Ultimo · Sydney NSW

Price model — what the model says a typical home here achieves at auction

Modelled from 146,492 Australian auction sales (2021–2026). Sydney cells run on the base model (suburb prior + configuration + time) without the Sydney-only land/school/transport features — ranges are honest about the wider uncertainty. Estimates from comparable auction results — not valuations or financial advice.

Buildings in Ultimo — full dossiers: every sale, turnover, orders, what units rent for

The 20 most-transacted of 35 Ultimo buildings with dossiers — the rest are reachable from these pages and the sitemap. Sales counts and resale records from NSW Valuer General bulk data (CC-BY); lot counts from the NSW Strata Hub register. Each dossier also states what public records cannot tell you.

Recent comparable sales — the real auction results behind the estimates

Units

Recent sold auction results in Ultimo from the price model's training set (published Domain results). A sample, not every sale.

What Ultimo actually sold for — published auction results, quarter by quarter

Quarterly medians of real published auction results (sold outcomes only). Historical results — not a prediction, valuation or financial advice.

All settled sales — every recorded sale, not just auctions

Last 12 months: 183 settled sales · median $775,000 (middle half $210,000–$1,075,000)

Settled-sale records from the NSW Valuer General's Property Sales Information. Dates are contract (exchange) dates; sales appear only once lodged, so the most recent months are incomplete and revise upward — never read the latest month as final. Residential sales of all methods — private treaty and auction. © State of New South Wales (Valuation NSW).

What Ultimo homes rent for — real bonds lodged, postcode 2007

2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $490 → $650/wk median new-tenancy rent in 2007, all dwellings pooled · +8% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four).

Every figure is from NSW Fair Trading rental bond lodgements (CC BY) — rents tenants actually signed at, not advertised asks. Postcode is the finest geography the source publishes, and a postcode may span more than one suburb. Middle half = 25th–75th percentile. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.

Crime — recorded key offences (BOCSAR)

Index 100 — well above the Sydney average (50 = average) · band high

BOCSAR recorded key offences per resident at POSTCODE level (2007) — a postcode can span neighbouring suburbs. Rates are per RESIDENT — visitor-heavy precincts read high. Source: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research (CC BY 4.0).

Delivered & approved supply — what got built around here, honestly windowed

374 dwellings approved in Ultimo between 2019-08-30 and 2023-04-29 (111 applications). Largest: 206dw 445 - 483 Wattle Street, Sydney (2021) · 70dw 437 Wattle Street Ultimo 2007 (2020).

Census check: occupied dwellings grew from 2,856 (2016) to 3,536 (2021) — +680 delivered in that window, -31 of them apartments — measured completion, independent of any approval record.

Council portal records begin August 2019 — approvals before that date are invisible to the automated count and appear here only where curated from public record (and say so). Approved also precedes completed by 1–3 years. State-assessed projects live in the fast-track section, not these counts.

Institutional moves — arrivals & departures, 12-month DA window

When an organisation with real money commits to a location — or abandons one — they've done homework you can't see. The market moves around that decision; the building is the visible end of it.

investing in place Education — 1 2-14 Mountain Street Ultimo 2007 · $13.5M works
Educational establishment · Advertising and signage · Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure · Change of use of land or a building or the classification of a building under the Building Code of Australia · Additional Information Requested · lodged 2025-12-15 · PAN-598691

A DA is intent, not an opening — and a demolition DA is not always a closure (rebuilds happen). Classification is over the Planning Portal's own structured development types; every record above is checkable by its PAN number. Departures are deliberately listed first: almost nobody watches them. Supermarket-class moves live in the anchor-tenant section, not here. Development application data © NSW Department of Planning and Environment, used under CC BY 4.0.

State-assessed housing nearby — the fast-track pipeline within 2.5km, refused declarations included

100 dwellings · 645 Harris St, Ultimo · 0.3km away · Gyde Consulting (on behalf of Edgecombe Investments Pty Ltd and Lijavu Pty Ltd)
Not declared — fast-track refused · HDA record, 2026-03-13

140 dwellings · 38 - 44 Mountain Street, Ultimo · 0.4km away · Think Planners Pty Ltd
Not declared — fast-track refused · HDA record, 2026-04-29

150 dwellings · 86 - 92 Harris Street, Pyrmont · 0.5km away · TP&S Pyrmont Land Holdings Pty Ltd
Declared State Significant — on the fast-track · HDA record, 2026-05-27

400 dwellings · 187-189 Thomas Street, Haymarket · 0.6km away · Greaton Thomas Pty Ltd
Not declared — fast-track refused · HDA record, 2026-03-13

5 Central Park Avenue, Chippendale, 2008 · 0.7km away
Determination — decision imminent · SSD-9374

1,000 dwellings · 83 Quay Street, Haymarket · 0.7km away · Scape Australia Management Pty ltd (Scape)
Not declared — fast-track refused · HDA record, 2025-10-27

+ 42 more within 2.5km — see the full fast-track list.

