The listing we observed
3 bedrooms · House
Listing details describe the advertised home. They do not verify its condition or approved use.
David Smith-Cameron · last observed 14 Oct 2026← swipe · 10 photos
Currently listed — $2,200,000 ▼ Reduced 22% · $625k · 2 days ago
3 bed · 1 bath · House
Asking price cut 22% ($625k, from $2,825,000 to $2,200,000) 2 days ago. The vendor has already moved once: negotiate below the NEW asking, not at it.
Your buyer evidence guide
Understand the home before the offer.
The useful records, what they mean, and the questions they leave open. Start here, then explore the evidence below.
Recorded sales at this address
1 recorded sale
A previous sale is a useful reference, but its date and any changes to the home matter. It is not today's value.
Valuation NSW · dates and prices in Sale history belowHow much price evidence fits
111 sales in the wider suburb/type pool
The wider pool is not a set of identical homes. Bedroom count, condition and location within the suburb affect comparability.
Published auction evidence · model trained through 2026-09-15Planning activity nearby
6 recorded applications at or near this address
An application is not an approval or a promise that building work will happen. Location and stage matter.
NSW Planning Portal · individual records in Explore the areaWhat deserves a closer look
- price cut $625k — to $2.2M
- price raised $325k — to $2.83M
- asking $2.5M
These are recorded events, not evidence of the seller's motivation.
What we still cannot tell you
- Direct price support is limited. Read the comparable sales and the estimate's uncertainty together.
- Public records and an automated estimate cannot establish whether the home is defect-free, what the contract contains, or why the owner is selling.
Questions to take to the inspection
Use these with the agent and your independent advisers. An answer is something to verify, not a fact we have recorded.
- Which nearby applications affect this home, and what stage has each actually reached?
- Which recent sales are most comparable to this home, and how do their size, condition and position differ?
- What repairs, alterations or water issues are documented, and what can an independent inspection verify?
- Do the planning and heritage records match this exact lot, and what approvals exist for alterations?
The estimate is a model output. The records are evidence. Your inspection and document checks fill the gaps.
Is the asking price plausible?
This is a comparison with the evidence we hold, not a valuation or a recommended offer.
CONSERVATIVE
$2.03M
the calibrated floor
LIKELY FAIR RANGE
$2.03M–$2.67M
around $2.31M mid
STRETCH CAP
$2.67M
$3.19M on the wider 80% band
Confidence: Low — based on 111 comparable auction sales (2 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±14% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · priced from this property's own records: block size, land value, previous sale · thin comparable support for this configuration — read the range as wider, not as a warning · the model's typical miss is ~12% against published results — every hit and miss
How this estimate was made
- Method: AI PropertyEye tree model · trained through 2026-09-15
- Inputs used for this home: priced from this property's own records: block size, land value, previous sale
- Comparable support: 111 sales in the wider suburb/type pool; 2 of this exact configuration
- When to be more cautious: This configuration has thin direct comparable support, so its range is deliberately wider.
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 Fitzroy St | 3 bd · 1 ba | $2.33M | June 2025 |
| 49 Mackey St | 3 bd · 1 ba | $2.1M | May 2025 |
| 44 Nickson St | 3 bd · 3 ba | $2.92M | May 2025 |
| 613 Bourke St | 3 bd · 3 ba | $4.35M | May 2025 |
| 5 Wilshire St | 3 bd · 2 ba | $2.63M | May 2025 |
Suburb risk flags
crime index: 100 — well above sydney average · 10 min walk to Central · trains ~every 2 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye tree model 2026-09-02-v7-price-model-v6-full-grid, trained through 2026-09-15 — trained on 169,861 published auction sales; priced per address where this home's own records reach the model (see "How this estimate was made"), otherwise at configuration level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Surry Hills — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Evidence trail: tracked by our radar from portal listings, web-archive checks and published auction results — each entry dated
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
What changed recently?
- 14 Aug 2026 our tracking restarted after a six-week portal gap — the campaign start is unknown, this is not a listing date
- 18 Aug 2026 asking $2.5M
- 24 Sept 2026 price raised $325k — to $2.83M
- 12 Oct 2026 price cut $625k — to $2.2M
What to inspect before you offer
- Condition, aspect, renovation and the contract — these can materially change price, and the estimate cannot see them.
- 6 development applications are recorded at or near this address — check the source records and current status.
- Planning controls and heritage status — confirm the exact lot, not just the address-level guide, before relying on development potential.
These are due-diligence prompts, not a verdict on this property.
Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Surry Hills · postcode 2010
$1250–$1700/wk is what 3-bed houses in 2010 actually transact for (middle half of 41 bonds lodged, Q2 2026 · median $1425/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).
