The Property Brief — what the evidence shows. You draw the conclusion.
Confidence: Low — based on 21 comparable auction sales (2 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±20% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · thin comparable support for this configuration — read the range as wider, not as a warning · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Wellington St | 3 bd · 1 ba | $2M | June 2025 |
| 134 Wellington St | 3 bd · 1 ba | $1.29M | Oct 2023 |
| 848 Elizabeth St | 3 bd · 1 ba | $1.5M | June 2023 |
Suburb risk flags
flood exposure 35% of the suburb · bushfire exposure 0% · aircraft noise low · crime index: 97 — well above sydney average · 2 min walk to Waterloo Metro · ~5 min metro to the CBD · metro ~every 4 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye price model 2026-08-11-v5 — trained on 146,492 published auction sales; configuration-level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Waterloo — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Waterloo · postcode 2017
$1105–$1500/wk is what 3-bed houses in 2017 actually transact for (middle half of 42 bonds lodged, last 12 mo · median $1340/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).
2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $750 → $1150/wk · +9% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for houses in 2017, all bedroom counts pooled.
Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Development potential — how Council of the City of Sydney treats the work you might do
Refuses 2.61% of the development applications it decides · off-street parking 3.08% (determinations to Nov 2023).
The full outlook — every category with confidence ranges, which plan elements come unstuck, and the heritage effect by category — is under Explore the area.
Published auction results at this address
| Auction week | Result | Price | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2026 | Sold prior | $1,575,000 | Ray White Erskineville | Alexandria | Glebe | Surry Hills |
From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.
Agencies' own published sales nearby — Waterloo, around 3 beds
| Address | Sold | Price | Beds | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 727/7 Potter Street | by 17 Aug 2026 | $940,000 | 2 | Meriton |
| 518/7 Potter Street | by 17 Aug 2026 | $930,000 | 2 | Meriton |
| 185/11 Potter Street | by 17 Aug 2026 | $1,215,000 | 3 | Meriton |
Prices as published on the selling agency's own website (their sold pages) — includes private-treaty sales the auction results never see. Only sales the agency chose to publish a figure for appear here.
Sale history — the official settled-sale record at this address
| Exchanged | Price | Change since prior sale |
|---|---|---|
| 9 July 2021 | $1,360,000 | — |
Settled-sale records from the NSW Valuer General's Property Sales Information. Dates are contract (exchange) dates; sales appear only once lodged, so the most recent months are incomplete and revise upward — never read the latest month as final. Two entries on one date are usually a single transaction recorded across parts. © State of New South Wales (Valuation NSW).
Planning & zoning — MU1 Mixed Use
Shops/offices below, apartments above. Walkable and lively, but denser and busier.
Heritage conservation area — Waterloo. The property sits in a heritage conservation area — the streetscape is protected, so visible/external changes are controlled. It's area-wide, not this building specifically; it tends to preserve character and value.
Registered lots in Waterloo run 80–8,960 m² (middle 80% of 10 registered parcels). This one is 82 m² — inside that range.
Whether a block this size can be subdivided or redeveloped is a separate question: minimum lot size, setbacks and the council's DCP controls decide it, and this page doesn't check them. One point per registered parcel, so a tower's parent lot counts once — not once per unit. Confirm the parcel and its controls with the council before you inspect.
Zone MU1 (Mixed Use) under the SYDNEY LEP · heritage from the NSW Heritage Map layer, as recorded against this property in the NSW Valuer General's valuation record — a guide, not a parcel-level legal check. Confirm the exact lot at the NSW Planning Portal.
Development outlook — how often Council of the City of Sydney has refused this kind of work
| If you wanted to… | Refused | vs NSW | Applications decided |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alterations & additions | 1.93% (1.34–2.78%) | 0.7× (NSW 2.63%) | 28 refused of 1,450 · 13 approved with conditions |
| Off-street parking | 3.08% (0.85–10.54%) | 1.2× (NSW 2.58%) | 2 refused of 65 · 1 approved with conditions |
| Pool, deck or fence | 3.41% (1.57–7.24%) | 2× (NSW 1.73%) | 6 refused of 176 |
| Granny flat | 3.13% (0.55–15.74%) | 0.7× (NSW 4.45%) | 1 refused of 32 · 1 approved with conditions |
| Knock down & rebuild | 5.63% (2.88–10.72%) | 0.5× (NSW 11.55%) | 8 refused of 142 · 4 approved with conditions |
Across all application types Council of the City of Sydney refused 2.61% (2.08–3.26%) of the 2,839 development applications it decided.
Where these applications come unstuck
The refusal rate above says how strict the council is. This says which part of a plan is exposed — measured across all 192,284 NSW development applications, not just this council. Each is an association: plenty of applications carrying these elements are approved, and nothing here is a verdict on a proposal you haven't made yet.