Known pipeline within 2.5km: 6,422 dwellings across 48 projects — future supply IF approved and built. More homes coming can mean growth in services and momentum, but also more stock competing with a resale.

These proposals go straight to NSW state assessment (Housing Delivery Authority pathway) and never appear in council DA counts. Dwelling numbers are the applicant's EOI figures — assessment can trim them. Distance is suburb-centre to project, ±500m.

Schools — density, catchment and community profile

7 primary schools within 2km · nearest school ~0.36km · 7 selective within 5km · ICSEA 1102

Catchment (suburb-centre approximation): Ultimo PS · SSC Balmain — a boundary address can differ; verify yours at NSW School Finder.

ICSEA is the socio-educational advantage of a school's community (My School, national average ~1000) — a demographic measure, not a quality or results score. NSW DoE school locations + intake zones, CC BY 4.0.

Auction market pace — Sydney weekly clearance

Benchmark series (Domain): week to 2026-08-22 — 53.8% of 372 reported auctions. Our own tracking (withdrawn counted): week to 2026-08-22 — 43% of 524 scheduled. Lower clearance generally means more room for buyers to negotiate.

Suburb breakdown — trailing 8 weeks, our tracking, withdrawn counted

Recent auction addresses in Ultimo

Every address links to its own page — published results, price estimate, suburb context.

23/23-33 Macarthur St · 1402/58 Mountain St · 509/287 Pyrmont St · 37 Ada Pl

Development pipeline — what's proposed in Ultimo, and how far along it is

State-pipeline proposals (pre-DA — the biggest projects start here)

• 38 - 44 Mountain Street, Ultimo — 140 dwellings including 10% affordable housing for 15 years, and ground floor commercial
  Think Planners Pty Ltd · Proposed — state-pipeline EOI (pre-DA, may change or lapse)
• 645 Harris St, Ultimo — A 29-storey mixed use building comprising commercial floorspace and 100 residential apartments, including affordable housing
  Gyde Consulting (on behalf of Edgecombe Investments Pty Ltd and Lijavu Pty Ltd) · Proposed — state-pipeline EOI (pre-DA, may change or lapse)

Major applications in the DA channel

Plus 26 smaller applications (renovations, single dwellings, signage) — 10 approved, 12 determined, 3 withdrawn, 1 rejected.

What this view cannot see

• Council DAs from the NSW Planning Portal open feed, matched within ~150 m of addresses we track — a proximity net, not a complete register.
• Verdicts (approved/refused) come from a dataset frozen in Nov 2023: anything determined after that shows “determined” without a published outcome. Check the application on the NSW Planning Portal for the current decision.
• The largest master-planned sites can proceed as State Significant Development or planning proposals and never appear as council DAs. State-pipeline EOIs shown here are proposals, not applications, and can change or lapse.
• No feed we hold ties a construction certificate to a specific application, so no project row here can honestly read “under construction” — “approved” never means “built”. Suburb-level construction-certificate volume appears in the DA-volume section.

Housing and jobs targets — SYDNEY LGA

Under the NSW Government's 20-year Sydney plan, SYDNEY has a five-year housing target of 18,900 new homes (2024–2029) and a jobs target of 93,500–143,000 additional jobs by 2046.

The housing target is the supply pipeline for the area: the number of new homes the state expects the council to plan capacity for, concentrated around the centres and station areas the Plan nominates. The jobs figure is published as an aspirational range and is not legislated the way housing targets are.

Source: The Sydney Plan, Appendix D — Housing and Employment Guidance (published 13 August 2026), licensed CC BY 4.0. © State of New South Wales and Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure 2026

State rezoning pipeline — Sydney LGA

The Sydney Plan lists 4 state significant rezoning sites in this LGA — land the NSW Government is rezoning (or has rezoned) for additional homes and jobs, alongside council-led supply. Dwelling and jobs figures are preliminary estimates provided by proponents or councils.

• Waterloo Estate (South) — ~3,300 dwellings · assessment underway, announced Oct 2025
• Explorer Street, Eveleigh (Homes NSW) — ~400 dwellings · rezoning completed Aug 2025
• Central Precinct — ~950 dwellings, ~2,400 jobs · rezoning completed Aug 2025
• Blackwattle Bay Precinct (inc Fish Market site) — ~1,570 dwellings (all stages) · rezoning completed May 2025

These are LGA-level sites, not a statement about any individual property; the Plan does not publish site boundaries or coordinates in this appendix. Source: The Sydney Plan, Appendix F — State-led or assessed rezonings (published 13 August 2026, updated every 6 months), licensed CC BY 4.0. © State of New South Wales and Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure 2026