The Property Brief — what the evidence shows. You draw the conclusion.
Confidence: Low — based on 300 comparable auction sales (0 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±27% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · thin comparable support for this configuration — read the range as wider, not as a warning · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83 Chelmsford Av | 5 bd · 2 ba | $3.3M | Sept 2025 |
| 158 Carlingford Rd | 5 bd · 2 ba | $2.45M | Sept 2025 |
| 5 Dunmore Rd | 5 bd · 3 ba | $3.42M | Sept 2025 |
| 22 Dawson St | 5 bd · 3 ba | $2.77M | Sept 2025 |
Suburb risk flags
crime index: 24 — below sydney average · trains ~every 2 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye price model 2026-08-11-v5 — trained on 146,492 published auction sales; configuration-level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Epping — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Epping · postcode 2121
$1262–$1550/wk is what 5-bed houses in 2121 actually transact for (middle half of 16 bonds lodged, Q2 2026 · median $1425/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).
2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $640 → $1030/wk · +9% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for houses in 2121, all bedroom counts pooled.
Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Published auction results at this address
| Auction week | Result | Price | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Aug 2026 | Passed in | withheld | Uniland Real Estate | Epping & Castle Hill |
From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.
Agencies' own published sales nearby — Epping, around 5 beds
| Address | Sold | Price | Beds | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Rose Street | 24 Jan 2023 | $2,300,000 | 4 | Harris Partners |
Prices as published on the selling agency's own website (their sold pages) — includes private-treaty sales the auction results never see. Only sales the agency chose to publish a figure for appear here.
⏭ It passed in — what happens next — the question the listing stops at
Across Sydney, homes that passed in and later sold went for about 6% less than comparable homes that sold under the hammer.
Half sold within 33 days, 76% within three months.
Like-for-like within bedroom and property-type groups · 63 comparison groups across Sydney, sales settled in the last two years. Based on passed-in homes that later sold. Homes that never sold aren't in the figure, so read this as what a sale fetches — not what the home is worth. Passing in is a negotiating position, not a verdict — this is evidence about outcomes, never advice on what to offer.
Sale history — the official settled-sale record at this address
| Exchanged | Price | Change since prior sale |
|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug 2025 | $4,050,000 | — |
Settled-sale records from the NSW Valuer General's Property Sales Information. Dates are contract (exchange) dates; sales appear only once lodged, so the most recent months are incomplete and revise upward — never read the latest month as final. Two entries on one date are usually a single transaction recorded across parts. © State of New South Wales (Valuation NSW).
What's changing in Epping — recent local signals
2026-07-15 — Education new — 50 OXFORD STREET EPPING 2121 ($1216k) (institutional-signals.json (PAN-655253, OnlineDA))
2026-05-15 — Aged care / seniors invest — 43 OXFORD STREET EPPING 2121 ($115188k) (institutional-signals.json (PAN-635241, OnlineDA))
2025-08-18 — Childcare departure — 2 DOWNING STREET EPPING 2121 ($4960k) (institutional-signals.json (PAN-562789, OnlineDA))
Dated public signals compiled for this suburb — openings, closures, site sales and institutional moves. Facts with sources, not forecasts.
School catchments
Epping WPS (primary) · Epping BHS (secondary)
4 primary schools within 2 km · ICSEA ~1126 — the socio-educational advantage of the school community (My School, national average ~1000): a demographic measure, never a results or quality score.
Suburb-centre approximation for Epping — addresses near a boundary can differ. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.
Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.