Is the asking price plausible?
This is a comparison with the evidence we hold, not a valuation or a recommended offer.
Confidence: Low — based on 141 comparable auction sales (6 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±11% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · priced from this property's own records: previous sale · the model's typical miss is ~10% against published results — every hit and miss
How this estimate was made
- Method: AI PropertyEye tree model · trained through 2026-09-03
- Inputs used for this home: priced from this property's own records: previous sale
- Comparable support: 141 sales in the wider suburb/type pool; 6 of this exact configuration
- When to be more cautious: Condition, aspect, renovation and the contract are not model inputs and can move the eventual sale price.
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 620/2-4 Lachlan St | 2 bd · 2 ba | $1.02M | Sept 2025 |
| 301/18 Danks St | 2 bd · 2 ba | $2.12M | June 2025 |
| 84/7 Broome St | 2 bd · 2 ba | $935k | June 2025 |
| 308/11A Lachlan St | 2 bd · 1 ba | $780k | June 2025 |
| 302/18 Amelia St | 2 bd · 2 ba | $1.07M | May 2025 |
| 311/8 Lachlan St | 2 bd · 2 ba | $860k | May 2025 |
Suburb risk flags
flood exposure 35% of the suburb · bushfire exposure 0% · aircraft noise low · crime index: 97 — well above sydney average · 2 min walk to Waterloo Metro · ~5 min metro to the CBD · metro ~every 4 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye tree model 2026-09-02-v7-price-model-v6-full-grid, trained through 2026-09-03 — trained on 169,356 published auction sales; priced per address where this home's own records reach the model (see "How this estimate was made"), otherwise at configuration level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Waterloo — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
What to inspect before you offer
- Condition, aspect, renovation and the contract — these can materially change price, and the estimate cannot see them.
- 6 development applications are recorded at or near this address — check the source records and current status.
- Planning controls and heritage status — confirm the exact lot, not just the address-level guide, before relying on development potential.
- Building condition: public records cannot establish that a building is defect-free; inspect independently.
These are due-diligence prompts, not a verdict on this property.
Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Waterloo · postcode 2017
$1100–$1295/wk is what 2-bed units in 2017 actually transact for (middle half of 517 bonds lodged, Q2 2026 · median $1200/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).
2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $730 → $1065/wk · +3% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for units in 2017, all bedroom counts pooled.
Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Growth trend — Waterloo units at auction
Measured like-for-like growth ≈ 5.0%/yr — 2-bed sold-price medians across 14 quarters (59 sales).
Suburb-level, from published auction results. No single building has enough sales for a block-level series, so this is the honest grain; sales-mix shifts move raw medians, and the measured rate (when shown) controls for bed count.
Published auction results at this address
| Auction week | Result | Price | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 May 2026 | Sold prior | $1,075,000 | — |
From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.
Agencies' own published sales nearby — Waterloo, around 2 beds
| Address | Sold | Price | Beds | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 325/8 Lachlan Street | by 17 Aug 2026 | $602,000 | 1 | Meriton |
| 267/8 Lachlan Street | by 17 Aug 2026 | $575,000 | 1 | Meriton |
| 302/6 Lachlan Street | by 17 Aug 2026 | $640,000 | 1 | Meriton |
| 727/7 Potter Street | by 17 Aug 2026 | $940,000 | 2 | Meriton |
| 518/7 Potter Street | by 17 Aug 2026 | $930,000 | 2 | Meriton |
Prices as published on the selling agency's own website (their sold pages) — includes private-treaty sales the auction results never see. Only sales the agency chose to publish a figure for appear here.
Sale history — the official settled-sale record at this address
| Exchanged | Price | Change since prior sale |
|---|---|---|
| 16 Nov 2015 | $790,000 | — |
| 28 May 2026 | $1,075,000 | +36.1% over 10.5 yrs |
Settled-sale records from the NSW Valuer General's Property Sales Information. Dates are contract (exchange) dates; sales appear only once lodged, so the most recent months are incomplete and revise upward — never read the latest month as final. Two entries on one date are usually a single transaction recorded across parts. © State of New South Wales (Valuation NSW).
