The Property Brief — what the evidence shows. You draw the conclusion.
Confidence: Low — based on 35 comparable auction sales (1 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±16% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · thin comparable support for this configuration — read the range as wider, not as a warning · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2/34-40 Spencer St | 3 bd · 2 ba | $3.03M | Sept 2025 |
| 1/567-569 Old South Head Rd | 3 bd · 2 ba | $1.6M | Nov 2024 |
Suburb risk flags
crime index: 23 — below sydney average · 11 min walk to Rose Bay Wharf · ~25 min ferry to the CBD · ferries ~every 20 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye price model 2026-08-11-v5 — trained on 146,492 published auction sales; configuration-level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Rose Bay — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
Local rents — postcode 2029 units, new tenancies
$975/week median new-tenancy unit rent in 2029 (2026Q2, 131 bonds lodged).
The rent is real (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY) but it pools every bedroom count in the postcode and this is a 3-bed — so we don't derive a yield % from it: a ratio of two different grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents also run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Growth trend — Rose Bay units at auction
Not enough Rose Bay unit auctions on record to show a trend — this fills in as the archive grows.
Suburb-level, from published auction results. No single building has enough sales for a block-level series, so this is the honest grain; sales-mix shifts move raw medians, and the measured rate (when shown) controls for bed count.
Published auction results at this address
| Auction week | Result | Price | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Aug 2026 | Sold prior | withheld | Ray White Double Bay |
From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.
Planning & zoning — MU1 Mixed Use
Shops/offices below, apartments above. Walkable and lively, but denser and busier.
Zone MU1 (Mixed Use) under the WOOLLAHRA LEP, from the NSW ePlanning layers at this address's geocoded point — a guide, not a parcel-level legal check. Confirm the exact lot at the NSW Planning Portal.
Development applications — at & near this address
| Where | Proposal | Status | Outcome | Est. cost | Lodged |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ~34 m · 515 Old South Head Road Rose Bay 2029 | Signage, Alterations Or Additions To An Existing Building Or Structure, Minor Building Alterations (External) | Determined | not on record | $47k | 2025-07-25 |
| ~69 m · 525 Old South Head Road Rose Bay 2029 | Demolition, Shop Top Housing, Erection Of A New Structure · 8 new dwellings | Determined | not on record | $6.86M | 2024-11-05 |
| ~80 m · 6 Beaumont Street Rose Bay 2029 | Subdivision | Additional Information Requested | not on record | — | 2026-06-03 |
| ~84 m · 9 Beaumont Street Rose Bay 2029 | Balconies, Decks, Patios, Terraces Or Verandahs, Demolition, Garages, Carports And Car Parking Spaces · 1 new dwelling | Determined | Approved | $11k | 2020-10-01 |
| ~98 m · 35 Wilberforce Avenue Rose Bay 2029 | Residential Flat Building, Erection Of A New Structure · 31 new dwellings | Under Assessment | not on record | $28.56M | 2026-05-28 |
| ~111 m · 488-492 Old South Head Road Rose Bay 2029 | Other | Determined | not on record | $560k | 2023-02-16 |
Development application data © NSW Department of Planning and Environment, used under CC BY 4.0. Matched at this exact address or within ~150 m of its geocoded point — proximity evidence, not a parcel-level check. Lodged means proposed, not approved or built. Outcome comes from a separate NSW dataset that stops in Nov 2023: applications determined after that, or still undetermined, read “not on record” — which means we don't know, never that it was refused. “Status” is the council's own workflow state and “Determined” on its own does not say which way it went. Verify any application on the NSW Planning Portal.
Construction risk — what no listing tells you
Building Commission NSW / Strata Community Association 2023 Strata Defects Survey: 53% of newly registered strata buildings reported at least one serious defect in common property (39% in the 2021 survey). Defects are common, not exceptional — and new does not mean safe (Opal Tower was under a year old).
Get an independent structural and strata inspection before you commit — the defect base rate makes it the single highest-value dollar in the purchase.
We cannot see inside a building — no one can from public records. This section states base rates and observable adjacency only, and will never call a building safe.
The building — its registered strata scheme
Strata plan SP66476 registered 2001 — the building is at least 25 years old · 3 lots in the scheme (small scheme — levies and decisions shared among few owners).
Registration is an age floor, not a build date — a converted building is older than its strata plan. Scheme records from the NSW Strata Hub. © State of New South Wales (Spatial Services, a business unit of the Department of Customer Service NSW). For current information go to spatial.nsw.gov.au.
School catchments
Rose Bay PS (primary) · Rose Bay SC (secondary)
3 primary schools within 2 km · ICSEA ~1129 — the socio-educational advantage of the school community (My School, national average ~1000): a demographic measure, never a results or quality score.
NSW DoE intake zones at this address's geocoded point — tighter than a suburb-level guess, but geocodes carry a few metres of error and boundaries change with reviews. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.
Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.