The listing we observed
2 bedrooms · House
Listing details describe the advertised home. They do not verify its condition or approved use.
Mario Carbone · last observed 12 Oct 2026← swipe · 10 photos
Currently listed ▲ Raised 5.4% · $150k · 2 weeks ago
2 bed · 1 bath · 2 car · House
Asking price RAISED 5.4% ($150k, from $2,800,000 to $2,950,000) 2 weeks ago. A demand signal at this address: expect competition.
Your buyer evidence guide
Understand the home before the offer.
The useful records, what they mean, and the questions they leave open. Start here, then explore the evidence below.
Recorded sales at this address
1 recorded sale
A previous sale is a useful reference, but its date and any changes to the home matter. It is not today's value.
Valuation NSW · dates and prices in Sale history belowHow much price evidence fits
203 sales in the wider suburb/type pool
The wider pool is not a set of identical homes. Bedroom count, condition and location within the suburb affect comparability.
Published auction evidence · model trained through 2026-09-15Planning activity nearby
6 recorded applications at or near this address
An application is not an approval or a promise that building work will happen. Location and stage matter.
NSW Planning Portal · individual records in Explore the areaWhat deserves a closer look
- price raised $150k — to $2.95M
- auction: Passed in (Ray White Drummoyne)
- asking $2.8M
These are recorded events, not evidence of the seller's motivation.
What we still cannot tell you
- Direct price support is limited. Read the comparable sales and the estimate's uncertainty together.
- Public records and an automated estimate cannot establish whether the home is defect-free, what the contract contains, or why the owner is selling.
Questions to take to the inspection
Use these with the agent and your independent advisers. An answer is something to verify, not a fact we have recorded.
- Which nearby applications affect this home, and what stage has each actually reached?
- Which recent sales are most comparable to this home, and how do their size, condition and position differ?
- What repairs, alterations or water issues are documented, and what can an independent inspection verify?
The estimate is a model output. The records are evidence. Your inspection and document checks fill the gaps.
Is the asking price plausible?
This is a comparison with the evidence we hold, not a valuation or a recommended offer.
CONSERVATIVE
$1.89M
the calibrated floor
LIKELY FAIR RANGE
$1.89M–$2.49M
around $2.16M mid
STRETCH CAP
$2.49M
$2.97M on the wider 80% band
Confidence: Low — based on 203 comparable auction sales (1 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±14% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · priced from this property's own records: block size, land value, previous sale · thin comparable support for this configuration — read the range as wider, not as a warning · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss
How this estimate was made
- Method: AI PropertyEye tree model · trained through 2026-09-15
- Inputs used for this home: priced from this property's own records: block size, land value, previous sale
- Comparable support: 203 sales in the wider suburb/type pool; 1 of this exact configuration
- When to be more cautious: This configuration has thin direct comparable support, so its range is deliberately wider.
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Waterloo St | 2 bd · 1 ba | $1.6M | May 2025 |
| 21 Nelson St | 2 bd · 1 ba | $1.75M | May 2025 |
Suburb risk flags
crime index: 48 — around sydney average · 8 min walk to Rozelle Bay Light Rail · ~20 min light rail to the CBD · light rail ~every 6 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye tree model 2026-09-02-v7-price-model-v6-full-grid, trained through 2026-09-15 — trained on 169,861 published auction sales; priced per address where this home's own records reach the model (see "How this estimate was made"), otherwise at configuration level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Rozelle — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Evidence trail: tracked by our radar from portal listings, web-archive checks and published auction results — each entry dated
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
What changed recently?
- 25 Aug 2026 first tracked by our radar (the portal doesn't publish its list date)
- 20 Sept 2026 asking $2.8M
- 26 Sept 2026 auction: Passed in (Ray White Drummoyne)
- 26 Sept 2026 price raised $150k — to $2.95M
- 13 Oct 2026 on market 49+ days — first tracked by us, a lower bound
What to inspect before you offer
- Condition, aspect, renovation and the contract — these can materially change price, and the estimate cannot see them.
- 6 development applications are recorded at or near this address — check the source records and current status.
These are due-diligence prompts, not a verdict on this property.
⏱ Days on market — this campaign
49 days since our daily sweep first saw this listing.
The portal's own campaign may have started slightly earlier than our first sighting. Longer campaigns tend to mean more negotiating room — the board's "Longest listed" sort exists for exactly that reason.
Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Rozelle · postcode 2039
$750–$1150/wk is what 2-bed houses in 2039 actually transact for (middle half of 16 bonds lodged, Q2 2026 · median $945/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).
