Currently listed
4 bed · 2 bath · 0 car · ApartmentUnitFlat
The Property Brief — what the evidence shows. You draw the conclusion.
Confidence: Low — based on 327 comparable auction sales (0 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±43% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · thin comparable support for this configuration — read the range as wider, not as a warning · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss
What we've tracked
- 16 Aug 2026 first tracked by our radar (the portal doesn't publish its list date)
- 27 Aug 2026 on market 11+ days — first tracked by us, a lower bound
Suburb risk flags
crime index: 68 — above sydney average · 6 min walk to Manly Wharf · ~18 min ferry to the CBD · ferries ~every 5 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye price model 2026-08-11-v5 — trained on 146,492 published auction sales; configuration-level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Evidence trail: tracked by our radar from portal listings, web-archive checks and published auction results — each entry dated
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
⏱ Days on market — this campaign
11 days since our daily sweep first saw this listing.
The portal's own campaign may have started slightly earlier than our first sighting. Longer campaigns tend to mean more negotiating room — the board's "Longest listed" sort exists for exactly that reason.
Local rents — postcode 2095 units, new tenancies
$1050/week median new-tenancy unit rent in 2095 (2026Q2, 325 bonds lodged).
The rent is real (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY) but it pools every bedroom count in the postcode and this is a 4-bed — so we don't derive a yield % from it: a ratio of two different grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents also run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Growth trend — Manly units at auction
Measured like-for-like growth ≈ -4.9%/yr — 2-bed sold-price medians across 17 quarters (138 sales).
Suburb-level, from published auction results. No single building has enough sales for a block-level series, so this is the honest grain; sales-mix shifts move raw medians, and the measured rate (when shown) controls for bed count.
Agencies' own published sales nearby — Manly, around 4 beds
| Address | Sold | Price | Beds | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32/20 Bonner Avenue | 29 June 2026 | $5,250,000 | 3 | Cunninghams |
| 8 Herbert Street | 17 Mar 2026 | $5,300,000 | 5 | Cunninghams |
| 3/20 Birkley Road | 6 Feb 2026 | $2,550,000 | 3 | Cunninghams |
Prices as published on the selling agency's own website (their sold pages) — includes private-treaty sales the auction results never see. Only sales the agency chose to publish a figure for appear here.
Planning & zoning — R1 General Residential
A mix of housing types — houses through to apartments — permitted.
Zone R1 (General Residential) under the NORTHERN BEACHES LEP, from the NSW ePlanning layers at this address's geocoded point — a guide, not a parcel-level legal check. Confirm the exact lot at the NSW Planning Portal.
Development applications — at & near this address
| Where | Proposal | Status | Outcome | Est. cost | Lodged |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ~47 m · 25 Cliff Street Manly 2095 | Balconies, Decks, Patios, Terraces Or Verandahs, Residential Flat Building · 7 new dwellings | Determined | Refused | $329k | 2021-03-02 |
| ~47 m · 25 Cliff Street Manly 2095 | Balconies, Decks, Patios, Terraces Or Verandahs, Residential Flat Building · 7 new dwellings | Determined | Approved | $437k | 2022-07-06 |
| ~78 m · 4 34 Ashburner Street Manly 2095 | Dwelling, Demolition, Alterations And Additions To Residential Development · 1 new dwelling | Determined | Approved | $65k | 2021-02-12 |
| ~85 m · 103 Addison Road Manly 2095 | Residential Flat Building, Alterations Or Additions To An Existing Building Or Structure · 4 new dwellings | Under Assessment | not on record | $811k | 2026-03-13 |
| ~94 m · 614 44 Ashburner Street Manly 2095 | Alterations Or Additions To An Existing Building Or Structure | Cancelled | not on record | $440k | — |
| ~94 m · 614 44 Ashburner Street Manly 2095 | Residential Flat Building, Alterations Or Additions To An Existing Building Or Structure, Residential Accommodation | Determined | not on record | $440k | 2025-09-12 |
Development application data © NSW Department of Planning and Environment, used under CC BY 4.0. Matched at this exact address or within ~150 m of its geocoded point — proximity evidence, not a parcel-level check. Lodged means proposed, not approved or built. Outcome comes from a separate NSW dataset that stops in Nov 2023: applications determined after that, or still undetermined, read “not on record” — which means we don't know, never that it was refused. “Status” is the council's own workflow state and “Determined” on its own does not say which way it went. Verify any application on the NSW Planning Portal.
Construction risk — what no listing tells you
Building Commission NSW / Strata Community Association 2023 Strata Defects Survey: 53% of newly registered strata buildings reported at least one serious defect in common property (39% in the 2021 survey). Defects are common, not exceptional — and new does not mean safe (Opal Tower was under a year old).
Get an independent structural and strata inspection before you commit — the defect base rate makes it the single highest-value dollar in the purchase.
We cannot see inside a building — no one can from public records. This section states base rates and observable adjacency only, and will never call a building safe.
The building — its registered strata scheme
Strata plan SP6306 registered 1972 — the building is at least 54 years old · 4 lots in the scheme (small scheme — levies and decisions shared among few owners).
Registration is an age floor, not a build date — a converted building is older than its strata plan. Scheme records from the NSW Strata Hub. © State of New South Wales (Spatial Services, a business unit of the Department of Customer Service NSW). For current information go to spatial.nsw.gov.au.
What's changing in Manly — recent local signals
2025-12-23 — Health invest — 32 THE CORSO MANLY 2095 ($390k) (institutional-signals.json (PAN-599274, OnlineDA))
Dated public signals compiled for this suburb — openings, closures, site sales and institutional moves. Facts with sources, not forecasts.
School catchments
Manly Village PS (primary) · The Forest HS (secondary)
1 primary school within 2 km · ICSEA ~1158 — the socio-educational advantage of the school community (My School, national average ~1000): a demographic measure, never a results or quality score.
NSW DoE intake zones at this address's geocoded point — tighter than a suburb-level guess, but geocodes carry a few metres of error and boundaries change with reviews. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.
Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.