2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $750 → $1150/wk · +8% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for houses in 2010, all bedroom counts pooled.
Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Development potential — how Council of the City of Sydney treats the work you might do
Refuses 2.61% of the development applications it decides · off-street parking 3.08% (determinations to Nov 2023).
The full outlook — every category with confidence ranges, which plan elements come unstuck, and the heritage effect by category — is under Explore the area.
Similar properties — on the market now
$2,200,000
33 Boundary Street
Darlinghurst · 1.0 km away
2 bed · 2 bath
$2,200,000
11 Hoddle Street
Paddington · 1.3 km away
2 bed · 1 bath
▼ Reduced 12% · $300k · 2 weeks ago
$2,200,000
8 Elfred Street
Paddington · 1.3 km away
3 bed · 2 bath
New · 2 days ago
$2,200,000
107-109 Wyndham Street
Alexandria · 2.5 km away
4 bed · 2 bath · 0 car
$2,250,000
103 Greens Road
Paddington · 1.3 km away
4 bed · 1 bath
$2,100,000
340 Cleveland Street
Surry Hills
3 bed · 2 bath · 1 car
The 6 listings above are on the market now: same house category, within 1 bedroom of 3, asking within 20% of this one, in Surry Hills or a suburb whose centre is within 3 km — ordered by how close the asking price is. That is the whole rule: a filter, not a recommendation, and nothing here judges which home is better.
Sale history — the official settled-sale record at this address
| Exchanged | Price | Change since prior sale |
|---|---|---|
| 11 May 2023 | $1,900,100 | — |
Settled-sale records from the NSW Valuer General's Property Sales Information. Dates are contract (exchange) dates; sales appear only once lodged, so the most recent months are incomplete and revise upward — never read the latest month as final. Two entries on one date are usually a single transaction recorded across parts. © State of New South Wales (Valuation NSW).
Planning & zoning — MU1 Mixed Use
Shops/offices below, apartments above. Walkable and lively, but denser and busier.
Heritage conservation area — Reservoir Street & Fosterville. The property sits in a heritage conservation area — the streetscape is protected, so visible/external changes are controlled. It's area-wide, not this building specifically; it tends to preserve character and value.
Registered lots in Surry Hills run 60–220 m² (middle 80% of 57 registered parcels). This one is 109 m² — inside that range.
Whether a block this size can be subdivided or redeveloped is a separate question: minimum lot size, setbacks and the council's DCP controls decide it, and this page doesn't check them. One point per registered parcel, so a tower's parent lot counts once — not once per unit. Confirm the parcel and its controls with the council before you inspect.
Zone MU1 (Mixed Use) under the SYDNEY LEP · heritage from the NSW Heritage Map layer, as recorded against this property in the NSW Valuer General's valuation record — a guide, not a parcel-level legal check. Confirm the exact lot at the NSW Planning Portal.
Development outlook — how often Council of the City of Sydney has refused this kind of work
| If you wanted to… | Refused | vs NSW | Applications decided |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alterations & additions | 1.93% (1.34–2.78%) | 0.7× (NSW 2.63%) | 28 refused of 1,450 · 13 approved with conditions |
| Off-street parking | 3.08% (0.85–10.54%) | 1.2× (NSW 2.58%) | 2 refused of 65 · 1 approved with conditions |
| Pool, deck or fence | 3.41% (1.57–7.24%) | 2× (NSW 1.73%) | 6 refused of 176 |
| Granny flat | 3.13% (0.55–15.74%) | 0.7× (NSW 4.45%) | 1 refused of 32 · 1 approved with conditions |
| Knock down & rebuild | 5.63% (2.88–10.72%) | 0.5× (NSW 11.55%) | 8 refused of 142 · 4 approved with conditions |
Across all application types Council of the City of Sydney refused 2.61% (2.08–3.26%) of the 2,839 development applications it decided.
Where these applications come unstuck
The refusal rate above says how strict the council is. This says which part of a plan is exposed — measured across all 192,284 NSW development applications, not just this council. Each is an association: plenty of applications carrying these elements are approved, and nothing here is a verdict on a proposal you haven't made yet.
