The Property Brief — what the evidence shows. You draw the conclusion.
Confidence: Low — based on 42 comparable auction sales (0 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±27% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · thin comparable support for this configuration — read the range as wider, not as a warning · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Kangaroo St | 4 bd · 2 ba | $5.18M | Sept 2025 |
| 160 Pittwater Rd | 4 bd · 2 ba | $3.85M | May 2025 |
| 8a Pacific Pde | 4 bd · 2 ba | $4.5M | Mar 2025 |
| 67 Eurobin Av | 4 bd · 2 ba | $4.5M | Sept 2024 |
Suburb risk flags
crime index: 68 — above sydney average · 6 min walk to Manly Wharf · ~18 min ferry to the CBD · ferries ~every 5 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye price model 2026-08-11-v5 — trained on 146,492 published auction sales; configuration-level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Manly — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Manly · postcode 2095
$2138–$3078/wk is what 4-bed houses in 2095 actually transact for (middle half of 20 bonds lodged, last 12 mo · median $2625/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).
2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $1150 → $1350/wk · -2% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for houses in 2095, all bedroom counts pooled.
Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Development potential — how Northern Beaches Council treats the work you might do
Refuses 2.88% of the development applications it decides · off-street parking 2.59% (determinations to Nov 2023).
The full outlook — every category with confidence ranges, which plan elements come unstuck, and the heritage effect by category — is under Explore the area.
Published auction results at this address
| Auction week | Result | Price | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 July 2026 | Sold prior | withheld | Clarke & Humel Property |
| 4 July 2026 | Postponed | withheld | Clarke & Humel Property |
| 27 June 2026 | Postponed | withheld | Clarke & Humel Property |
From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.
Agencies' own published sales nearby — Manly, around 4 beds
| Address | Sold | Price | Beds | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32/20 Bonner Avenue | 29 June 2026 | $5,250,000 | 3 | Cunninghams |
| 8 Herbert Street | 17 Mar 2026 | $5,300,000 | 5 | Cunninghams |
| 3/20 Birkley Road | 6 Feb 2026 | $2,550,000 | 3 | Cunninghams |
Prices as published on the selling agency's own website (their sold pages) — includes private-treaty sales the auction results never see. Only sales the agency chose to publish a figure for appear here.
Sale history — the official settled-sale record at this address
| Exchanged | Price | Change since prior sale |
|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov 1992 | $492,000 | — |
Settled-sale records from the NSW Valuer General's Property Sales Information. Dates are contract (exchange) dates; sales appear only once lodged, so the most recent months are incomplete and revise upward — never read the latest month as final. Two entries on one date are usually a single transaction recorded across parts. © State of New South Wales (Valuation NSW).
Planning & zoning — R2 Low Density Residential
Houses and dual occupancies. A protected low-rise street — little chance of towers next door.
Registered lots in Manly run 190–600 m² (middle 80% of 23 registered parcels). This one is 1,251 m² — above that range.
Whether a block this size can be subdivided or redeveloped is a separate question: minimum lot size, setbacks and the council's DCP controls decide it, and this page doesn't check them. One point per registered parcel, so a tower's parent lot counts once — not once per unit. Confirm the parcel and its controls with the council before you inspect.
Zone R2 (Low Density Residential) under the NORTHERN BEACHES LEP, as recorded against this property in the NSW Valuer General's valuation record — a guide, not a parcel-level legal check. Confirm the exact lot at the NSW Planning Portal.
Development outlook — how often Northern Beaches Council has refused this kind of work
| If you wanted to… | Refused | vs NSW | Applications decided |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alterations & additions | 1.5% (1.07–2.12%) | 0.6× (NSW 2.63%) | 32 refused of 2,128 · 15 approved with conditions |
| Off-street parking | 2.59% (1.55–4.3%) | 1× (NSW 2.58%) | 14 refused of 541 · 10 approved with conditions |
| Pool, deck or fence | 0.89% (0.51–1.54%) | 0.5× (NSW 1.73%) | 12 refused of 1,355 · 22 approved with conditions |
| Granny flat | 2.56% (1.25–5.2%) | 0.6× (NSW 4.45%) | 7 refused of 273 · 7 approved with conditions |
| Knock down & rebuild | 26.03% (17.34–37.11%) | 2.3× (NSW 11.55%) | 19 refused of 73 · 4 approved with conditions |
Across all application types Northern Beaches Council refused 2.88% (2.42–3.44%) of the 4,195 development applications it decided.
