The Property Brief — what the evidence shows. You draw the conclusion.
Confidence: Low — based on 233 comparable auction sales (4 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±11% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Blenman Av | 4 bd · 3 ba | $2.06M | July 2025 |
| 43 Kelly St | 4 bd · 2 ba | $1.52M | Apr 2025 |
Suburb risk flags
crime index: 47 — around sydney average · trains ~every 9 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye price model 2026-08-11-v5 — trained on 146,492 published auction sales; configuration-level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Punchbowl — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Punchbowl · postcode 2196
$850–$1162/wk is what 4-bed houses in 2196 actually transact for (middle half of 64 bonds lodged, last 12 mo · median $950/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).
2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $540 → $800/wk · +4% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for houses in 2196, all bedroom counts pooled.
Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Published auction results at this address
| Auction week | Result | Price | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 2026 | Postponed | withheld | Richard Matthews Real Estate |
From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.
Sale history — the official settled-sale record at this address
| Exchanged | Price | Change since prior sale |
|---|---|---|
| 17 May 2025 | $1,555,000 | — |
Settled-sale records from the NSW Valuer General's Property Sales Information. Dates are contract (exchange) dates; sales appear only once lodged, so the most recent months are incomplete and revise upward — never read the latest month as final. Two entries on one date are usually a single transaction recorded across parts. © State of New South Wales (Valuation NSW).
What's changing in Punchbowl — recent local signals
2026-04-24 — Punchbowl listed under TOD (standard) — controls from 2026-04-24 (state-fiat-precincts.json (https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/policy-and-legislation/housing/transport-oriented-development-program/transport-oriented-development))
2026-03-13 — Childcare departure — 19 SUNNY CRESCENT PUNCHBOWL 2196 ($4926k) (institutional-signals.json (PAN-620921, OnlineDA))
2025-08-11 — Childcare departure — 38 GOWRIE AVENUE PUNCHBOWL 2196 ($3122k) (institutional-signals.json (PAN-559919, OnlineDA))
Dated public signals compiled for this suburb — openings, closures, site sales and institutional moves. Facts with sources, not forecasts.
School catchments
Punchbowl PS (primary) · Punchbowl BHS (secondary)
5 primary schools within 2 km · ICSEA ~975 — the socio-educational advantage of the school community (My School, national average ~1000): a demographic measure, never a results or quality score.
Suburb-centre approximation for Punchbowl — addresses near a boundary can differ. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
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Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.