The Property Brief — what the evidence shows. You draw the conclusion.
Confidence: Low — based on 280 comparable auction sales (0 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±21% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · thin comparable support for this configuration — read the range as wider, not as a warning · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Wilshire Av | 5 bd · 3 ba | $2.1M | June 2025 |
| 11 Montgomery Rd | 5 bd · 2 ba | $2.78M | June 2025 |
Suburb risk flags
crime index: 33 — below sydney average · light rail ~every 7 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye price model 2026-08-11-v5 — trained on 146,492 published auction sales; configuration-level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Carlingford — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Carlingford · postcode 2118
$1000–$1300/wk is what 5-bed houses in 2118 actually transact for (middle half of 41 bonds lodged, last 12 mo · median $1100/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).
2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $600 → $905/wk · +5% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for houses in 2118, all bedroom counts pooled.
Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Published auction results at this address
| Auction week | Result | Price | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Aug 2026 | Passed in | withheld | Ray White Epping SYD |
From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.
⏭ It passed in — what happens next — the question the listing stops at
Across Sydney, homes that passed in and later sold went for about 6% less than comparable homes that sold under the hammer.
Half sold within 33 days, 76% within three months.
Like-for-like within bedroom and property-type groups · 63 comparison groups across Sydney, sales settled in the last two years. Based on passed-in homes that later sold. Homes that never sold aren't in the figure, so read this as what a sale fetches — not what the home is worth. Passing in is a negotiating position, not a verdict — this is evidence about outcomes, never advice on what to offer.
Sale history — the official settled-sale record at this address
| Exchanged | Price | Change since prior sale |
|---|---|---|
| 19 May 2022 | $3,050,000 | — |
Settled-sale records from the NSW Valuer General's Property Sales Information. Dates are contract (exchange) dates; sales appear only once lodged, so the most recent months are incomplete and revise upward — never read the latest month as final. Two entries on one date are usually a single transaction recorded across parts. © State of New South Wales (Valuation NSW).
Development applications — at & near this address
| Where | Proposal | Status | Outcome | Est. cost | Lodged |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This address | Dual Occupancy · 2 new dwellings | Deferred Commencement | Approved, with conditions | $1.49M | 2021-09-18 |
| ~21 m · 46 Raimonde Road Carlingford 2118 | Dual Occupancy · 2 new dwellings | Determined | Refused | $1.37M | 2020-06-26 |
Development application data © NSW Department of Planning and Environment, used under CC BY 4.0. Matched at this exact address or within ~150 m of its geocoded point — proximity evidence, not a parcel-level check. Lodged means proposed, not approved or built. Outcome comes from a separate NSW dataset that stops in Nov 2023: applications determined after that, or still undetermined, read “not on record” — which means we don't know, never that it was refused. “Status” is the council's own workflow state and “Determined” on its own does not say which way it went. Verify any application on the NSW Planning Portal.
What's changing in Carlingford — recent local signals
2026-08-12 — Place of worship departure — 32 MOSELEY STREET CARLINGFORD 2118 (institutional-signals.json (PAN-661829, OnlineDA))
2025-11-20 — Childcare new — 15B MOSELEY STREET CARLINGFORD 2118 ($48678k) (institutional-signals.json (PAN-590814, OnlineDA))
2025-11-17 — Aged care / seniors departure — 43-47 MURRAY FARM ROAD CARLINGFORD 2118 (institutional-signals.json (PAN-589152, OnlineDA))
Dated public signals compiled for this suburb — openings, closures, site sales and institutional moves. Facts with sources, not forecasts.
School catchments
Carlingford WPS (primary) · Cumberland HS (secondary)
4 primary schools within 2 km · ICSEA ~1100 — the socio-educational advantage of the school community (My School, national average ~1000): a demographic measure, never a results or quality score.
Suburb-centre approximation for Carlingford — addresses near a boundary can differ. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.
Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.