The listing we observed
2 bedrooms · ApartmentUnitFlat
Listing details describe the advertised home. They do not verify its condition or approved use.
Real Estate Services by Mirvac - Forest Lodge · last observed 15 Oct 2026
← swipe · 10 photos
Currently listed — $1,500,000 ▼ Reduced 3.2% · $50k · 2 cuts
2 bed · 2 bath · 1 car · Apartment / Unit
Asking price cut 3.2% ($50k, from $1,550,000 to $1,500,000) 7 days ago — the 2nd cut of this campaign. The vendor has already moved once: negotiate below the NEW asking, not at it.
Your buyer evidence guide
Understand the home before the offer.
The useful records, what they mean, and the questions they leave open. Start here, then explore the evidence below.
How much price evidence fits
47 sales in the wider suburb/type pool
The wider pool is not a set of identical homes. Bedroom count, condition and location within the suburb affect comparability.
Published auction evidence · model trained through 2026-09-15What deserves a closer look
- price cut $50k — to $1.5M
- price cut $50k — to $1.55M
- listed by the agency (portal date)
These are recorded events, not evidence of the seller's motivation.
What we still cannot tell you
- No settled-sale history is available in this page's records. This does not mean the home has never sold.
- Direct price support is limited. Read the comparable sales and the estimate's uncertainty together.
- Public records and an automated estimate cannot establish whether the home is defect-free, what the contract contains, or why the owner is selling.
Questions to take to the inspection
Use these with the agent and your independent advisers. An answer is something to verify, not a fact we have recorded.
- Which recent sales are most comparable to this home, and how do their size, condition and position differ?
- What repairs, alterations or water issues are documented, and what can an independent inspection verify?
- What do the strata records show about current levies, planned works, meeting decisions and unresolved defects?
The estimate is a model output. The records are evidence. Your inspection and document checks fill the gaps.
Is the asking price plausible?
This is a comparison with the evidence we hold, not a valuation or a recommended offer.
CONSERVATIVE
$1.23M
the calibrated floor
LIKELY FAIR RANGE
$1.23M–$1.53M
around $1.37M mid
STRETCH CAP
$1.53M
$1.73M on the wider 80% band
Confidence: Low — based on 47 comparable auction sales (13 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±11% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss
How this estimate was made
- Method: AI PropertyEye tree model · trained through 2026-09-15
- Inputs used for this home: no per-address records were available; this uses location and configuration only
- Comparable support: 47 sales in the wider suburb/type pool; 13 of this exact configuration
- When to be more cautious: Condition, aspect, renovation and the contract are not model inputs and can move the eventual sale price.
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1208/1 Scotsman St | 2 bd · 2 ba | $1.42M | Sept 2025 |
| 3/276 Bridge Rd | 2 bd · 1 ba | $1.08M | July 2025 |
| 608/2 Scotsman St | 2 bd · 2 ba | $1.82M | Mar 2025 |
| 702/119 Ross St | 2 bd · 2 ba | $1.9M | Feb 2025 |
Suburb risk flags
crime index: 100 — well above sydney average · 22 min walk to Rozelle Bay Light Rail · ~20 min light rail to the CBD · light rail ~every 6 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye tree model 2026-09-02-v7-price-model-v6-full-grid, trained through 2026-09-15 — trained on 169,861 published auction sales; priced per address where this home's own records reach the model (see "How this estimate was made"), otherwise at configuration level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Forest Lodge — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Evidence trail: tracked by our radar from portal listings, web-archive checks and published auction results — each entry dated
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
What changed recently?
- 22 Sept 2026 asking $1.6M
- 22 Sept 2026 listed by the agency (portal date)
- 29 Sept 2026 price cut $50k — to $1.55M
- 8 Oct 2026 price cut $50k — to $1.5M
- 16 Oct 2026 on market 23 days — portal listing date
What to inspect before you offer
- Condition, aspect, renovation and the contract — these can materially change price, and the estimate cannot see them.
- Building condition: public records cannot establish that a building is defect-free; inspect independently.
These are due-diligence prompts, not a verdict on this property.
⏱ Days on market — this campaign
23 days since our daily sweep first saw this listing.
