The Property Brief — what the evidence shows. You draw the conclusion.
Confidence: Medium — based on 77 comparable auction sales (41 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±11% for this configuration · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2/69 Evans St | 2 bd · 1 ba | $3.25M | May 2025 |
| 7/104 Soldiers Av | 2 bd · 1 ba | $1.28M | Apr 2025 |
| 6/70 Harbord Rd | 2 bd · 1 ba | $1.22M | Apr 2025 |
| 28/40-42 Evans St | 2 bd · 1 ba | $1.5M | Apr 2025 |
| 3/15 Ocean View Rd | 2 bd · 1 ba | $1.62M | Mar 2025 |
| 3/72 Harbord Rd | 2 bd · 1 ba | $1.18M | Mar 2025 |
Suburb risk flags
crime index: 22 — below sydney average · ferries ~every 5 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye price model 2026-08-11-v5 — trained on 146,492 published auction sales; configuration-level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Freshwater — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Freshwater · postcode 2096
$850–$1000/wk is what 2-bed units in 2096 actually transact for (middle half of 93 bonds lodged, Q2 2026 · median $900/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).
2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $618 → $850/wk · +4% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for units in 2096, all bedroom counts pooled.
Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Growth trend — Freshwater units at auction
Too few same-bed sales for a measured growth rate yet. Recent quarterly sold medians (all unit sizes — thin samples move these):
2024Q3 $1070k (8) · 2024Q4 $1120k (4) · 2025Q1 $1157k (6) · 2025Q2 $1395k (4)
Suburb-level, from published auction results. No single building has enough sales for a block-level series, so this is the honest grain; sales-mix shifts move raw medians, and the measured rate (when shown) controls for bed count.
Published auction results at this address
| Auction week | Result | Price | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 July 2026 | Sold prior | withheld | Clarke & Humel Property |
From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.
Agencies' own published sales nearby — Freshwater, around 2 beds
| Address | Sold | Price | Beds | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/109 Wyuna Avenue | 25 Aug 2026 | $1,365,000 | 2 | Cunninghams |
| 3/2 Carlton Street | 15 Aug 2026 | $1,356,000 | 2 | Cunninghams |
| 15/111-113 Harbord Road | 29 July 2026 | $1,200,000 | 2 | Cunninghams |
| 11/40 Waine Street | 29 July 2026 | $1,090,000 | 2 | Cunninghams |
| 22 Wilson Street | 25 July 2026 | $3,180,000 | 3 | Cunninghams |
Prices as published on the selling agency's own website (their sold pages) — includes private-treaty sales the auction results never see. Only sales the agency chose to publish a figure for appear here.
Sale history — the official settled-sale record at this address
| Exchanged | Price | Change since prior sale |
|---|---|---|
| 3 July 2026 | $1,320,000 | — |
Settled-sale records from the NSW Valuer General's Property Sales Information. Dates are contract (exchange) dates; sales appear only once lodged, so the most recent months are incomplete and revise upward — never read the latest month as final. Two entries on one date are usually a single transaction recorded across parts. © State of New South Wales (Valuation NSW).
Planning & zoning — E1 Local Centre
A retail/commercial hub — shops and services at your door, but busier and noisier.
Height limit 11m (≈ 3 storeys) — the current legal ceiling for new building at this point under the LEP. Any proposal above it needs a variation or a rezoning — the kind of change the fast-track pipeline tracks.
Strata plan SP23069 · scheme parcel ~1,902 m² — A strata-titled scheme — the parcel area is the WHOLE scheme's land, not this unit's. From the NSW cadastre at this address's geocoded point.
Zone E1 (Local Centre) under the NORTHERN BEACHES LEP, from the NSW ePlanning layers at this address's geocoded point — a guide, not a parcel-level legal check. Confirm the exact lot at the NSW Planning Portal.
Development applications — at & near this address
| Where | Proposal | Status | Outcome | Est. cost | Lodged |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ~48 m · 20 Albert Street Freshwater 2096 | Alterations And Additions To Commercial Development, Change Of Use | Determined | Approved | $730k | 2021-08-30 |
| ~79 m · 9 Lawrence Street Freshwater 2096 | Alterations And Additions To Residential Development | Determined | Approved | $25k | 2020-10-13 |
| ~103 m · 2 Murray Road Freshwater 2096 | Dwelling House, Alterations Or Additions To An Existing Building Or Structure · 1 new dwelling | Under Assessment | not on record | $106k | 2026-07-14 |
| ~113 m · 38 Undercliff Road Freshwater 2096 | Dwelling, Pools / Decks / Fencing, Demolition · 1 new dwelling | Determined | Approved | $1.05M | 2020-11-24 |
| ~113 m · 38 Undercliff Road Freshwater 2096 | Subdivision | Determined | not on record | — | 2025-03-28 |
| ~147 m · 20 Hill Street Queenscliff 2096 | Dwelling House, Erection Of A New Structure, Residential Accommodation · 1 new dwelling | Determined | not on record | $2.39M | 2025-08-11 |
Development application data © NSW Department of Planning and Environment, used under CC BY 4.0. Matched at this exact address or within ~150 m of its geocoded point — proximity evidence, not a parcel-level check. Lodged means proposed, not approved or built. Outcome comes from a separate NSW dataset that stops in Nov 2023: applications determined after that, or still undetermined, read “not on record” — which means we don't know, never that it was refused. “Status” is the council's own workflow state and “Determined” on its own does not say which way it went. Verify any application on the NSW Planning Portal.
Construction risk — what no listing tells you
Building Commission NSW / Strata Community Association 2023 Strata Defects Survey: 53% of newly registered strata buildings reported at least one serious defect in common property (39% in the 2021 survey). Defects are common, not exceptional — and new does not mean safe (Opal Tower was under a year old).
Get an independent structural and strata inspection before you commit — the defect base rate makes it the single highest-value dollar in the purchase.
We cannot see inside a building — no one can from public records. This section states base rates and observable adjacency only, and will never call a building safe.
The building — its registered strata scheme
Strata plan SP12893 registered 1978 — the building is at least 48 years old · 4 lots in the scheme (small scheme — levies and decisions shared among few owners).
Registration is an age floor, not a build date — a converted building is older than its strata plan. Scheme records from the NSW Strata Hub. © State of New South Wales (Spatial Services, a business unit of the Department of Customer Service NSW). For current information go to spatial.nsw.gov.au.
What's changing in Freshwater — recent local signals
2026-04-10 — Aged care / seniors departure — 34 BRIGHTON STREET FRESHWATER 2096 ($8441k) (institutional-signals.json (PAN-626801, OnlineDA))
Dated public signals compiled for this suburb — openings, closures, site sales and institutional moves. Facts with sources, not forecasts.
School catchments
Harbord PS (primary) · The Forest HS (secondary)
2 primary schools within 2 km · ICSEA ~1122 — the socio-educational advantage of the school community (My School, national average ~1000): a demographic measure, never a results or quality score.
NSW DoE intake zones at this address's geocoded point — tighter than a suburb-level guess, but geocodes carry a few metres of error and boundaries change with reviews. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Green space nearby
Protected public recreation land within 250 m
Land zoned RE1 under the local environmental plan — reserved for public recreation, which protects it from being built over. The zoning doesn't say what's on it or how usable it is, and this layer doesn't carry park names.
Privately-zoned recreation land (RE2 — typically golf courses or club grounds) within 500 m. Private land: green outlook, not public open space.
Straight-line distance, not walking distance. NSW ePlanning planning layers (Land Zoning), CC BY. Distances are ladder buckets measured at the address's geocoded point.
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Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.