- Alterations & additions — a new vehicle crossing cut into the front boundary (refused 7.27% vs 2.59% for this kind of work generally — 2.8×, on 220 applications); excavation or a new lower level (refused 6.71% vs 2.54% for this kind of work generally — 2.64×, on 611 applications)
- Off-street parking — a new vehicle crossing cut into the front boundary (refused 8.45% vs 2.42% for this kind of work generally — 3.49×, on 284 applications)
- Pool, deck or fence — excavation or a new lower level (refused 6.22% vs 1.61% for this kind of work generally — 3.88×, on 659 applications); full demolition and rebuild (refused 4.97% vs 1.6% for this kind of work generally — 3.12×, on 965 applications)
- Knock down & rebuild — excavation or a new lower level (refused 25.78% vs 9.36% for this kind of work generally — 2.75×, on 256 applications); full demolition and rebuild (refused 19.91% vs 10.46% for this kind of work generally — 1.9×, on 221 applications)
Because this address sits in a heritage listing
Heritage does not make everything harder — it depends entirely on what you want to do, and for some work it makes approval more likely. Measured across NSW by category:
- Alterations & additions — heritage listing raises the refusal rate: 4.39% on heritage-affected land vs 2.27% elsewhere
- Off-street parking — heritage listing raises the refusal rate: 7.37% on heritage-affected land vs 2.29% elsewhere
- Pool, deck or fence — heritage listing raises the refusal rate: 4.56% on heritage-affected land vs 1.62% elsewhere
- Granny flat — heritage listing raises the refusal rate: 9.63% on heritage-affected land vs 4.4% elsewhere
- Knock down & rebuild — heritage listing lowers the refusal rate: 7.1% on heritage-affected land vs 12.68% elsewhere — applications here are typically pre-advised and conservative
These are NSW-wide rates for heritage-affected applications, not Council of the City of Sydney-specific, and they describe applications rather than this property. The zoning section above records the actual listing at this address.
Determinations lodged on the NSW Planning Portal up to Nov 2023 — the published dataset stops there, so this is a record of how the council has behaved, not a forecast and not a statement about any particular application. Rates cover development applications only; modifications and reviews of an earlier decision are excluded. A rate is shown only where at least 30 applications were decided — below that the counts are given instead, because a percentage from a handful of decisions is not a fact about a council. "Approved with conditions" is a consent, not a refusal, and is never counted as one.
Development applications — at & near this address
| Where | Proposal | Status | Outcome | Est. cost | Lodged |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ~34 m · 93 Reservoir Street Surry Hills 2010 | Alterations And Additions To Residential Development · 1 new dwelling | Determined | Approved | $990k | 2021-05-06 |
| ~50 m · 123 Reservoir Street Surry Hills 2010 | Dwelling House, Alterations Or Additions To An Existing Building Or Structure · 1 new dwelling | Determined | not on record | $205k | 2025-09-10 |
| ~58 m · 11 Mackey Street Surry Hills 2010 | Dwelling · 1 new dwelling | Determined | Approved | $1.66M | 2021-08-04 |
| ~81 m · 25 Goodchap Street Surry Hills 2010 | Attached Dwelling, Dwelling House, Alterations Or Additions To An Existing Building Or Structure · 1 new dwelling | Cancelled | not on record | $585k | — |
| ~81 m · 25 Goodchap Street Surry Hills 2010 | Dwelling House, Alterations Or Additions To An Existing Building Or Structure | Determined | not on record | $585k | 2025-10-17 |
| ~92 m · 143 Campbell Street Surry Hills 2010 | Alterations And Additions To Commercial Development | Determined | Approved | $116k | 2021-09-02 |
Development application data © NSW Department of Planning and Environment, used under CC BY 4.0. Matched at this exact address or within ~150 m of its geocoded point — proximity evidence, not a parcel-level check. Lodged means proposed, not approved or built. Outcome comes from a separate NSW dataset that stops in Nov 2023: applications determined after that, or still undetermined, read “not on record” — which means we don't know, never that it was refused. “Status” is the council's own workflow state and “Determined” on its own does not say which way it went. Verify any application on the NSW Planning Portal.
What's changing in Surry Hills — recent local signals
2026-09-19 — Development site — listing's own words: "STCA" (62 Buckingham Street, Surry Hills, NSW 2010) (listing rea-152299264 (rea), first seen 2026-09-19)
2026-09-03 — Development site — listing's own words: "STCA" (649 Bourke Street, Surry Hills, NSW 2010) (listing rea-152239748 (rea), first seen 2026-09-03)
2026-08-16 — Development site — listing's own words: "STCA" (491-493 Elizabeth Street, Surry Hills, NSW 2010) (listing rea-137366530 (rea), first seen 2026-08-16)
Dated public signals compiled for this suburb — openings, closures, site sales and institutional moves. Facts with sources, not forecasts.
School catchments
Crown St PS (primary) · Inner Sydney HS (secondary)
9 primary schools within 2 km · ICSEA ~1104 — the socio-educational advantage of the school community (My School, national average ~1000): a demographic measure, never a results or quality score.
NSW DoE intake zones at this address's geocoded point — tighter than a suburb-level guess, but geocodes carry a few metres of error and boundaries change with reviews. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.
Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.