The portal's own campaign may have started slightly earlier than our first sighting. Longer campaigns tend to mean more negotiating room — the board's "Longest listed" sort exists for exactly that reason.
Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Forest Lodge · postcode 2037
$898–$1250/wk is what 2-bed units in 2037 actually transact for (middle half of 83 bonds lodged, Q2 2026 · median $1140/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).
2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $580 → $835/wk · +7% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for units in 2037, all bedroom counts pooled.
Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Growth trend — Forest Lodge units at auction
Too few same-bed sales for a measured growth rate yet. Recent quarterly sold medians (all unit sizes — thin samples move these):
2024Q2 $815k (5) · 2024Q3 $659k (4) · 2024Q4 $1252k (4) · 2025Q2 $870k (3)
Suburb-level, from published auction results. No single building has enough sales for a block-level series, so this is the honest grain; sales-mix shifts move raw medians, and the measured rate (when shown) controls for bed count.
Agencies' own published sales nearby — Forest Lodge, around 2 beds
| Address | Sold | Price | Beds | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41 Ross Street | 7 Aug 2026 | $1,600,000 | 3 | Harris Partners |
| 33/150 Wigram Road | 18 Feb 2026 | $1,467,000 | 2 | Harris Partners |
| 13/150 Wigram Road | 28 Jan 2026 | $1,413,000 | 2 | Harris Partners |
| 11/150 Wigram Road | 13 Dec 2025 | $1,400,000 | 2 | Harris Partners |
| 179 Arundel Street | 8 Jan 2025 | $1,715,000 | 3 | Harris Partners |
Prices as published on the selling agency's own website (their sold pages) — includes private-treaty sales the auction results never see. Only sales the agency chose to publish a figure for appear here.
Similar properties — on the market now
$1,500,000
603/22 Scotsman Street
Forest Lodge
2 bed · 2 bath · 1 car
▼ Reduced 3.2% · $50k · 2 cuts
$1,500,000
308/136 Ross Street
Forest Lodge
2 bed · 2 bath · 1 car
▼ Reduced 6.3% · $100k · 7 days ago
$1,500,000
32/48 Wentworth Park Road
Glebe · 0.6 km away
2 bed · 2 bath · 2 car
$1,500,000
Level 22
Chippendale · 1.8 km away
2 bed · 2 bath · 2 car
$1,500,000
210/280 Jones Street
Pyrmont · 1.9 km away
3 bed · 2 bath · 2 car
New · 2 days ago
$1,500,000
20/10 Gow Street
Balmain · 2.6 km away
3 bed · 2 bath · 1 car
The 6 listings above are on the market now: same unit category, within 1 bedroom of 2, asking within 20% of this one, in Forest Lodge or a suburb whose centre is within 3 km — ordered by how close the asking price is. That is the whole rule: a filter, not a recommendation, and nothing here judges which home is better.
Construction risk — what no listing tells you
Building Commission NSW / Strata Community Association 2023 Strata Defects Survey: 53% of newly registered strata buildings reported at least one serious defect in common property (39% in the 2021 survey). Defects are common, not exceptional — and new does not mean safe (Opal Tower was under a year old).
Get an independent structural and strata inspection before you commit — the defect base rate makes it the single highest-value dollar in the purchase.
We cannot see inside a building — no one can from public records. This section states base rates and observable adjacency only, and will never call a building safe.
What's changing in Forest Lodge — recent local signals
2026-09-23 — Development site — listing's own words: "STCA" (14 Creek Street, Forest Lodge, NSW 2037) (listing rea-152426372 (rea), first seen 2026-09-23)
2026-09-15 — Development site — listing's own words: "STCA" (29A Charles Street, Forest Lodge, NSW 2037) (listing rea-152338312 (rea), first seen 2026-09-15)
Dated public signals compiled for this suburb — openings, closures, site sales and institutional moves. Facts with sources, not forecasts.
School catchments
Forest Lodge PS (primary) · SSC Blackwattle Bay (secondary)
7 primary schools within 2 km · ICSEA ~1111 — the socio-educational advantage of the school community (My School, national average ~1000): a demographic measure, never a results or quality score.
Suburb-centre approximation for Forest Lodge — addresses near a boundary can differ. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.
Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.