The Property Brief — what the evidence shows. You draw the conclusion.
Confidence: Low — based on 72 comparable auction sales (0 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±27% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · thin comparable support for this configuration — read the range as wider, not as a warning · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Dock Rd | 4 bd · 3 ba | $5.35M | Apr 2025 |
| 47 Louisa Rd | 4 bd · 2 ba | $4.6M | Mar 2025 |
| 25 Louisa Rd | 4 bd · 2 ba | $3.52M | Mar 2025 |
Suburb risk flags
crime index: 42 — around sydney average · ferries ~every 15 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye price model 2026-08-11-v5 — trained on 146,492 published auction sales; configuration-level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Birchgrove — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Birchgrove · postcode 2041
$1598–$2175/wk is what 4-bed houses in 2041 actually transact for (middle half of 31 bonds lodged, last 12 mo · median $1875/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).
2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $900 → $1300/wk · +5% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for houses in 2041, all bedroom counts pooled.
Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Published auction results at this address
| Auction week | Result | Price | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Aug 2026 | Withdrawn | withheld | BresicWhitney Balmain |
From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.
Agencies' own published sales nearby — Birchgrove, around 4 beds
| Address | Sold | Price | Beds | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/45 Wharf Road | 14 Jan 2025 | $3,400,000 | 3 | Harris Partners |
| 5/45 Wharf Road | 11 Oct 2024 | $3,200,000 | 3 | Harris Partners |
| 41 Ballast Point Road | 27 July 2024 | $3,810,000 | 4 | Harris Partners |
| 9 Reuss Street | 3 Nov 2023 | $2,400,000 | 3 | Harris Partners |
| 8 Dock Road | 1 July 2022 | $3,000,000 | 3 | Harris Partners |
Prices as published on the selling agency's own website (their sold pages) — includes private-treaty sales the auction results never see. Only sales the agency chose to publish a figure for appear here.
↩ Withdrawn from auction — what happens next
Withdrawn from auction isn't the end of a sale — of withdrawn Sydney homes that went on to sell, half sold within 65 days.
63% sold within three months of the scheduled auction.
1,535 withdrawn-then-sold homes across Sydney. We don't publish a price figure for withdrawn homes: the measured gap is too unstable to stand behind, and a number we can't defend is worse than none. Based on withdrawn homes that later sold. Homes that never sold aren't in the figure — withdrawal sometimes means a private deal was already done, and sometimes means the listing simply ended.
School catchments
Birchgrove PS (primary) · SSC Balmain (secondary)
4 primary schools within 2 km · ICSEA ~1137 — the socio-educational advantage of the school community (My School, national average ~1000): a demographic measure, never a results or quality score.
Suburb-centre approximation for Birchgrove — addresses near a boundary can differ. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.
Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.