2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $835 → $1150/wk · +9% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for houses in 2039, all bedroom counts pooled.
Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Published auction results at this address
| Auction week | Result | Price | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Sept 2026 | Passed in | withheld | Ray White Drummoyne |
From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.
Agencies' own published sales nearby — Rozelle, around 2 beds
| Address | Sold | Price | Beds | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Red Lion Street | 11 Sept 2026 | $1,635,000 | 2 | Harris Partners |
| 3 Withecombe Street | 14 Aug 2026 | $2,600,000 | 3 | Harris Partners |
| 72 Mansfield Street | 2 June 2025 | $1,830,000 | 2 | Harris Partners |
| 102 Foucart Street | 20 Dec 2024 | $1,700,000 | 3 | Harris Partners |
| 14 Waterloo Street | 15 May 2024 | $1,532,888 | 2 | Harris Partners |
Prices as published on the selling agency's own website (their sold pages) — includes private-treaty sales the auction results never see. Only sales the agency chose to publish a figure for appear here.
⏭ It passed in — what happens next — the question the listing stops at
Across Sydney, homes that passed in and later sold went for about 6% less than comparable homes that sold under the hammer.
Half sold within 33 days, 75% within three months.
Like-for-like within bedroom and property-type groups · 53 comparison groups across Sydney, sales settled in the last two years. Based on passed-in homes that later sold. Homes that never sold aren't in the figure, so read this as what a sale fetches — not what the home is worth. Passing in is a negotiating position, not a verdict — this is evidence about outcomes, never advice on what to offer.
Sale history — the official settled-sale record at this address
| Exchanged | Price | Change since prior sale |
|---|---|---|
| 26 Nov 2016 | $1,688,000 | — |
Settled-sale records from the NSW Valuer General's Property Sales Information. Dates are contract (exchange) dates; sales appear only once lodged, so the most recent months are incomplete and revise upward — never read the latest month as final. Two entries on one date are usually a single transaction recorded across parts. © State of New South Wales (Valuation NSW).
Development applications — at & near this address
| Where | Proposal | Status | Outcome | Est. cost | Lodged |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This address | Dual Occupancy, Pools / Decks / Fencing, Demolition · 2 new dwellings | Determined | not on record | $810k | 2022-07-21 |
| ~45 m · 20 Gordon Street Rozelle 2039 | Demolition, Dwelling House, Alterations Or Additions To An Existing Building Or Structure · 1 new dwelling | Determined | not on record | $731k | 2024-12-06 |
| ~47 m · 24 Gordon Street Rozelle 2039 | Alterations And Additions To Residential Development · 1 new dwelling | Determined | Approved | $500k | 2020-09-18 |
| ~61 m · 60 Quirk Street Rozelle 2039 | Erection Of A New Structure, Swimming Pool | Determined | not on record | $130k | 2025-12-11 |
| ~77 m · 46 Quirk Street Rozelle 2039 | Demolition | Determined | not on record | $4k | 2026-07-01 |
| ~91 m · 40 Quirk Street Rozelle 2039 | Alterations And Additions To Residential Development | Determined | Approved | $237k | 2021-01-15 |
Development application data © NSW Department of Planning and Environment, used under CC BY 4.0. Matched at this exact address or within ~150 m of its geocoded point — proximity evidence, not a parcel-level check. Lodged means proposed, not approved or built. Outcome comes from a separate NSW dataset that stops in Nov 2023: applications determined after that, or still undetermined, read “not on record” — which means we don't know, never that it was refused. “Status” is the council's own workflow state and “Determined” on its own does not say which way it went. Verify any application on the NSW Planning Portal.
What's changing in Rozelle — recent local signals
2026-10-07 — Development site — listing's own words: "STCA" (4 Collins Street, Rozelle, NSW 2039) (listing rea-152562556 (rea), first seen 2026-10-07)
2026-09-03 — Development site — listing's own words: "STCA" (56 Goodsir Street, Rozelle, NSW 2039) (listing rea-152242724 (rea), first seen 2026-09-03)
2026-08-14 — Development site — listing's own words: "STCA" (3 Withecombe Street, Rozelle, NSW 2039) (listing rea-151964336 (rea), first seen 2026-08-14)
Dated public signals compiled for this suburb — openings, closures, site sales and institutional moves. Facts with sources, not forecasts.
School catchments
Rozelle PS (primary) · SSC Balmain (secondary)
5 primary schools within 2 km · ICSEA ~1114 — the socio-educational advantage of the school community (My School, national average ~1000): a demographic measure, never a results or quality score.
Suburb-centre approximation for Rozelle — addresses near a boundary can differ. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.
Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.