






Currently listed — $3,500,000
3 bed · 3 bath · 2 car · House
The Property Brief — what the evidence shows. You draw the conclusion.
Confidence: Low — based on 139 comparable auction sales (2 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±20% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · thin comparable support for this configuration — read the range as wider, not as a warning · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss
What we've tracked
- 18 Aug 2026 first tracked by our radar (the portal doesn't publish its list date)
- 26 Aug 2026 asking $3.5M
- 28 Aug 2026 on market 10+ days — first tracked by us, a lower bound
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Paine St | 3 bd · 1 ba | $2.32M | June 2025 |
| 37 Walsh Av | 3 bd · 1 ba | $2.3M | May 2025 |
| 52 Robey St | 3 bd · 2 ba | $2.1M | May 2025 |
| 195 Gale Rd | 3 bd · 2 ba | $2.89M | Apr 2025 |
| 47 Haig St | 3 bd · 2 ba | $2.76M | Apr 2025 |
Suburb risk flags
aircraft noise low · crime index: 52 — around sydney average · 37 min walk to Kingsford Light Rail · ~28 min light rail to the CBD · light rail ~every 8 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye price model 2026-08-11-v5 — trained on 146,492 published auction sales; configuration-level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Maroubra — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Evidence trail: tracked by our radar from portal listings, web-archive checks and published auction results — each entry dated
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
⏱ Days on market — this campaign
10 days since our daily sweep first saw this listing.
The portal's own campaign may have started slightly earlier than our first sighting. Longer campaigns tend to mean more negotiating room — the board's "Longest listed" sort exists for exactly that reason.
Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Maroubra · postcode 2035
$1300–$1598/wk is what 3-bed houses in 2035 actually transact for (middle half of 27 bonds lodged, Q2 2026 · median $1400/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).
2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $770 → $1350/wk · +10% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for houses in 2035, all bedroom counts pooled.
Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Development potential — how Randwick City Council treats the work you might do
Refuses 3.23% of the development applications it decides · off-street parking 5.36% (determinations to Nov 2023).
The full outlook — every category with confidence ranges, which plan elements come unstuck, and the heritage effect by category — is under Explore the area.
Similar properties — on the market now
The 6 listings above are on the market now: same house category, within 1 bedroom of 3, asking within 20% of this one, in Maroubra or a suburb whose centre is within 3 km — ordered by how close the asking price is. That is the whole rule: a filter, not a recommendation, and nothing here judges which home is better.
Planning & zoning — R3 Medium Density Residential
Townhouses, villas and low-rise units permitted — expect gradual medium-density infill.
Registered lots in Maroubra run 230–560 m² (middle 80% of 108 registered parcels). This one is 607 m² — above that range.
Whether a block this size can be subdivided or redeveloped is a separate question: minimum lot size, setbacks and the council's DCP controls decide it, and this page doesn't check them. One point per registered parcel, so a tower's parent lot counts once — not once per unit. Confirm the parcel and its controls with the council before you inspect.
Zone R3 (Medium Density Residential) under the RANDWICK LEP, as recorded against this property in the NSW Valuer General's valuation record — a guide, not a parcel-level legal check. Confirm the exact lot at the NSW Planning Portal.
Development outlook — how often Randwick City Council has refused this kind of work
| If you wanted to… | Refused | vs NSW | Applications decided |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alterations & additions | 2.33% (1.13–4.74%) | 0.9× (NSW 2.63%) | 7 refused of 300 |
| Off-street parking | 5.36% (1.84–14.61%) | 2.1× (NSW 2.58%) | 3 refused of 56 |
| Pool, deck or fence | 3.65% (1.57–8.26%) | 2.1× (NSW 1.73%) | 5 refused of 137 |
| Granny flat | too few to rate | — (NSW 4.45%) | 1 refused of 15 |
| Knock down & rebuild | 0% (0–6.02%) | — (NSW 11.55%) | 0 refused of 60 · 2 approved with conditions |
Across all application types Randwick City Council refused 3.23% (2.08–4.99%) of the 588 development applications it decided.
Where these applications come unstuck
The refusal rate above says how strict the council is. This says which part of a plan is exposed — measured across all 192,284 NSW development applications, not just this council. Each is an association: plenty of applications carrying these elements are approved, and nothing here is a verdict on a proposal you haven't made yet.
- Alterations & additions — a new vehicle crossing cut into the front boundary (refused 7.27% vs 2.59% for this kind of work generally — 2.8×, on 220 applications); excavation or a new lower level (refused 6.71% vs 2.54% for this kind of work generally — 2.64×, on 611 applications)
- Off-street parking — a new vehicle crossing cut into the front boundary (refused 8.45% vs 2.42% for this kind of work generally — 3.49×, on 284 applications)
- Pool, deck or fence — excavation or a new lower level (refused 6.22% vs 1.61% for this kind of work generally — 3.88×, on 659 applications); full demolition and rebuild (refused 4.97% vs 1.6% for this kind of work generally — 3.12×, on 965 applications)
- Knock down & rebuild — excavation or a new lower level (refused 25.78% vs 9.36% for this kind of work generally — 2.75×, on 256 applications); full demolition and rebuild (refused 19.91% vs 10.46% for this kind of work generally — 1.9×, on 221 applications)
Determinations lodged on the NSW Planning Portal up to Nov 2023 — the published dataset stops there, so this is a record of how the council has behaved, not a forecast and not a statement about any particular application. Rates cover development applications only; modifications and reviews of an earlier decision are excluded. A rate is shown only where at least 30 applications were decided — below that the counts are given instead, because a percentage from a handful of decisions is not a fact about a council. "Approved with conditions" is a consent, not a refusal, and is never counted as one.
Development applications — at & near this address
| Where | Proposal | Status | Outcome | Est. cost | Lodged |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ~149 m · 53 New Orleans Crescent Maroubra 2035 | Dwelling House, Alterations Or Additions To An Existing Building Or Structure, Erection Of A New Structure | Determined | not on record | $199k | 2025-10-09 |
Development application data © NSW Department of Planning and Environment, used under CC BY 4.0. Matched at this exact address or within ~150 m of its geocoded point — proximity evidence, not a parcel-level check. Lodged means proposed, not approved or built. Outcome comes from a separate NSW dataset that stops in Nov 2023: applications determined after that, or still undetermined, read “not on record” — which means we don't know, never that it was refused. “Status” is the council's own workflow state and “Determined” on its own does not say which way it went. Verify any application on the NSW Planning Portal.
What's changing in Maroubra — recent local signals
2025-12-03 — Education new — 29 SNAPE STREET MAROUBRA 2035 ($420k) (institutional-signals.json (PAN-595449, OnlineDA))
2025-11-05 — Aged care / seniors new — 481 MALABAR ROAD MAROUBRA 2035 ($186634k) (institutional-signals.json (PAN-585507, OnlineDA))
2025-09-16 — Health invest — 1 311-313 MALABAR ROAD MAROUBRA 2035 ($541k) (institutional-signals.json (PAN-571781, OnlineDA))
Dated public signals compiled for this suburb — openings, closures, site sales and institutional moves. Facts with sources, not forecasts.
School catchments
Maroubra Bay PS (primary) · Sth Sydney HS (secondary)
5 primary schools within 2 km · ICSEA ~1051 — the socio-educational advantage of the school community (My School, national average ~1000): a demographic measure, never a results or quality score.
NSW DoE intake zones at this address's geocoded point — tighter than a suburb-level guess, but geocodes carry a few metres of error and boundaries change with reviews. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.
Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.