The Property Brief — what the evidence shows. You draw the conclusion.
Confidence: Low — based on 17 comparable auction sales (0 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±34% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · thin comparable support for this configuration — read the range as wider, not as a warning · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss
Suburb risk flags
crime index: 78 — well above sydney average
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye price model 2026-08-11-v5 — trained on 146,492 published auction sales; configuration-level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Speers Point · postcode 2284
$916–$1025/wk is what 5-bed houses in 2284 actually transact for (middle half of 12 bonds lodged, last 12 mo · median $1000/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).
2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $430 → $750/wk · +8% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for houses in 2284, all bedroom counts pooled.
Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Development potential — how Lake Macquarie City Council treats the work you might do
Refuses 0.39% of the development applications it decides · off-street parking 0.84% (determinations to Nov 2023).
The full outlook — every category with confidence ranges, which plan elements come unstuck, and the heritage effect by category — is under Explore the area.
Published auction results at this address
| Auction week | Result | Price | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Aug 2026 | Withdrawn | withheld | The Kaprilian Edit |
| 25 July 2026 | Postponed | withheld | The Kaprilian Edit |
| 18 July 2026 | Postponed | withheld | The Kaprilian Edit |
From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.
↩ Withdrawn from auction — what happens next
Withdrawn from auction isn't the end of a sale — of withdrawn Sydney homes that went on to sell, half sold within 65 days.
63% sold within three months of the scheduled auction.
1,547 withdrawn-then-sold homes across Sydney. We don't publish a price figure for withdrawn homes: the measured gap is too unstable to stand behind, and a number we can't defend is worse than none. Based on withdrawn homes that later sold. Homes that never sold aren't in the figure — withdrawal sometimes means a private deal was already done, and sometimes means the listing simply ended.
Planning & zoning — R2 Low Density Residential
Houses and dual occupancies. A protected low-rise street — little chance of towers next door.
Height limit 8.5m (≈ 2 storeys) — the current legal ceiling for new building at this point under the LEP. Any proposal above it needs a variation or a rezoning — the kind of change the fast-track pipeline tracks.
Zone R2 (Low Density Residential) under the LAKE MACQUARIE LEP, from the NSW ePlanning layers at this address's geocoded point — a guide, not a parcel-level legal check. Confirm the exact lot at the NSW Planning Portal.
Development outlook — how often Lake Macquarie City Council has refused this kind of work
| If you wanted to… | Refused | vs NSW | Applications decided |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alterations & additions | 0.22% (0.06–0.8%) | 0.1× (NSW 2.63%) | 2 refused of 906 |
| Off-street parking | 0.84% (0.36–1.94%) | 0.3× (NSW 2.58%) | 5 refused of 598 |
| Pool, deck or fence | 0.15% (0.04–0.56%) | 0.1× (NSW 1.73%) | 2 refused of 1,303 · 1 approved with conditions |
| Granny flat | 0.85% (0.23–3.04%) | 0.2× (NSW 4.45%) | 2 refused of 236 |
| Knock down & rebuild | 6.25% (1.73–20.15%) | 0.5× (NSW 11.55%) | 2 refused of 32 |
Across all application types Lake Macquarie City Council refused 0.39% (0.25–0.61%) of the 4,643 development applications it decided.
Where these applications come unstuck
The refusal rate above says how strict the council is. This says which part of a plan is exposed — measured across all 192,284 NSW development applications, not just this council. Each is an association: plenty of applications carrying these elements are approved, and nothing here is a verdict on a proposal you haven't made yet.
- Alterations & additions — a new vehicle crossing cut into the front boundary (refused 7.27% vs 2.59% for this kind of work generally — 2.8×, on 220 applications); excavation or a new lower level (refused 6.71% vs 2.54% for this kind of work generally — 2.64×, on 611 applications)
- Off-street parking — a new vehicle crossing cut into the front boundary (refused 8.45% vs 2.42% for this kind of work generally — 3.49×, on 284 applications)
- Pool, deck or fence — excavation or a new lower level (refused 6.22% vs 1.61% for this kind of work generally — 3.88×, on 659 applications); full demolition and rebuild (refused 4.97% vs 1.6% for this kind of work generally — 3.12×, on 965 applications)
- Knock down & rebuild — excavation or a new lower level (refused 25.78% vs 9.36% for this kind of work generally — 2.75×, on 256 applications); full demolition and rebuild (refused 19.91% vs 10.46% for this kind of work generally — 1.9×, on 221 applications)
Determinations lodged on the NSW Planning Portal up to Nov 2023 — the published dataset stops there, so this is a record of how the council has behaved, not a forecast and not a statement about any particular application. Rates cover development applications only; modifications and reviews of an earlier decision are excluded. A rate is shown only where at least 30 applications were decided — below that the counts are given instead, because a percentage from a handful of decisions is not a fact about a council. "Approved with conditions" is a consent, not a refusal, and is never counted as one.
School catchments
Speers Pt PS (primary) · Lake Macquarie HS (secondary)
NSW DoE intake zones at this address's geocoded point — tighter than a suburb-level guess, but geocodes carry a few metres of error and boundaries change with reviews. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
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Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.