The Property Brief — what the evidence shows. You draw the conclusion.
Confidence: Low — based on 85 comparable auction sales (0 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±21% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · thin comparable support for this configuration — read the range as wider, not as a warning · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Charlotte Gr | 5 bd · 3 ba | $2.75M | July 2025 |
| 12 Grandview Ct | 5 bd · 2 ba | $2.7M | June 2025 |
| 29 Arabella Pl | 5 bd · 3 ba | $2.7M | June 2025 |
| 6 Robertson Pl | 5 bd · 2 ba | $2.6M | May 2025 |
| 31 Kimberley Ct | 5 bd · 2 ba | $2.3M | May 2025 |
| 4 Domain Ct | 5 bd · 3 ba | $3.01M | Apr 2025 |
Suburb risk flags
crime index: 22 — below sydney average · metro ~every 4 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye price model 2026-08-11-v5 — trained on 146,492 published auction sales; configuration-level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Bella Vista — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Bella Vista · postcode 2153
$1050–$1300/wk is what 5-bed houses in 2153 actually transact for (middle half of 29 bonds lodged, Q2 2026 · median $1200/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).
2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $585 → $900/wk · +8% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for houses in 2153, all bedroom counts pooled.
Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Published auction results at this address
| Auction week | Result | Price | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 July 2026 | Sold | $2,560,000 | _Wiseberry Baulkham Hills |
From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.
Agencies' own published sales nearby — Bella Vista, around 5 beds
| Address | Sold | Price | Beds | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Magney Place | by 16 Aug 2026 | $2,450,000 | 5 | Laing+Simmons |
Prices as published on the selling agency's own website (their sold pages) — includes private-treaty sales the auction results never see. Only sales the agency chose to publish a figure for appear here.
School catchments
Matthew Pearce PS (primary) · Model Farms HS (secondary)
1 primary school within 2 km · ICSEA ~1092 — the socio-educational advantage of the school community (My School, national average ~1000): a demographic measure, never a results or quality score.
Suburb-centre approximation for Bella Vista — addresses near a boundary can differ. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.
Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.