Is the asking price plausible?
This is a comparison with the evidence we hold, not a valuation or a recommended offer.
Confidence: Low — based on 25 comparable auction sales (6 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±11% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · priced from this property's own records: block size, land value · the model's typical miss is ~10% against published results — every hit and miss
How this estimate was made
- Method: AI PropertyEye tree model · trained through 2026-09-03
- Inputs used for this home: priced from this property's own records: block size, land value
- Comparable support: 25 sales in the wider suburb/type pool; 6 of this exact configuration
- When to be more cautious: Condition, aspect, renovation and the contract are not model inputs and can move the eventual sale price.
Suburb risk flags
crime index: 73 — above sydney average · trains ~every 5 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye tree model 2026-09-02-v7-price-model-v6-full-grid, trained through 2026-09-03 — trained on 169,356 published auction sales; priced per address where this home's own records reach the model (see "How this estimate was made"), otherwise at configuration level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
What to inspect before you offer
- Condition, aspect, renovation and the contract — these can materially change price, and the estimate cannot see them.
- Planning controls and heritage status — confirm the exact lot, not just the address-level guide, before relying on development potential.
These are due-diligence prompts, not a verdict on this property.
Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Bradbury · postcode 2560
$580–$660/wk is what 3-bed houses in 2560 actually transact for (middle half of 200 bonds lodged, Q2 2026 · median $618/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).
2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $415 → $630/wk · +5% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for houses in 2560, all bedroom counts pooled.
Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Development potential — how Campbelltown City Council treats the work you might do
Refuses 4.56% of the development applications it decides · off-street parking 9.3% (determinations to Nov 2023).
The full outlook — every category with confidence ranges, which plan elements come unstuck, and the heritage effect by category — is under Explore the area.
Published auction results at this address
| Auction week | Result | Price | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr 2026 | Sold prior | $975,000 | — |
From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.
Agencies' own published sales nearby — Bradbury, around 3 beds
| Address | Sold | Price | Beds | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Kibby Road | by 16 Aug 2026 | $1,010,000 | 4 | Laing+Simmons |
Prices as published on the selling agency's own website (their sold pages) — includes private-treaty sales the auction results never see. Only sales the agency chose to publish a figure for appear here.
Planning & zoning — R2 Low Density Residential
Houses and dual occupancies. A protected low-rise street — little chance of towers next door.
Height limit 8.5m (≈ 2 storeys) — the current legal ceiling for new building at this point under the LEP. Any proposal above it needs a variation or a rezoning — the kind of change the fast-track pipeline tracks.
Zone R2 (Low Density Residential) under the CAMPBELLTOWN LEP, as recorded against this property in the NSW Valuer General's valuation record — a guide, not a parcel-level legal check. Confirm the exact lot at the NSW Planning Portal.
Development outlook — how often Campbelltown City Council has refused this kind of work
| If you wanted to… | Refused | vs NSW | Applications decided |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alterations & additions | 7.33% (4.14–12.65%) | 2.8× (NSW 2.63%) | 11 refused of 150 · 3 approved with conditions |
| Off-street parking | 9.3% (3.68–21.6%) | 3.6× (NSW 2.58%) | 4 refused of 43 · 2 approved with conditions |
| Pool, deck or fence | 3.92% (1.54–9.65%) | 2.3× (NSW 1.73%) | 4 refused of 102 · 2 approved with conditions |
| Granny flat | 4.72% (2.03–10.57%) | 1.1× (NSW 4.45%) | 5 refused of 106 · 2 approved with conditions |
| Knock down & rebuild | 2.94% (0.52–14.92%) | 0.3× (NSW 11.55%) | 1 refused of 34 |
Across all application types Campbelltown City Council refused 4.56% (3.58–5.79%) of the 1,383 development applications it decided.
Where these applications come unstuck
The refusal rate above says how strict the council is. This says which part of a plan is exposed — measured across all 192,284 NSW development applications, not just this council. Each is an association: plenty of applications carrying these elements are approved, and nothing here is a verdict on a proposal you haven't made yet.
- Alterations & additions — a new vehicle crossing cut into the front boundary (refused 7.27% vs 2.59% for this kind of work generally — 2.8×, on 220 applications); excavation or a new lower level (refused 6.71% vs 2.54% for this kind of work generally — 2.64×, on 611 applications)
- Off-street parking — a new vehicle crossing cut into the front boundary (refused 8.45% vs 2.42% for this kind of work generally — 3.49×, on 284 applications)
- Pool, deck or fence — excavation or a new lower level (refused 6.22% vs 1.61% for this kind of work generally — 3.88×, on 659 applications); full demolition and rebuild (refused 4.97% vs 1.6% for this kind of work generally — 3.12×, on 965 applications)
- Knock down & rebuild — excavation or a new lower level (refused 25.78% vs 9.36% for this kind of work generally — 2.75×, on 256 applications); full demolition and rebuild (refused 19.91% vs 10.46% for this kind of work generally — 1.9×, on 221 applications)
Determinations lodged on the NSW Planning Portal up to Nov 2023 — the published dataset stops there, so this is a record of how the council has behaved, not a forecast and not a statement about any particular application. Rates cover development applications only; modifications and reviews of an earlier decision are excluded. A rate is shown only where at least 30 applications were decided — below that the counts are given instead, because a percentage from a handful of decisions is not a fact about a council. "Approved with conditions" is a consent, not a refusal, and is never counted as one.
School catchments
Bradbury PS (primary) · Airds HS (secondary)
6 primary schools within 2 km · ICSEA ~931 — the socio-educational advantage of the school community (My School, national average ~1000): a demographic measure, never a results or quality score.
NSW DoE intake zones at this address's geocoded point — tighter than a suburb-level guess, but geocodes carry a few metres of error and boundaries change with reviews. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.
Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.