DAs from the NSW Planning Portal open feed, matched within ~150 m of addresses we track — a proximity net, not a complete register.
• Verdicts (approved/refused) come from a dataset frozen in Nov 2023: anything determined after that shows “determined” without a published outcome. Check the application on the NSW Planning Portal for the current decision.
• The largest master-planned sites can proceed as State Significant Development or planning proposals and never appear as council DAs. State-pipeline EOIs shown here are proposals, not applications, and can change or lapse.
• No feed we hold ties a construction certificate to a specific application, so no project row here can honestly read “under construction” — “approved” never means “built”. Suburb-level construction-certificate volume appears in the DA-volume section.

Housing and jobs targets — NORTHERN BEACHES LGA

Under the NSW Government's 20-year Sydney plan, NORTHERN BEACHES has a five-year housing target of 5,900 new homes (2024–2029) and a jobs target of 12,500–30,500 additional jobs by 2046.

The housing target is the supply pipeline for the area: the number of new homes the state expects the council to plan capacity for, concentrated around the centres and station areas the Plan nominates. The jobs figure is published as an aspirational range and is not legislated the way housing targets are.

Source: The Sydney Plan, Appendix D — Housing and Employment Guidance (published 13 August 2026), licensed CC BY 4.0. © State of New South Wales and Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure 2026