The Property Brief — what the evidence shows. You draw the conclusion.
Confidence: Low — based on 149 comparable auction sales (19 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±12% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1/9 Uranus Rd | 3 bd · 1 ba | $1.15M | June 2025 |
| 65 Courtney Rd | 3 bd · 2 ba | $1.33M | June 2025 |
| 27 Spring St | 3 bd · 1 ba | $1.66M | May 2025 |
| 22 Leader St | 3 bd · 2 ba | $1.58M | May 2025 |
Suburb risk flags
crime index: 34 — below sydney average · trains ~every 9 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye price model 2026-08-11-v5 — trained on 146,492 published auction sales; configuration-level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Padstow — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Padstow · postcode 2211
$580/week median new-tenancy rent for units in 2211 (2026Q2, 19 bonds lodged — all bedroom counts pooled).
2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $430 → $580/wk · +10% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for units in 2211, all bedroom counts pooled.
Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Growth trend — Padstow units at auction
Not enough Padstow unit auctions on record to show a trend — this fills in as the archive grows.
Suburb-level, from published auction results. No single building has enough sales for a block-level series, so this is the honest grain; sales-mix shifts move raw medians, and the measured rate (when shown) controls for bed count.
Published auction results at this address
| Auction week | Result | Price | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Aug 2026 | Sold prior | $1,650,000 | McGrath Revesby |
From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.
Construction risk — what no listing tells you
Building Commission NSW / Strata Community Association 2023 Strata Defects Survey: 53% of newly registered strata buildings reported at least one serious defect in common property (39% in the 2021 survey). Defects are common, not exceptional — and new does not mean safe (Opal Tower was under a year old).
Get an independent structural and strata inspection before you commit — the defect base rate makes it the single highest-value dollar in the purchase.
We cannot see inside a building — no one can from public records. This section states base rates and observable adjacency only, and will never call a building safe.
What's changing in Padstow — recent local signals
2026-07-27 — Education invest — 15 ENTERPRISE AVENUE PADSTOW 2211 ($927k) (institutional-signals.json (PAN-659547, OnlineDA))
2025-06-27 — Childcare new — 12 SEGERS AVENUE PADSTOW 2211 ($1619k) (institutional-signals.json (PAN-548119, OnlineDA))
Dated public signals compiled for this suburb — openings, closures, site sales and institutional moves. Facts with sources, not forecasts.
School catchments
Padstow NPS (primary) · East Hls GTHS (secondary)
6 primary schools within 2 km · ICSEA ~1005 — the socio-educational advantage of the school community (My School, national average ~1000): a demographic measure, never a results or quality score.
Suburb-centre approximation for Padstow — addresses near a boundary can differ. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.
Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.