- Alterations & additions — a new vehicle crossing cut into the front boundary (refused 7.27% vs 2.59% for this kind of work generally — 2.8×, on 220 applications); excavation or a new lower level (refused 6.71% vs 2.54% for this kind of work generally — 2.64×, on 611 applications)
- Off-street parking — a new vehicle crossing cut into the front boundary (refused 8.45% vs 2.42% for this kind of work generally — 3.49×, on 284 applications)
- Pool, deck or fence — excavation or a new lower level (refused 6.22% vs 1.61% for this kind of work generally — 3.88×, on 659 applications); full demolition and rebuild (refused 4.97% vs 1.6% for this kind of work generally — 3.12×, on 965 applications)
- Knock down & rebuild — excavation or a new lower level (refused 25.78% vs 9.36% for this kind of work generally — 2.75×, on 256 applications); full demolition and rebuild (refused 19.91% vs 10.46% for this kind of work generally — 1.9×, on 221 applications)
Because this address sits in a heritage listing
Heritage does not make everything harder — it depends entirely on what you want to do, and for some work it makes approval more likely. Measured across NSW by category:
- Alterations & additions — heritage listing raises the refusal rate: 4.39% on heritage-affected land vs 2.27% elsewhere
- Off-street parking — heritage listing raises the refusal rate: 7.37% on heritage-affected land vs 2.29% elsewhere
- Pool, deck or fence — heritage listing raises the refusal rate: 4.56% on heritage-affected land vs 1.62% elsewhere
- Granny flat — heritage listing raises the refusal rate: 9.63% on heritage-affected land vs 4.4% elsewhere
- Knock down & rebuild — heritage listing lowers the refusal rate: 7.1% on heritage-affected land vs 12.68% elsewhere — applications here are typically pre-advised and conservative
These are NSW-wide rates for heritage-affected applications, not Council of the City of Sydney-specific, and they describe applications rather than this property. The zoning section above records the actual listing at this address.
Determinations lodged on the NSW Planning Portal up to Nov 2023 — the published dataset stops there, so this is a record of how the council has behaved, not a forecast and not a statement about any particular application. Rates cover development applications only; modifications and reviews of an earlier decision are excluded. A rate is shown only where at least 30 applications were decided — below that the counts are given instead, because a percentage from a handful of decisions is not a fact about a council. "Approved with conditions" is a consent, not a refusal, and is never counted as one.
Development applications — at & near this address
| Where | Proposal | Status | Outcome | Est. cost | Lodged |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ~49 m · 13 Brisbane Lane Waterloo 2017 | Dwelling House, Alterations Or Additions To An Existing Building Or Structure · 1 new dwelling | Determined | not on record | $549k | 2025-07-23 |
| ~50 m · 38 762-768 Elizabeth Street Waterloo 2017 | Alterations Or Additions To An Existing Building Or Structure, Supporting Development | Determined | not on record | $50k | 2025-01-17 |
| ~54 m · 25 Wellington Street Waterloo 2017 | Alterations Or Additions To An Existing Building Or Structure, Multi-Dwelling Housing (Terraces) | Rejected | not on record | — | 2025-08-11 |
| ~54 m · 25 Wellington Street Waterloo 2017 | Dwelling House, Alterations Or Additions To An Existing Building Or Structure · 1 new dwelling | Rejected | not on record | $229k | 2025-12-09 |
| ~54 m · 25 Wellington Street Waterloo 2017 | Dwelling House, Alterations Or Additions To An Existing Building Or Structure · 1 new dwelling | Determined | not on record | $229k | 2026-02-10 |
| ~97 m · 728 Elizabeth Street Waterloo 2017 | Secondary Dwelling, Attached Dwelling · 1 new dwelling | Determined | Approved | $526k | 2021-04-06 |
Development application data © NSW Department of Planning and Environment, used under CC BY 4.0. Matched at this exact address or within ~150 m of its geocoded point — proximity evidence, not a parcel-level check. Lodged means proposed, not approved or built. Outcome comes from a separate NSW dataset that stops in Nov 2023: applications determined after that, or still undetermined, read “not on record” — which means we don't know, never that it was refused. “Status” is the council's own workflow state and “Determined” on its own does not say which way it went. Verify any application on the NSW Planning Portal.
What's changing in Waterloo — recent local signals
2026-07-31 — Place of worship invest — 2-6 KELLICK STREET WATERLOO 2017 ($987k) (institutional-signals.json (PAN-660763, OnlineDA))
2026-03-10 — Aged care / seniors invest — 182-186 YOUNG STREET WATERLOO 2017 ($481k) (institutional-signals.json (PAN-619742, OnlineDA))
Dated public signals compiled for this suburb — openings, closures, site sales and institutional moves. Facts with sources, not forecasts.
School catchments
Alexandria Park CS (primary) · Alexandria Park CS (secondary)
6 primary schools within 2 km · ICSEA ~1105 — the socio-educational advantage of the school community (My School, national average ~1000): a demographic measure, never a results or quality score.
NSW DoE intake zones at this address's geocoded point — tighter than a suburb-level guess, but geocodes carry a few metres of error and boundaries change with reviews. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Green space nearby
Protected public recreation land within 100 m
Land zoned RE1 under the local environmental plan — reserved for public recreation, which protects it from being built over. The zoning doesn't say what's on it or how usable it is, and this layer doesn't carry park names.
Privately-zoned recreation land (RE2 — typically golf courses or club grounds) within 2000 m. Private land: green outlook, not public open space.
Straight-line distance, not walking distance. NSW ePlanning planning layers (Land Zoning), CC BY. Distances are ladder buckets measured at the address's geocoded point.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.
Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.