The Property Brief — what the evidence shows. You draw the conclusion.
Confidence: Low — based on 55 comparable auction sales (0 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±21% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · thin comparable support for this configuration — read the range as wider, not as a warning · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 Jaffa Rd | 4 bd · 2 ba | $1.81M | Mar 2025 |
| 9 Jenner Rd | 4 bd · 2 ba | $2.78M | Mar 2025 |
| 38 Jaffa Rd | 4 bd · 2 ba | $2.83M | July 2024 |
| 31 Bellenden Pl | 4 bd · 2 ba | $2.07M | July 2024 |
Suburb risk flags
crime index: 28 — below sydney average
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye price model 2026-08-11-v5 — trained on 146,492 published auction sales; configuration-level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Dural — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Dural · postcode 2158
$996–$1250/wk is what 4-bed houses in 2158 actually transact for (middle half of 30 bonds lodged, last 12 mo · median $1175/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).
2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $660 → $865/wk · +11% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for houses in 2158, all bedroom counts pooled.
Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Published auction results at this address
| Auction week | Result | Price | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Aug 2026 | Sold | withheld | Ray White Castle Hill |
| 15 Aug 2026 | Postponed | withheld | Ray White Castle Hill |
From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.
Agencies' own published sales nearby — Dural, around 4 beds
| Address | Sold | Price | Beds | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54 Valencia Street | by 16 Aug 2026 | $1,585,000 | 3 | Laing+Simmons |
Prices as published on the selling agency's own website (their sold pages) — includes private-treaty sales the auction results never see. Only sales the agency chose to publish a figure for appear here.
Sale history — the official settled-sale record at this address
| Exchanged | Price | Change since prior sale |
|---|---|---|
| 27 Oct 2023 | $2,100,000 | — |
Settled-sale records from the NSW Valuer General's Property Sales Information. Dates are contract (exchange) dates; sales appear only once lodged, so the most recent months are incomplete and revise upward — never read the latest month as final. Two entries on one date are usually a single transaction recorded across parts. © State of New South Wales (Valuation NSW).
School catchments
Dural PS (primary) · Galston HS (secondary)
1 primary school within 2 km · ICSEA ~1073 — the socio-educational advantage of the school community (My School, national average ~1000): a demographic measure, never a results or quality score.
Suburb-centre approximation for Dural — addresses near a boundary can differ. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.
Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.