The Property Brief — what the evidence shows. You draw the conclusion.
Confidence: Low — based on 83 comparable auction sales (2 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±16% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · thin comparable support for this configuration — read the range as wider, not as a warning · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Nabiac Av | 4 bd · 1 ba | $2.2M | June 2025 |
| 129 Bunarba Rd | 4 bd · 3 ba | $4.1M | May 2025 |
| 29a June Pl | 4 bd · 3 ba | $2.08M | Apr 2025 |
Suburb risk flags
crime index: 20 — below sydney average · trains ~every 10 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye price model 2026-08-11-v5 — trained on 146,492 published auction sales; configuration-level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Gymea Bay — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Gymea Bay · postcode 2227
$1338–$1635/wk is what 4-bed houses in 2227 actually transact for (middle half of 12 bonds lodged, Q2 2026 · median $1550/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).
2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $695 → $1015/wk · +10% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for houses in 2227, all bedroom counts pooled.
Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Development potential — how Sutherland Shire Council treats the work you might do
Refuses 5.87% of the development applications it decides · off-street parking 6.44% (determinations to Nov 2023).
The full outlook — every category with confidence ranges, which plan elements come unstuck, and the heritage effect by category — is under Explore the area.
Published auction results at this address
| Auction week | Result | Price | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 July 2026 | Withdrawn | withheld | Pulse Property Agents |
From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.
↩ Withdrawn from auction — what happens next
Withdrawn from auction isn't the end of a sale — of withdrawn Sydney homes that went on to sell, half sold within 65 days.
63% sold within three months of the scheduled auction.
1,535 withdrawn-then-sold homes across Sydney. We don't publish a price figure for withdrawn homes: the measured gap is too unstable to stand behind, and a number we can't defend is worse than none. Based on withdrawn homes that later sold. Homes that never sold aren't in the figure — withdrawal sometimes means a private deal was already done, and sometimes means the listing simply ended.
Planning & zoning — C3 Environmental Management
Environmentally sensitive land — development is constrained.
Registered lots in Gymea Bay run 540–1,030 m² (middle 80% of 35 registered parcels). This one is 569 m² — inside that range.
Whether a block this size can be subdivided or redeveloped is a separate question: minimum lot size, setbacks and the council's DCP controls decide it, and this page doesn't check them. One point per registered parcel, so a tower's parent lot counts once — not once per unit. Confirm the parcel and its controls with the council before you inspect.
Zone C3 (Environmental Management) under the SUTHERLAND SHIRE LEP, as recorded against this property in the NSW Valuer General's valuation record — a guide, not a parcel-level legal check. Confirm the exact lot at the NSW Planning Portal.
Development outlook — how often Sutherland Shire Council has refused this kind of work
| If you wanted to… | Refused | vs NSW | Applications decided |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alterations & additions | 3.24% (2.43–4.31%) | 1.2× (NSW 2.63%) | 45 refused of 1,387 · 22 approved with conditions |
| Off-street parking | 6.44% (3.94–10.35%) | 2.5× (NSW 2.58%) | 15 refused of 233 |
| Pool, deck or fence | 3.81% (2.86–5.06%) | 2.2× (NSW 1.73%) | 45 refused of 1,181 · 14 approved with conditions |
| Granny flat | 16.23% (11.24–22.87%) | 3.6× (NSW 4.45%) | 25 refused of 154 · 4 approved with conditions |
| Knock down & rebuild | 23.81% (13.48–38.53%) | 2.1× (NSW 11.55%) | 10 refused of 42 · 1 approved with conditions |
Across all application types Sutherland Shire Council refused 5.87% (5.16–6.68%) of the 3,711 development applications it decided.
Where these applications come unstuck
The refusal rate above says how strict the council is. This says which part of a plan is exposed — measured across all 192,284 NSW development applications, not just this council. Each is an association: plenty of applications carrying these elements are approved, and nothing here is a verdict on a proposal you haven't made yet.
- Alterations & additions — a new vehicle crossing cut into the front boundary (refused 7.27% vs 2.59% for this kind of work generally — 2.8×, on 220 applications); excavation or a new lower level (refused 6.71% vs 2.54% for this kind of work generally — 2.64×, on 611 applications)
- Off-street parking — a new vehicle crossing cut into the front boundary (refused 8.45% vs 2.42% for this kind of work generally — 3.49×, on 284 applications)
- Pool, deck or fence — excavation or a new lower level (refused 6.22% vs 1.61% for this kind of work generally — 3.88×, on 659 applications); full demolition and rebuild (refused 4.97% vs 1.6% for this kind of work generally — 3.12×, on 965 applications)
- Knock down & rebuild — excavation or a new lower level (refused 25.78% vs 9.36% for this kind of work generally — 2.75×, on 256 applications); full demolition and rebuild (refused 19.91% vs 10.46% for this kind of work generally — 1.9×, on 221 applications)
Determinations lodged on the NSW Planning Portal up to Nov 2023 — the published dataset stops there, so this is a record of how the council has behaved, not a forecast and not a statement about any particular application. Rates cover development applications only; modifications and reviews of an earlier decision are excluded. A rate is shown only where at least 30 applications were decided — below that the counts are given instead, because a percentage from a handful of decisions is not a fact about a council. "Approved with conditions" is a consent, not a refusal, and is never counted as one.
School catchments
Yowie Bay PS (primary) · Port Hacking HS (secondary)
4 primary schools within 2 km · ICSEA ~1072 — the socio-educational advantage of the school community (My School, national average ~1000): a demographic measure, never a results or quality score.
NSW DoE intake zones at this address's geocoded point — tighter than a suburb-level guess, but geocodes carry a few metres of error and boundaries change with reviews. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.
Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.