40 Dransfield Av · Mascot NSW 2020

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Currently listed — $2,300,000

3 bed · 1 bath · 2 car · House · 462 m² land

⏳ Last confirmed on the market 15 days ago — it may have sold or been withdrawn since; the price shown is the last one advertised.

View the original listing →

Your buyer evidence guide

Understand the home before the offer.

The useful records, what they mean, and the questions they leave open. Start here, then explore the evidence below.

The listing we observed

3 bedrooms · House

Listing details describe the advertised home. They do not verify its condition or approved use.

The Agency - NSW · last observed 30 Sept 2026

Recorded sales at this address

1 recorded sale

A previous sale is a useful reference, but its date and any changes to the home matter. It is not today's value.

Valuation NSW · dates and prices in Sale history below

How much price evidence fits

106 sales in the wider suburb/type pool

The wider pool is not a set of identical homes. Bedroom count, condition and location within the suburb affect comparability.

Published auction evidence · model trained through 2026-09-15

What deserves a closer look

  • asking $2.3M
  • first tracked by our radar (the portal doesn't publish its list date)
  • auction: Passed in ( The Agency)

These are recorded events, not evidence of the seller's motivation.

What we still cannot tell you

  • Direct price support is limited. Read the comparable sales and the estimate's uncertainty together.
  • Public records and an automated estimate cannot establish whether the home is defect-free, what the contract contains, or why the owner is selling.
Questions to take to the inspection

Use these with the agent and your independent advisers. An answer is something to verify, not a fact we have recorded.

  1. Which recent sales are most comparable to this home, and how do their size, condition and position differ?
  2. What repairs, alterations or water issues are documented, and what can an independent inspection verify?
  3. Do the planning and heritage records match this exact lot, and what approvals exist for alterations?

The estimate is a model output. The records are evidence. Your inspection and document checks fill the gaps.

Is the asking price plausible?

This is a comparison with the evidence we hold, not a valuation or a recommended offer.

CONSERVATIVE
$2.24M
the calibrated floor
LIKELY FAIR RANGE
$2.24M–$2.87M
around $2.54M mid
STRETCH CAP
$2.87M
$3.36M on the wider 80% band

Confidence: Low — based on 106 comparable auction sales (22 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±12% for this configuration · priced from this property's own records: block size, land value, previous sale · thin comparable support for this configuration — read the range as wider, not as a warning

How this estimate was made
  • Method: AI PropertyEye tree model · trained through 2026-09-15
  • Inputs used for this home: priced from this property's own records: block size, land value, previous sale
  • Comparable support: 106 sales in the wider suburb/type pool; 22 of this exact configuration
  • When to be more cautious: This configuration has thin direct comparable support, so its range is deliberately wider.

Comparable auction sales

AddressConfigSoldWhen
29 Hardie St3 bd · 1 ba$1.83MJune 2025
27 Malcolm St3 bd · 2 ba$2.06MMay 2025

Suburb risk flags

flood exposure 49% of the suburb · bushfire exposure 0% · aircraft noise high · crime index: 59 — around sydney average · 9 min walk to Mascot · ~10 min train to the CBD · trains ~every 8 min at peak

Where every number comes from
  • Fair value: AI PropertyEye tree model 2026-09-02-v7-price-model-v6-full-grid, trained through 2026-09-15 — trained on 169,861 published auction sales; priced per address where this home's own records reach the model (see "How this estimate was made"), otherwise at configuration level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
  • Comps: published Domain auction results for Mascot — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
  • Evidence trail: tracked by our radar from portal listings, web-archive checks and published auction results — each entry dated
  • Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment

What changed recently?

  • 20 June 2026 auction: Passed in ( The Agency)
  • 17 Aug 2026 first tracked by our radar (the portal doesn't publish its list date)
  • 27 Aug 2026 asking $2.3M
  • 17 Oct 2026 on market 60+ days — first tracked by us, a lower bound

What to inspect before you offer

  • Condition, aspect, renovation and the contract — these can materially change price, and the estimate cannot see them.
  • Planning controls and heritage status — confirm the exact lot, not just the address-level guide, before relying on development potential.

These are due-diligence prompts, not a verdict on this property.

⏱ Days on market — this campaign

60 days since our daily sweep first saw this listing.

The portal's own campaign may have started slightly earlier than our first sighting. Longer campaigns tend to mean more negotiating room — the board's "Longest listed" sort exists for exactly that reason.

Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Mascot · postcode 2020

$1062–$1369/wk is what 3-bed houses in 2020 actually transact for (middle half of 18 bonds lodged, Q2 2026 · median $1225/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).


2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $750 → $1200/wk · +11% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for houses in 2020, all bedroom counts pooled.

Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.

Land — for a house, the land is the asset

462 m² · up to ~254 m² of floor space under the current FSR (a guide — setbacks and height also apply)

A house's size is its land. An apartment's advertised "size" can include car space and balcony — the two are never comparable and this site never pools them. Lot details and planning controls sit under Explore the area.

Development potential — how Bayside Council treats the work you might do

Refuses 9.51% of the development applications it decides · off-street parking 5.56% (determinations to Nov 2023).

The full outlook — every category with confidence ranges, which plan elements come unstuck, and the heritage effect by category — is under Explore the area.

Published auction results at this address

Auction weekResultPriceAgency
20 June 2026Passed inwithheld The Agency

From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.

Agencies' own published sales nearby — Mascot, around 3 beds

AddressSoldPriceBedsAgency
412/149-161 O'riordan Streetby 9 Oct 2026$840,0003Laing+Simmons
17/109 O'Riordan Street10 Sept 2026$850,0002Harris Partners
414/42 Church Avenueby 17 Aug 2026$1,390,0003Meriton
453/63 Church Avenueby 17 Aug 2026$900,0002Meriton
401/12 Galloway Streetby 17 Aug 2026$1,375,0003Meriton

Prices as published on the selling agency's own website (their sold pages) — includes private-treaty sales the auction results never see. Only sales the agency chose to publish a figure for appear here.

Similar properties — on the market now

The 6 listings above are on the market now: same house category, within 1 bedroom of 3, asking within 20% of this one, in Mascot or a suburb whose centre is within 3 km — ordered by how close the asking price is. That is the whole rule: a filter, not a recommendation, and nothing here judges which home is better.

⏭ It passed in — what happens next — the question the listing stops at

Across Sydney, homes that passed in and later sold went for about 6% less than comparable homes that sold under the hammer.

Half sold within 33 days, 75% within three months.

Like-for-like within bedroom and property-type groups · 50 comparison groups across Sydney, sales settled in the last two years. Based on passed-in homes that later sold. Homes that never sold aren't in the figure, so read this as what a sale fetches — not what the home is worth. Passing in is a negotiating position, not a verdict — this is evidence about outcomes, never advice on what to offer.

Sale history — the official settled-sale record at this address

ExchangedPriceChange since prior sale
7 Oct 2023 $2,455,000 —

Settled-sale records from the NSW Valuer General's Property Sales Information. Dates are contract (exchange) dates; sales appear only once lodged, so the most recent months are incomplete and revise upward — never read the latest month as final. Two entries on one date are usually a single transaction recorded across parts. © State of New South Wales (Valuation NSW).

Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?

Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.

Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.