The Property Brief — what the evidence shows. You draw the conclusion.
Confidence: Low — based on 27 comparable auction sales (0 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±19% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · thin comparable support for this configuration — read the range as wider, not as a warning · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 Government Rd | 3 bd · 3 ba | $1.25M | Dec 2024 |
| 37 Government Rd | 3 bd · 3 ba | $1.25M | Nov 2024 |
| 72 Tomaree Rd | 3 bd · 2 ba | $1.26M | Oct 2024 |
| 37 Ocean Beach Rd | 3 bd · 2 ba | $875k | July 2024 |
Suburb risk flags
crime index: 48 — around sydney average
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye price model 2026-08-11-v5 — trained on 146,492 published auction sales; configuration-level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Shoal Bay — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Shoal Bay · postcode 2315
$625–$700/wk is what 3-bed units in 2315 actually transact for (middle half of 23 bonds lodged, last 12 mo · median $660/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).
2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $330 → $550/wk · +7% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for units in 2315, all bedroom counts pooled.
Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Growth trend — Shoal Bay units at auction
Not enough Shoal Bay unit auctions on record to show a trend — this fills in as the archive grows.
Suburb-level, from published auction results. No single building has enough sales for a block-level series, so this is the honest grain; sales-mix shifts move raw medians, and the measured rate (when shown) controls for bed count.
Published auction results at this address
| Auction week | Result | Price | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 July 2026 | Passed in | withheld | First National Port Stephens |
| 27 June 2026 | Postponed | withheld | First National Port Stephens |
From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.
⏭ It passed in — what happens next — the question the listing stops at
Across Sydney, homes that passed in and later sold went for about 6% less than comparable homes that sold under the hammer.
Half sold within 33 days, 76% within three months.
Like-for-like within bedroom and property-type groups · 63 comparison groups across Sydney, sales settled in the last two years. Based on passed-in homes that later sold. Homes that never sold aren't in the figure, so read this as what a sale fetches — not what the home is worth. Passing in is a negotiating position, not a verdict — this is evidence about outcomes, never advice on what to offer.
Planning & zoning — R2 Low Density Residential
Houses and dual occupancies. A protected low-rise street — little chance of towers next door.
Height limit 9m (≈ 2 storeys) — the current legal ceiling for new building at this point under the LEP. Any proposal above it needs a variation or a rezoning — the kind of change the fast-track pipeline tracks.
Zone R2 (Low Density Residential) under the PORT STEPHENS LEP, from the NSW ePlanning layers at this address's geocoded point — a guide, not a parcel-level legal check. Confirm the exact lot at the NSW Planning Portal.
Construction risk — what no listing tells you
Building Commission NSW / Strata Community Association 2023 Strata Defects Survey: 53% of newly registered strata buildings reported at least one serious defect in common property (39% in the 2021 survey). Defects are common, not exceptional — and new does not mean safe (Opal Tower was under a year old).
Get an independent structural and strata inspection before you commit — the defect base rate makes it the single highest-value dollar in the purchase.
We cannot see inside a building — no one can from public records. This section states base rates and observable adjacency only, and will never call a building safe.
The building — its registered strata scheme
Strata plan SP39432 registered 1991 — the building is at least 35 years old · 2 lots in the scheme (small scheme — levies and decisions shared among few owners).
Registration is an age floor, not a build date — a converted building is older than its strata plan. Scheme records from the NSW Strata Hub. © State of New South Wales (Spatial Services, a business unit of the Department of Customer Service NSW). For current information go to spatial.nsw.gov.au.
School catchments
Shoal Bay PS (primary) · Tomaree HS (secondary)
NSW DoE intake zones at this address's geocoded point — tighter than a suburb-level guess, but geocodes carry a few metres of error and boundaries change with reviews. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.
Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.