Planning & zoning — MU1 Mixed Use
Shops/offices below, apartments above. Walkable and lively, but denser and busier.
Zone MU1 (Mixed Use) under the SYDNEY LEP, from the NSW ePlanning layers at this address's geocoded point — a guide, not a parcel-level legal check. Confirm the exact lot at the NSW Planning Portal.
Development applications — at & near this address
| Where | Proposal | Status | Outcome | Est. cost | Lodged |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ~74 m · 131 Botany Road Waterloo 2017 | Boarding House · 11 new dwellings | Determined | Approved | $660k | 2020-10-07 |
| ~82 m · 125-129 Botany Road Waterloo 2017 | Change Of Use Of Land Or A Building Or The Classification Of A Building Under The Building Code Of Australia, Animal Care Premises, Hours Of Operation And Trading | Determined | not on record | $11k | 2025-08-15 |
| ~114 m · 158 Botany Road Alexandria 2015 | Commercial Development, Office Premise, Change Of Use Of Land Or A Building Or The Classification Of A Building Under The Building Code Of Australia | Operational consent issued | not on record | $30.16M | 2023-11-07 |
| ~135 m · 1 134-136 Botany Road Alexandria 2015 | Office Premises, Retail Premises · 10 new dwellings | Withdrawn | not on record | $6.46M | 2023-08-14 |
| ~135 m · 1 134-136 Botany Road Alexandria 2015 | Demolition, Office Premise, Erection Of A New Structure · 10 new dwellings | Deferred Commencement | not on record | $6.84M | 2025-06-11 |
| ~146 m · 171b Botany Road Waterloo 2017 | Demolition, Shop Top Housing · 47 new dwellings | Determined | not on record | $20.09M | 2022-02-17 |
Development application data © NSW Department of Planning and Environment, used under CC BY 4.0. Matched at this exact address or within ~150 m of its geocoded point — proximity evidence, not a parcel-level check. Lodged means proposed, not approved or built. Outcome comes from a separate NSW dataset that stops in Nov 2023: applications determined after that, or still undetermined, read “not on record” — which means we don't know, never that it was refused. “Status” is the council's own workflow state and “Determined” on its own does not say which way it went. Verify any application on the NSW Planning Portal.
Construction risk — what no listing tells you
Building Commission NSW / Strata Community Association 2023 Strata Defects Survey: 53% of newly registered strata buildings reported at least one serious defect in common property (39% in the 2021 survey). Defects are common, not exceptional — and new does not mean safe (Opal Tower was under a year old).
Get an independent structural and strata inspection before you commit — the defect base rate makes it the single highest-value dollar in the purchase.
We cannot see inside a building — no one can from public records. This section states base rates and observable adjacency only, and will never call a building safe.
What's changing in Waterloo — recent local signals
2026-08-24 — Development site — listing's own words: "STCA" (131 Botany Road, Waterloo, NSW 2017) (listing rea-149440776 (rea), first seen 2026-08-24)
2026-08-14 — Development site — listing's own words: "STCA" (672 Elizabeth Street, Waterloo, NSW 2017) (listing rea-151639380 (rea), first seen 2026-08-14)
2026-07-31 — Place of worship invest — 2-6 KELLICK STREET WATERLOO 2017 ($987k) (institutional-signals.json (PAN-660763, OnlineDA))
Dated public signals compiled for this suburb — openings, closures, site sales and institutional moves. Facts with sources, not forecasts.
School catchments
Alexandria Park CS (primary) · Alexandria Park CS (secondary)
6 primary schools within 2 km · ICSEA ~1105 — the socio-educational advantage of the school community (My School, national average ~1000): a demographic measure, never a results or quality score.
NSW DoE intake zones at this address's geocoded point — tighter than a suburb-level guess, but geocodes carry a few metres of error and boundaries change with reviews. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.
Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.