The Property Brief — what the evidence shows. You draw the conclusion.
Confidence: Low — based on 52 comparable auction sales (0 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±21% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · thin comparable support for this configuration — read the range as wider, not as a warning · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Hobart Pl | 4 bd · 3 ba | $1.98M | June 2025 |
| 7 Stanley Pl | 4 bd · 2 ba | $1.68M | May 2025 |
| 110 Bignell St | 4 bd · 2 ba | $2.02M | Apr 2025 |
| 2 Norval Pl | 4 bd · 3 ba | $1.53M | Feb 2025 |
Suburb risk flags
crime index: 17 — below sydney average · trains ~every 10 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye price model 2026-08-11-v5 — trained on 146,492 published auction sales; configuration-level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Illawong — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Illawong · postcode 2234
$1100–$1300/wk is what 4-bed houses in 2234 actually transact for (middle half of 16 bonds lodged, Q2 2026 · median $1160/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).
2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $715 → $1000/wk · +12% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for houses in 2234, all bedroom counts pooled.
Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Development potential — how Sutherland Shire Council treats the work you might do
Refuses 5.87% of the development applications it decides · off-street parking 6.44% (determinations to Nov 2023).
The full outlook — every category with confidence ranges, which plan elements come unstuck, and the heritage effect by category — is under Explore the area.
Published auction results at this address
| Auction week | Result | Price | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 July 2026 | Withdrawn | withheld | Ray White Sutherland Shire - Menai |
From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.
↩ Withdrawn from auction — what happens next
Withdrawn from auction isn't the end of a sale — of withdrawn Sydney homes that went on to sell, half sold within 65 days.
63% sold within three months of the scheduled auction.
1,535 withdrawn-then-sold homes across Sydney. We don't publish a price figure for withdrawn homes: the measured gap is too unstable to stand behind, and a number we can't defend is worse than none. Based on withdrawn homes that later sold. Homes that never sold aren't in the figure — withdrawal sometimes means a private deal was already done, and sometimes means the listing simply ended.
Sale history — the official settled-sale record at this address
| Exchanged | Price | Change since prior sale |
|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov 1994 | $367,500 | — |
Settled-sale records from the NSW Valuer General's Property Sales Information. Dates are contract (exchange) dates; sales appear only once lodged, so the most recent months are incomplete and revise upward — never read the latest month as final. Two entries on one date are usually a single transaction recorded across parts. © State of New South Wales (Valuation NSW).
Planning & zoning — C3 Environmental Management
Environmentally sensitive land — development is constrained.
Heritage-listed — Old Illawarra Road. This building is individually heritage-listed by council. External changes need heritage approval and demolition is off the table — protective, but it limits what you can do.
Registered lots in Illawong run 640–1,180 m² (middle 80% of 26 registered parcels). This one is 1,047 m² — inside that range.
Whether a block this size can be subdivided or redeveloped is a separate question: minimum lot size, setbacks and the council's DCP controls decide it, and this page doesn't check them. One point per registered parcel, so a tower's parent lot counts once — not once per unit. Confirm the parcel and its controls with the council before you inspect.
Zone C3 (Environmental Management) under the SUTHERLAND SHIRE LEP · heritage from the NSW Heritage Map layer, as recorded against this property in the NSW Valuer General's valuation record — a guide, not a parcel-level legal check. Confirm the exact lot at the NSW Planning Portal.
Development outlook — how often Sutherland Shire Council has refused this kind of work
| If you wanted to… | Refused | vs NSW | Applications decided |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alterations & additions | 3.24% (2.43–4.31%) | 1.2× (NSW 2.63%) | 45 refused of 1,387 · 22 approved with conditions |
| Off-street parking | 6.44% (3.94–10.35%) | 2.5× (NSW 2.58%) | 15 refused of 233 |
| Pool, deck or fence | 3.81% (2.86–5.06%) | 2.2× (NSW 1.73%) | 45 refused of 1,181 · 14 approved with conditions |
| Granny flat | 16.23% (11.24–22.87%) | 3.6× (NSW 4.45%) | 25 refused of 154 · 4 approved with conditions |
| Knock down & rebuild | 23.81% (13.48–38.53%) | 2.1× (NSW 11.55%) | 10 refused of 42 · 1 approved with conditions |
Across all application types Sutherland Shire Council refused 5.87% (5.16–6.68%) of the 3,711 development applications it decided.
Where these applications come unstuck
The refusal rate above says how strict the council is. This says which part of a plan is exposed — measured across all 192,284 NSW development applications, not just this council. Each is an association: plenty of applications carrying these elements are approved, and nothing here is a verdict on a proposal you haven't made yet.
- Alterations & additions — a new vehicle crossing cut into the front boundary (refused 7.27% vs 2.59% for this kind of work generally — 2.8×, on 220 applications); excavation or a new lower level (refused 6.71% vs 2.54% for this kind of work generally — 2.64×, on 611 applications)
- Off-street parking — a new vehicle crossing cut into the front boundary (refused 8.45% vs 2.42% for this kind of work generally — 3.49×, on 284 applications)
- Pool, deck or fence — excavation or a new lower level (refused 6.22% vs 1.61% for this kind of work generally — 3.88×, on 659 applications); full demolition and rebuild (refused 4.97% vs 1.6% for this kind of work generally — 3.12×, on 965 applications)
- Knock down & rebuild — excavation or a new lower level (refused 25.78% vs 9.36% for this kind of work generally — 2.75×, on 256 applications); full demolition and rebuild (refused 19.91% vs 10.46% for this kind of work generally — 1.9×, on 221 applications)
Because this address sits in a heritage listing
Heritage does not make everything harder — it depends entirely on what you want to do, and for some work it makes approval more likely. Measured across NSW by category:
- Alterations & additions — heritage listing raises the refusal rate: 4.39% on heritage-affected land vs 2.27% elsewhere
- Off-street parking — heritage listing raises the refusal rate: 7.37% on heritage-affected land vs 2.29% elsewhere
- Pool, deck or fence — heritage listing raises the refusal rate: 4.56% on heritage-affected land vs 1.62% elsewhere
- Granny flat — heritage listing raises the refusal rate: 9.63% on heritage-affected land vs 4.4% elsewhere
- Knock down & rebuild — heritage listing lowers the refusal rate: 7.1% on heritage-affected land vs 12.68% elsewhere — applications here are typically pre-advised and conservative
These are NSW-wide rates for heritage-affected applications, not Sutherland Shire Council-specific, and they describe applications rather than this property. The zoning section above records the actual listing at this address.
Determinations lodged on the NSW Planning Portal up to Nov 2023 — the published dataset stops there, so this is a record of how the council has behaved, not a forecast and not a statement about any particular application. Rates cover development applications only; modifications and reviews of an earlier decision are excluded. A rate is shown only where at least 30 applications were decided — below that the counts are given instead, because a percentage from a handful of decisions is not a fact about a council. "Approved with conditions" is a consent, not a refusal, and is never counted as one.
School catchments
Tharawal PS (primary) · Menai HS (secondary)
5 primary schools within 2 km · ICSEA ~1075 — the socio-educational advantage of the school community (My School, national average ~1000): a demographic measure, never a results or quality score.
NSW DoE intake zones at this address's geocoded point — tighter than a suburb-level guess, but geocodes carry a few metres of error and boundaries change with reviews. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
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Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.