Where these applications come unstuck
The refusal rate above says how strict the council is. This says which part of a plan is exposed — measured across all 192,284 NSW development applications, not just this council. Each is an association: plenty of applications carrying these elements are approved, and nothing here is a verdict on a proposal you haven't made yet.
- Alterations & additions — a new vehicle crossing cut into the front boundary (refused 7.27% vs 2.59% for this kind of work generally — 2.8×, on 220 applications); excavation or a new lower level (refused 6.71% vs 2.54% for this kind of work generally — 2.64×, on 611 applications)
- Off-street parking — a new vehicle crossing cut into the front boundary (refused 8.45% vs 2.42% for this kind of work generally — 3.49×, on 284 applications)
- Pool, deck or fence — excavation or a new lower level (refused 6.22% vs 1.61% for this kind of work generally — 3.88×, on 659 applications); full demolition and rebuild (refused 4.97% vs 1.6% for this kind of work generally — 3.12×, on 965 applications)
- Knock down & rebuild — excavation or a new lower level (refused 25.78% vs 9.36% for this kind of work generally — 2.75×, on 256 applications); full demolition and rebuild (refused 19.91% vs 10.46% for this kind of work generally — 1.9×, on 221 applications)
Determinations lodged on the NSW Planning Portal up to Nov 2023 — the published dataset stops there, so this is a record of how the council has behaved, not a forecast and not a statement about any particular application. Rates cover development applications only; modifications and reviews of an earlier decision are excluded. A rate is shown only where at least 30 applications were decided — below that the counts are given instead, because a percentage from a handful of decisions is not a fact about a council. "Approved with conditions" is a consent, not a refusal, and is never counted as one.
Development applications — at & near this address
| Where | Proposal | Status | Outcome | Est. cost | Lodged |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ~47 m · 5 129 Bower Street Manly 2095 | Residential Flat Building, Alterations Or Additions To An Existing Building Or Structure · 1 new dwelling | Determined | not on record | $263k | 2025-09-11 |
| ~48 m · 7 Reddall Street Manly 2095 | Residential Flat Building · 6 new dwellings | Determined | Approved | $350k | 2021-06-03 |
| ~52 m · 122 Bower Street Manly 2095 | Demolition, Alterations And Additions To Residential Development | Determined | Approved | $22k | 2022-05-04 |
| ~52 m · 8 122 Bower Street Manly 2095 | Demolition, Residential Flat Building | Determined | Approved | $20k | 2022-09-16 |
| ~52 m · 8 122 Bower Street Manly 2095 | Demolition, Residential Flat Building | Determined | not on record | $300k | 2023-01-31 |
| ~101 m · Manly Surf Pavilion, South Steyne Manly Nsw 2095 | Demolition, Erection Of A New Structure, Recreation Facility (Indoor) | Additional Information Requested | not on record | $19.85M | 2025-10-07 |
Development application data © NSW Department of Planning and Environment, used under CC BY 4.0. Matched at this exact address or within ~150 m of its geocoded point — proximity evidence, not a parcel-level check. Lodged means proposed, not approved or built. Outcome comes from a separate NSW dataset that stops in Nov 2023: applications determined after that, or still undetermined, read “not on record” — which means we don't know, never that it was refused. “Status” is the council's own workflow state and “Determined” on its own does not say which way it went. Verify any application on the NSW Planning Portal.
What's changing in Manly — recent local signals
2025-12-23 — Health invest — 32 THE CORSO MANLY 2095 ($390k) (institutional-signals.json (PAN-599274, OnlineDA))
Dated public signals compiled for this suburb — openings, closures, site sales and institutional moves. Facts with sources, not forecasts.
School catchments
Manly Village PS (primary) · The Forest HS (secondary)
1 primary school within 2 km · ICSEA ~1158 — the socio-educational advantage of the school community (My School, national average ~1000): a demographic measure, never a results or quality score.
NSW DoE intake zones at this address's geocoded point — tighter than a suburb-level guess, but geocodes carry a few metres of error and boundaries change with reviews. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Green space nearby
Protected public recreation land within 100 m
Land zoned RE1 under the local environmental plan — reserved for public recreation, which protects it from being built over. The zoning doesn't say what's on it or how usable it is, and this layer doesn't carry park names.
Privately-zoned recreation land (RE2 — typically golf courses or club grounds) within 1000 m. Private land: green outlook, not public open space.
Straight-line distance, not walking distance. NSW ePlanning planning layers (Land Zoning), CC BY. Distances are ladder buckets measured at the address's geocoded point.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
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Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.