The Property Brief — what the evidence shows. You draw the conclusion.
Confidence: Low — based on 109 comparable auction sales (11 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±12% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 Inverness Av | 3 bd · 1 ba | $2.05M | July 2025 |
Suburb risk flags
crime index: 28 — below sydney average · trains ~every 10 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye price model 2026-08-11-v5 — trained on 146,492 published auction sales; configuration-level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Penshurst — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Penshurst · postcode 2222
$750–$900/wk is what 3-bed houses in 2222 actually transact for (middle half of 27 bonds lodged, last 12 mo · median $820/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).
2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $560 → $910/wk · +12% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for houses in 2222, all bedroom counts pooled.
Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Published auction results at this address
| Auction week | Result | Price | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2026 | Sold | $1,990,000 | Ray White Georges River |
From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.
Agencies' own published sales nearby — Penshurst, around 3 beds
| Address | Sold | Price | Beds | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/15 Cambridge Street | by 26 Aug 2026 | $730,000 | 2 | Laing+Simmons |
Prices as published on the selling agency's own website (their sold pages) — includes private-treaty sales the auction results never see. Only sales the agency chose to publish a figure for appear here.
What's changing in Penshurst — recent local signals
2026-03-20 — Petrol station departure — 641 KING GEORGES ROAD PENSHURST 2222 ($4836k) (institutional-signals.json (PAN-622338, OnlineDA))
2025-10-09 — Place of worship invest — 520 FOREST ROAD PENSHURST 2222 ($688k) (institutional-signals.json (PAN-576912, OnlineDA))
Dated public signals compiled for this suburb — openings, closures, site sales and institutional moves. Facts with sources, not forecasts.
School catchments
Penshurst PS (primary) · GRC Oatley SC (secondary)
5 primary schools within 2 km · ICSEA ~1050 — the socio-educational advantage of the school community (My School, national average ~1000): a demographic measure, never a results or quality score.
Suburb-centre approximation for Penshurst — addresses near a boundary can differ. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
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Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.