The Property Brief — what the evidence shows. You draw the conclusion.
Confidence: Low — based on 24 comparable auction sales (2 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±26% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · thin comparable support for this configuration — read the range as wider, not as a warning · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 104 Page St | 3 bd · 1 ba | $2.18M | May 2024 |
| 104 Page St | 3 bd · 1 ba | $2.18M | May 2024 |
| 3 Cowper Av | 3 bd · 2 ba | $2.9M | Mar 2024 |
Suburb risk flags
flood exposure 54% of the suburb · bushfire exposure 0% · aircraft noise moderate · crime index: 52 — around sydney average · 27 min walk to Kingsford Light Rail · ~28 min light rail to the CBD · light rail ~every 8 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye price model 2026-08-11-v5 — trained on 146,492 published auction sales; configuration-level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Pagewood — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
Development potential — how Bayside Council treats the work you might do
Refuses 9.51% of the development applications it decides · off-street parking 5.56% (determinations to Nov 2023).
The full outlook — every category with confidence ranges, which plan elements come unstuck, and the heritage effect by category — is under Explore the area.
Published auction results at this address
| Auction week | Result | Price | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 July 2026 | Sold prior | withheld | NGFarah |
From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.
Agencies' own published sales nearby — Pagewood, around 3 beds
| Address | Sold | Price | Beds | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 306/124 Banks Avenue | by 17 Aug 2026 | $1,430,000 | 3 | Meriton |
Prices as published on the selling agency's own website (their sold pages) — includes private-treaty sales the auction results never see. Only sales the agency chose to publish a figure for appear here.
Sale history — the official settled-sale record at this address
| Exchanged | Price | Change since prior sale |
|---|---|---|
| 25 June 2026 | $2,300,000 | — |
Settled-sale records from the NSW Valuer General's Property Sales Information. Dates are contract (exchange) dates; sales appear only once lodged, so the most recent months are incomplete and revise upward — never read the latest month as final. Two entries on one date are usually a single transaction recorded across parts. © State of New South Wales (Valuation NSW).
Planning & zoning — R2 Low Density Residential
Houses and dual occupancies. A protected low-rise street — little chance of towers next door.
Height limit 10m (≈ 3 storeys) — the current legal ceiling for new building at this point under the LEP. Any proposal above it needs a variation or a rezoning — the kind of change the fast-track pipeline tracks.
Floor space ratio 0.55:1 — the maximum gross floor area you can build is 0.55:1 times the site area.
Registered lots in Pagewood run 410–690 m² (middle 80% of 17 registered parcels). This one is 521 m² — inside that range.
Whether a block this size can be subdivided or redeveloped is a separate question: minimum lot size, setbacks and the council's DCP controls decide it, and this page doesn't check them. One point per registered parcel, so a tower's parent lot counts once — not once per unit. Confirm the parcel and its controls with the council before you inspect.
Zone R2 (Low Density Residential) under the BAYSIDE LEP, as recorded against this property in the NSW Valuer General's valuation record — a guide, not a parcel-level legal check. Confirm the exact lot at the NSW Planning Portal.
Development outlook — how often Bayside Council has refused this kind of work
| If you wanted to… | Refused | vs NSW | Applications decided |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alterations & additions | 5.63% (3.59–8.72%) | 2.1× (NSW 2.63%) | 18 refused of 320 · 2 approved with conditions |
| Off-street parking | 5.56% (2.18–13.43%) | 2.2× (NSW 2.58%) | 4 refused of 72 |
| Pool, deck or fence | 5.14% (2.73–9.48%) | 3× (NSW 1.73%) | 9 refused of 175 · 1 approved with conditions |
| Granny flat | 6.41% (2.77–14.14%) | 1.4× (NSW 4.45%) | 5 refused of 78 |
| Knock down & rebuild | 31.82% (20–46.56%) | 2.8× (NSW 11.55%) | 14 refused of 44 · 4 approved with conditions |
Across all application types Bayside Council refused 9.51% (7.77–11.58%) of the 915 development applications it decided.
