The Property Brief — what the evidence shows. You draw the conclusion.
Confidence: Low — based on 21 comparable auction sales · model runs ±11% for this configuration · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3/43-45 Church St | 2 bd · 2 ba | $1.67M | Feb 2025 |
| 4/339 Catherine St | 2 bd · 1 ba | $1.65M | Feb 2025 |
| 45 Maida St | 2 bd · 2 ba | $1.88M | Sept 2024 |
Suburb risk flags
crime index: 52 — around sydney average · light rail ~every 6 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye price model 2026-08-11-v5 — trained on 146,492 published auction sales; configuration-level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Lilyfield — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Lilyfield · postcode 2040
$685–$950/wk is what 2-bed units in 2040 actually transact for (middle half of 47 bonds lodged, Q2 2026 · median $800/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).
2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $515 → $680/wk · +5% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for units in 2040, all bedroom counts pooled.
Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Growth trend — Lilyfield units at auction
Not enough Lilyfield unit auctions on record to show a trend — this fills in as the archive grows.
Suburb-level, from published auction results. No single building has enough sales for a block-level series, so this is the honest grain; sales-mix shifts move raw medians, and the measured rate (when shown) controls for bed count.
Published auction results at this address
| Auction week | Result | Price | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Aug 2026 | Sold | $1,420,000 | BresicWhitney Balmain |
From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.
Agencies' own published sales nearby — Lilyfield, around 2 beds
| Address | Sold | Price | Beds | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/295 Lilyfield Road | 17 July 2026 | $1,030,000 | 2 | Harris Partners |
| 121 Charles Street | 1 Aug 2025 | $3,210,000 | 3 | Harris Partners |
| 445 Balmain Road | 26 May 2024 | $1,925,000 | 3 | Harris Partners |
| 2/34-38 Paling Street | 30 Nov 2023 | $1,320,000 | 2 | Harris Partners |
| 2/23 Ilka Street | 16 Nov 2023 | $1,375,000 | 2 | Harris Partners |
Prices as published on the selling agency's own website (their sold pages) — includes private-treaty sales the auction results never see. Only sales the agency chose to publish a figure for appear here.
Sale history — the official settled-sale record at this address
| Exchanged | Price | Change since prior sale |
|---|---|---|
| 15 Nov 2020 | $979,000 | — |
Settled-sale records from the NSW Valuer General's Property Sales Information. Dates are contract (exchange) dates; sales appear only once lodged, so the most recent months are incomplete and revise upward — never read the latest month as final. Two entries on one date are usually a single transaction recorded across parts. © State of New South Wales (Valuation NSW).
Construction risk — what no listing tells you
Building Commission NSW / Strata Community Association 2023 Strata Defects Survey: 53% of newly registered strata buildings reported at least one serious defect in common property (39% in the 2021 survey). Defects are common, not exceptional — and new does not mean safe (Opal Tower was under a year old).
Get an independent structural and strata inspection before you commit — the defect base rate makes it the single highest-value dollar in the purchase.
We cannot see inside a building — no one can from public records. This section states base rates and observable adjacency only, and will never call a building safe.
The building — its registered strata scheme
Strata plan SP62645 registered 2000 — the building is at least 26 years old · 5 lots in the scheme (small scheme — levies and decisions shared among few owners).
Registration is an age floor, not a build date — a converted building is older than its strata plan. Scheme records from the NSW Strata Hub. © State of New South Wales (Spatial Services, a business unit of the Department of Customer Service NSW). For current information go to spatial.nsw.gov.au.
School catchments
Orange Grove PS (primary) · SSC Balmain (secondary)
7 primary schools within 2 km · ICSEA ~1129 — the socio-educational advantage of the school community (My School, national average ~1000): a demographic measure, never a results or quality score.
Suburb-centre approximation for Lilyfield — addresses near a boundary can differ. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.
Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.