Is the asking price plausible?
This is a comparison with the evidence we hold, not a valuation or a recommended offer.
Confidence: High — based on 175 comparable auction sales (50 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±11% for this configuration · priced from this property's own records: building age, land value, previous sale · the model's typical miss is ~10% against published results — every hit and miss
How this estimate was made
- Method: AI PropertyEye tree model · trained through 2026-09-03
- Inputs used for this home: priced from this property's own records: building age, land value, previous sale
- Comparable support: 175 sales in the wider suburb/type pool; 50 of this exact configuration
- When to be more cautious: Condition, aspect, renovation and the contract are not model inputs and can move the eventual sale price.
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/46 Avenue Rd | 2 bd · 1 ba | $945k | Sept 2025 |
| 2/23 Bapaume Rd | 2 bd · 1 ba | $1.91M | June 2025 |
| 3/162 Raglan St | 2 bd · 1 ba | $1.35M | June 2025 |
Suburb risk flags
crime index: 26 — below sydney average · 26 min walk to Mosman Bay Wharf · ~18 min ferry to the CBD · ferries ~every 15 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye tree model 2026-09-02-v7-price-model-v6-full-grid, trained through 2026-09-03 — trained on 169,356 published auction sales; priced per address where this home's own records reach the model (see "How this estimate was made"), otherwise at configuration level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Mosman — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
What to inspect before you offer
- Condition, aspect, renovation and the contract — these can materially change price, and the estimate cannot see them.
- The strata scheme: registration is recorded in 1963 and has 54 lots; ask for the strata report, planned works and levies.
- Building condition: public records cannot establish that a building is defect-free; inspect independently.
These are due-diligence prompts, not a verdict on this property.
Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Mosman · postcode 2088
$758–$1072/wk is what 2-bed units in 2088 actually transact for (middle half of 112 bonds lodged, Q2 2026 · median $870/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).
2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $600 → $820/wk · +6% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for units in 2088, all bedroom counts pooled.
Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Growth trend — Mosman units at auction
Measured like-for-like growth ≈ -2.4%/yr — 2-bed sold-price medians across 17 quarters (63 sales).
Suburb-level, from published auction results. No single building has enough sales for a block-level series, so this is the honest grain; sales-mix shifts move raw medians, and the measured rate (when shown) controls for bed count.
Published auction results at this address
| Auction week | Result | Price | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr 2026 | Sold after | $1,195,000 | — |
From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.
Agencies' own published sales nearby — Mosman, around 2 beds
| Address | Sold | Price | Beds | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31 Mosman Street | 8 Sept 2023 | $831,000 | 1 | Harris Partners |
Prices as published on the selling agency's own website (their sold pages) — includes private-treaty sales the auction results never see. Only sales the agency chose to publish a figure for appear here.
Sale history — the official settled-sale record at this address
| Exchanged | Price | Change since prior sale |
|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr 2026 | $1,195,000 | — |
Settled-sale records from the NSW Valuer General's Property Sales Information. Dates are contract (exchange) dates; sales appear only once lodged, so the most recent months are incomplete and revise upward — never read the latest month as final. Two entries on one date are usually a single transaction recorded across parts. © State of New South Wales (Valuation NSW).
Construction risk — what no listing tells you
Building Commission NSW / Strata Community Association 2023 Strata Defects Survey: 53% of newly registered strata buildings reported at least one serious defect in common property (39% in the 2021 survey). Defects are common, not exceptional — and new does not mean safe (Opal Tower was under a year old).
Get an independent structural and strata inspection before you commit — the defect base rate makes it the single highest-value dollar in the purchase.
We cannot see inside a building — no one can from public records. This section states base rates and observable adjacency only, and will never call a building safe.
The building — its registered strata scheme
Strata plan SP271 registered 1963 — the building is at least 63 years old · 54 lots in the scheme.
Registration is an age floor, not a build date — a converted building is older than its strata plan. Scheme records from the NSW Strata Hub. © State of New South Wales (Spatial Services, a business unit of the Department of Customer Service NSW). For current information go to spatial.nsw.gov.au.
What's changing in Mosman — recent local signals
2026-08-27 — Development site — listing's own words: "STCA" (90 Spencer Road, Mosman, NSW 2088) (listing rea-152166572 (rea), first seen 2026-08-27)
2026-08-26 — DA-approved site — listing's own words: "DA approved" (98 Holt Avenue, Mosman, NSW 2088) (listing rea-152149872 (rea), first seen 2026-08-26)
2026-08-22 — Development site — listing's own words: "STCA" (2 Kahibah Road, Mosman, NSW 2088) (listing rea-151980276 (rea), first seen 2026-08-22)
Dated public signals compiled for this suburb — openings, closures, site sales and institutional moves. Facts with sources, not forecasts.
School catchments
Mosman PS (primary) · Mosman HS (secondary)
3 primary schools within 2 km · ICSEA ~1161 — the socio-educational advantage of the school community (My School, national average ~1000): a demographic measure, never a results or quality score.
Suburb-centre approximation for Mosman — addresses near a boundary can differ. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.
Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.