40 Dransfield Av · Mascot NSW 2020

Mascot suburb intelligence · all Sydney suburbs

Mascot suburb ← Back to board
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Currently listed — $2,300,000

3 bed · 1 bath · 2 car · House · 462 m² land

View the live listing →

The Property Brief — what the evidence shows. You draw the conclusion.

CONSERVATIVE
$1.95M
the calibrated floor
LIKELY FAIR RANGE
$1.95M–$2.48M
around $2.21M mid
STRETCH CAP
$2.48M
$2.65M on the wider 80% band

Confidence: High — based on 106 comparable auction sales (22 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±12% for this configuration · adjusted for this block's land size · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss

What we've tracked

  • 20 June 2026 auction: Passed in ( The Agency)
  • 17 Aug 2026 first tracked by our radar (the portal doesn't publish its list date)
  • 27 Aug 2026 asking $2.3M
  • 27 Aug 2026 on market 10+ days — first tracked by us, a lower bound

Comparable auction sales

AddressConfigSoldWhen
29 Hardie St3 bd · 1 ba$1.83MJune 2025
27 Malcolm St3 bd · 2 ba$2.06MMay 2025

Suburb risk flags

flood exposure 49% of the suburb · bushfire exposure 0% · aircraft noise high · crime index: 59 — around sydney average · 9 min walk to Mascot · ~10 min train to the CBD · trains ~every 8 min at peak

Where every number comes from
  • Fair value: AI PropertyEye price model 2026-08-11-v5 — trained on 146,492 published auction sales; configuration-level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
  • Comps: published Domain auction results for Mascot — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
  • Evidence trail: tracked by our radar from portal listings, web-archive checks and published auction results — each entry dated
  • Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment

⏱ Days on market — this campaign

10 days since our daily sweep first saw this listing.

The portal's own campaign may have started slightly earlier than our first sighting. Longer campaigns tend to mean more negotiating room — the board's "Longest listed" sort exists for exactly that reason.

Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Mascot · postcode 2020

$1062–$1369/wk is what 3-bed houses in 2020 actually transact for (middle half of 18 bonds lodged, Q2 2026 · median $1225/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).


2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $750 → $1200/wk · +11% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for houses in 2020, all bedroom counts pooled.

Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.

Land — for a house, the land is the asset

462 m² · up to ~254 m² of floor space under the current FSR (a guide — setbacks and height also apply)

A house's size is its land. An apartment's advertised "size" can include car space and balcony — the two are never comparable and this site never pools them. Lot details and planning controls sit under Explore the area.

Development potential — how Bayside Council treats the work you might do

Refuses 9.51% of the development applications it decides · off-street parking 5.56% (determinations to Nov 2023).

The full outlook — every category with confidence ranges, which plan elements come unstuck, and the heritage effect by category — is under Explore the area.

Published auction results at this address

Auction weekResultPriceAgency
20 June 2026Passed inwithheld The Agency

From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.

Agencies' own published sales nearby — Mascot, around 3 beds

AddressSoldPriceBedsAgency
414/42 Church Avenueby 17 Aug 2026$1,390,0003Meriton
453/63 Church Avenueby 17 Aug 2026$900,0002Meriton
401/12 Galloway Streetby 17 Aug 2026$1,375,0003Meriton
629/44 Church Avenueby 17 Aug 2026$955,0002Meriton

Prices as published on the selling agency's own website (their sold pages) — includes private-treaty sales the auction results never see. Only sales the agency chose to publish a figure for appear here.

Similar properties — on the market now

The 6 listings above are on the market now: same house category, within 1 bedroom of 3, asking within 20% of this one, in Mascot or a suburb whose centre is within 3 km — ordered by how close the asking price is. That is the whole rule: a filter, not a recommendation, and nothing here judges which home is better.

⏭ It passed in — what happens next — the question the listing stops at

Across Sydney, homes that passed in and later sold went for about 6% less than comparable homes that sold under the hammer.

Half sold within 33 days, 76% within three months.

Like-for-like within bedroom and property-type groups · 64 comparison groups across Sydney, sales settled in the last two years. Based on passed-in homes that later sold. Homes that never sold aren't in the figure, so read this as what a sale fetches — not what the home is worth. Passing in is a negotiating position, not a verdict — this is evidence about outcomes, never advice on what to offer.

Sale history — the official settled-sale record at this address

ExchangedPriceChange since prior sale
7 Oct 2023 $2,455,000

Settled-sale records from the NSW Valuer General's Property Sales Information. Dates are contract (exchange) dates; sales appear only once lodged, so the most recent months are incomplete and revise upward — never read the latest month as final. Two entries on one date are usually a single transaction recorded across parts. © State of New South Wales (Valuation NSW).

Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?

Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.

Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.