The listing we observed
3 bedrooms · ApartmentUnitFlat
Listing details describe the advertised home. They do not verify its condition or approved use.
Liang 'Spencer' Sun · last observed 5 Oct 2026← swipe · 10 photos
Currently listed — $1,700,000 ▼ Reduced 5.6% · $100k · 2 weeks ago
3 bed · 2 bath · 1 car · Apartment / Unit
Asking price cut 5.6% ($100k, from $1,800,000 to $1,700,000) 2 weeks ago. The vendor has already moved once: negotiate below the NEW asking, not at it.
Your buyer evidence guide
Understand the home before the offer.
The useful records, what they mean, and the questions they leave open. Start here, then explore the evidence below.
How much price evidence fits
65 sales in the wider suburb/type pool
The wider pool is not a set of identical homes. Bedroom count, condition and location within the suburb affect comparability.
Published auction evidence · model trained through 2026-09-15What deserves a closer look
- price cut $100k — to $1.7M
- asking $1.8M
- first tracked by our radar (the portal doesn't publish its list date)
These are recorded events, not evidence of the seller's motivation.
What we still cannot tell you
- No settled-sale history is available in this page's records. This does not mean the home has never sold.
- Direct price support is limited. Read the comparable sales and the estimate's uncertainty together.
- Public records and an automated estimate cannot establish whether the home is defect-free, what the contract contains, or why the owner is selling.
Questions to take to the inspection
Use these with the agent and your independent advisers. An answer is something to verify, not a fact we have recorded.
- Which recent sales are most comparable to this home, and how do their size, condition and position differ?
- What repairs, alterations or water issues are documented, and what can an independent inspection verify?
- What do the strata records show about current levies, planned works, meeting decisions and unresolved defects?
The estimate is a model output. The records are evidence. Your inspection and document checks fill the gaps.
Is the asking price plausible?
This is a comparison with the evidence we hold, not a valuation or a recommended offer.
CONSERVATIVE
$1.68M
the calibrated floor
LIKELY FAIR RANGE
$1.68M–$2.21M
around $1.91M mid
STRETCH CAP
$2.21M
$2.63M on the wider 80% band
Confidence: Low — based on 65 comparable auction sales (0 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±14% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · thin comparable support for this configuration — read the range as wider, not as a warning · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss
How this estimate was made
- Method: AI PropertyEye tree model · trained through 2026-09-15
- Inputs used for this home: no per-address records were available; this uses location and configuration only
- Comparable support: 65 sales in the wider suburb/type pool; 0 of this exact configuration
- When to be more cautious: This configuration has thin direct comparable support, so its range is deliberately wider.
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 903/646 Harris St | 3 bd · 3 ba | $1.19M | Dec 2024 |
Suburb risk flags
crime index: 100 — well above sydney average · 16 min walk to Central · light rail ~every 4 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye tree model 2026-09-02-v7-price-model-v6-full-grid, trained through 2026-09-15 — trained on 169,861 published auction sales; priced per address where this home's own records reach the model (see "How this estimate was made"), otherwise at configuration level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Ultimo — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Evidence trail: tracked by our radar from portal listings, web-archive checks and published auction results — each entry dated
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
What changed recently?
- 20 Sept 2026 first tracked by our radar (the portal doesn't publish its list date)
- 20 Sept 2026 asking $1.8M
- 21 Sept 2026 price cut $100k — to $1.7M
- 6 Oct 2026 on market 15+ days — first tracked by us, a lower bound
What to inspect before you offer
- Condition, aspect, renovation and the contract — these can materially change price, and the estimate cannot see them.
- Building condition: public records cannot establish that a building is defect-free; inspect independently.
These are due-diligence prompts, not a verdict on this property.
⏱ Days on market — this campaign
15 days since our daily sweep first saw this listing.
The portal's own campaign may have started slightly earlier than our first sighting. Longer campaigns tend to mean more negotiating room — the board's "Longest listed" sort exists for exactly that reason.
Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Ultimo · postcode 2007
$1500–$1700/wk is what 3-bed units in 2007 actually transact for (middle half of 13 bonds lodged, Q2 2026 · median $1590/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).
2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $560 → $750/wk · +5% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for units in 2007, all bedroom counts pooled.
Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Growth trend — Ultimo units at auction
Too few same-bed sales for a measured growth rate yet. Recent quarterly sold medians (all unit sizes — thin samples move these):
2024Q3 $803k (5) · 2024Q4 $1078k (6) · 2025Q1 $750k (4) · 2025Q2 $955k (3)
Suburb-level, from published auction results. No single building has enough sales for a block-level series, so this is the honest grain; sales-mix shifts move raw medians, and the measured rate (when shown) controls for bed count.
Agencies' own published sales nearby — Ultimo, around 3 beds
| Address | Sold | Price | Beds | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 108/330-370 Wattle Street | 26 Feb 2024 | $378,000 | — | Harris Partners |
| 16/330 Wattle Street | 7 June 2023 | $401,500 | — | Harris Partners |
| 91/330 Wattle Street | 2 June 2023 | $652,300 | — | Harris Partners |
Prices as published on the selling agency's own website (their sold pages) — includes private-treaty sales the auction results never see. Only sales the agency chose to publish a figure for appear here.
Similar properties — on the market now
$1,700,000
C603/276 Bulwara Road
Ultimo
3 bed · 2 bath · 2 car
$1,700,000
511/66 Bowman Street
Pyrmont · 1.1 km away
2 bed · 2 bath · 1 car
▼ Reduced 5.6% · $100k · 2 weeks ago
$1,700,000
707/147 Ross St
Forest Lodge · 1.6 km away
2 bed · 2 bath · 1 car
$1,700,000
417/1a The Crescent
Forest Lodge · 1.6 km away
2 bed · 2 bath · 1 car
$1,700,000
212/7 Sterling Circuit
Camperdown · 2.2 km away
2 bed · 2 bath · 1 car
$1,700,000
129/71 Victoria Street
Potts Point · 2.9 km away
2 bed · 2 bath · 2 car
The 6 listings above are on the market now: same unit category, within 1 bedroom of 3, asking within 20% of this one, in Ultimo or a suburb whose centre is within 3 km — ordered by how close the asking price is. That is the whole rule: a filter, not a recommendation, and nothing here judges which home is better.
Construction risk — what no listing tells you
Building Commission NSW / Strata Community Association 2023 Strata Defects Survey: 53% of newly registered strata buildings reported at least one serious defect in common property (39% in the 2021 survey). Defects are common, not exceptional — and new does not mean safe (Opal Tower was under a year old).
Get an independent structural and strata inspection before you commit — the defect base rate makes it the single highest-value dollar in the purchase.
We cannot see inside a building — no one can from public records. This section states base rates and observable adjacency only, and will never call a building safe.
What's changing in Ultimo — recent local signals
2026-09-16 — Education invest — 1 2-14 MOUNTAIN STREET ULTIMO 2007 ($13467k) (institutional-signals.json (PAN-598691, OnlineDA))
Dated public signals compiled for this suburb — openings, closures, site sales and institutional moves. Facts with sources, not forecasts.
School catchments
Ultimo PS (primary) · SSC Balmain (secondary)
7 primary schools within 2 km · ICSEA ~1102 — the socio-educational advantage of the school community (My School, national average ~1000): a demographic measure, never a results or quality score.
Suburb-centre approximation for Ultimo — addresses near a boundary can differ. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.
Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.