The Property Brief — what the evidence shows. You draw the conclusion.
Confidence: Low — based on 99 comparable auction sales (3 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±12% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Fremont Av | 4 bd · 2 ba | $2.8M | July 2025 |
| 8 Macarthur St | 4 bd · 2 ba | $1.8M | May 2025 |
Suburb risk flags
crime index: 44 — around sydney average · ferries ~every 15 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye price model 2026-08-11-v5 — trained on 146,492 published auction sales; configuration-level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Ermington — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Ermington · postcode 2115
$1000–$1300/wk is what 4-bed houses in 2115 actually transact for (middle half of 36 bonds lodged, last 12 mo · median $1200/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).
2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $610 → $812/wk · +7% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for houses in 2115, all bedroom counts pooled.
Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Published auction results at this address
| Auction week | Result | Price | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 July 2026 | Postponed | withheld | Belle Property Parramatta | Beecroft | Carlingford | Epping |
From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.
What's changing in Ermington — recent local signals
2025-11-19 — Place of worship departure — 471 KISSING POINT ROAD ERMINGTON 2115 (institutional-signals.json (PAN-583291, OnlineDA))
2025-06-27 — Place of worship new — 82 HUGHES AVENUE ERMINGTON 2115 ($353k) (institutional-signals.json (PAN-518247, OnlineDA))
Dated public signals compiled for this suburb — openings, closures, site sales and institutional moves. Facts with sources, not forecasts.
School catchments
Ermington WPS (primary) · Riverside GHS (secondary)
6 primary schools within 2 km · ICSEA ~1059 — the socio-educational advantage of the school community (My School, national average ~1000): a demographic measure, never a results or quality score.
Suburb-centre approximation for Ermington — addresses near a boundary can differ. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.
Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.