Where these applications come unstuck
The refusal rate above says how strict the council is. This says which part of a plan is exposed — measured across all 192,284 NSW development applications, not just this council. Each is an association: plenty of applications carrying these elements are approved, and nothing here is a verdict on a proposal you haven't made yet.
- Alterations & additions — a new vehicle crossing cut into the front boundary (refused 7.27% vs 2.59% for this kind of work generally — 2.8×, on 220 applications); excavation or a new lower level (refused 6.71% vs 2.54% for this kind of work generally — 2.64×, on 611 applications)
- Off-street parking — a new vehicle crossing cut into the front boundary (refused 8.45% vs 2.42% for this kind of work generally — 3.49×, on 284 applications)
- Pool, deck or fence — excavation or a new lower level (refused 6.22% vs 1.61% for this kind of work generally — 3.88×, on 659 applications); full demolition and rebuild (refused 4.97% vs 1.6% for this kind of work generally — 3.12×, on 965 applications)
- Knock down & rebuild — excavation or a new lower level (refused 25.78% vs 9.36% for this kind of work generally — 2.75×, on 256 applications); full demolition and rebuild (refused 19.91% vs 10.46% for this kind of work generally — 1.9×, on 221 applications)
Determinations lodged on the NSW Planning Portal up to Nov 2023 — the published dataset stops there, so this is a record of how the council has behaved, not a forecast and not a statement about any particular application. Rates cover development applications only; modifications and reviews of an earlier decision are excluded. A rate is shown only where at least 30 applications were decided — below that the counts are given instead, because a percentage from a handful of decisions is not a fact about a council. "Approved with conditions" is a consent, not a refusal, and is never counted as one.
Development applications — at & near this address
| Where | Proposal | Status | Outcome | Est. cost | Lodged |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ~45 m · 40 Holloway Street Pagewood 2035 | Erection Of A New Structure, Balcony, Deck, Patio, Terrace Or Verandah, Swimming Pool | Withdrawn | not on record | $66k | 2026-05-06 |
| ~45 m · 40 Holloway Street Pagewood 2035 | Erection Of A New Structure, Balcony, Deck, Patio, Terrace Or Verandah, Swimming Pool | Determined | not on record | $66k | 2026-05-19 |
| ~63 m · 31 Holloway Street Pagewood 2035 | Alterations And Additions To Residential Development · 1 new dwelling | Determined | Approved | $272k | 2021-05-03 |
| ~112 m · 161 Banksia Street Pagewood 2035 | Demolition, Dwelling House, Subdivision · 2 new dwellings | Cancelled | not on record | $1.94M | — |
| ~112 m · 161 Banksia Street Pagewood 2035 | Demolition, Erection Of A New Structure, Dual Occupancy (Detached) · 2 new dwellings | Withdrawn | not on record | $1.94M | 2025-08-21 |
| ~112 m · 161 Banksia Street Pagewood 2035 | Demolition, Erection Of A New Structure, Dual Occupancy (Detached) · 2 new dwellings | Determined | not on record | $1.94M | 2025-08-22 |
Development application data © NSW Department of Planning and Environment, used under CC BY 4.0. Matched at this exact address or within ~150 m of its geocoded point — proximity evidence, not a parcel-level check. Lodged means proposed, not approved or built. Outcome comes from a separate NSW dataset that stops in Nov 2023: applications determined after that, or still undetermined, read “not on record” — which means we don't know, never that it was refused. “Status” is the council's own workflow state and “Determined” on its own does not say which way it went. Verify any application on the NSW Planning Portal.
What's changing in Pagewood — recent local signals
2026-07-04 — Development site — listing's own words: "STCA" (108 Wentworth Avenue, Pagewood, NSW 2035) (listing rea-151404376 (rea), first seen 2026-07-04)
Dated public signals compiled for this suburb — openings, closures, site sales and institutional moves. Facts with sources, not forecasts.
School catchments
Pagewood PS (primary) · Sth Sydney HS (secondary)
3 primary schools within 2 km · ICSEA ~1057 — the socio-educational advantage of the school community (My School, national average ~1000): a demographic measure, never a results or quality score.
NSW DoE intake zones at this address's geocoded point — tighter than a suburb-level guess, but geocodes carry a few metres of error and boundaries change with reviews. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
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Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.