15/194 Lawrence St · Alexandria NSW 2015

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Withdrawn from sale (18 July 2026)

2 bed · 2 bath · 1 car · ApartmentUnitFlat

The campaign was withdrawn before a sale was published.

The Property Brief — what the evidence shows. You draw the conclusion.

CONSERVATIVE
$1.06M
the calibrated floor
LIKELY FAIR RANGE
$1.06M–$1.31M
around $1.19M mid
STRETCH CAP
$1.31M
$1.47M on the wider 80% band

Confidence: High — based on 247 comparable auction sales (69 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±11% for this configuration · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss

Comparable auction sales

AddressConfigSoldWhen
9/145 Belmont St2 bd · 1 ba$940kJuly 2025
406/86 Lawrence St2 bd · 2 ba$1.47MJuly 2025
1/31 Gerard St2 bd · 1 ba$1.15MJune 2025
B613/222 Botany Rd2 bd · 1 ba$950kMay 2025

Suburb risk flags

flood exposure 38% of the suburb · bushfire exposure 0% · aircraft noise low · crime index: 100 — well above sydney average · 11 min walk to Erskineville · ~7 min train to the CBD · trains ~every 8 min at peak

Where every number comes from
  • Fair value: AI PropertyEye price model 2026-08-11-v5 — trained on 146,492 published auction sales; configuration-level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
  • Comps: published Domain auction results for Alexandria — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
  • Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment

Local rents — postcode 2015 units, new tenancies

$805/week median new-tenancy unit rent in 2015 (2026Q2, 188 bonds lodged).

The rent is real (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY) but it pools every bedroom count in the postcode and this is a 2-bed — so we don't derive a yield % from it: a ratio of two different grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents also run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.

Growth trend — Alexandria units at auction

Measured like-for-like growth ≈ 3.1%/yr — 2-bed sold-price medians across 17 quarters (105 sales).

Suburb-level, from published auction results. No single building has enough sales for a block-level series, so this is the honest grain; sales-mix shifts move raw medians, and the measured rate (when shown) controls for bed count.

Published auction results at this address

Auction weekResultPriceAgency
18 July 2026Withdrawnwithheld The Agency

From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.

Agencies' own published sales nearby — Alexandria, around 2 beds

AddressSoldPriceBedsAgency
1/1a Mandible Street14 Aug 2025$682,000Harris Partners
31/30-44 Garden Street21 Jan 2022$1,200,0002Harris Partners

Prices as published on the selling agency's own website (their sold pages) — includes private-treaty sales the auction results never see. Only sales the agency chose to publish a figure for appear here.

↩ Withdrawn from auction — what happens next

Withdrawn from auction isn't the end of a sale — of withdrawn Sydney homes that went on to sell, half sold within 65 days.

63% sold within three months of the scheduled auction.

1,547 withdrawn-then-sold homes across Sydney. We don't publish a price figure for withdrawn homes: the measured gap is too unstable to stand behind, and a number we can't defend is worse than none. Based on withdrawn homes that later sold. Homes that never sold aren't in the figure — withdrawal sometimes means a private deal was already done, and sometimes means the listing simply ended.

Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?

Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.

Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.