The listing we observed
4 bedrooms · House
Listing details describe the advertised home. They do not verify its condition or approved use.
Shaun Stoker · last observed 18 Oct 2026← swipe · 10 photos
Currently listed ▲ Raised 7.2% · $195k · 5 days ago
4 bed · 3 bath · 2 car · House · 213 m² land
Asking price RAISED 7.2% ($195k, from $2,700,000 to $2,895,000) 5 days ago. A demand signal at this address: expect competition.
Your buyer evidence guide
Understand the home before the offer.
The useful records, what they mean, and the questions they leave open. Start here, then explore the evidence below.
How much price evidence fits
111 sales in the wider suburb/type pool
The wider pool is not a set of identical homes. Bedroom count, condition and location within the suburb affect comparability.
Published auction evidence · model trained through 2026-09-15What deserves a closer look
- price raised $195k — to $2.9M
- auction: Passed in (Ray White Erskineville | Alexandria | Glebe | Surry Hills)
- asking $2.7M
These are recorded events, not evidence of the seller's motivation.
What we still cannot tell you
- No settled-sale history is available in this page's records. This does not mean the home has never sold.
- Direct price support is limited. Read the comparable sales and the estimate's uncertainty together.
- Public records and an automated estimate cannot establish whether the home is defect-free, what the contract contains, or why the owner is selling.
Questions to take to the inspection
Use these with the agent and your independent advisers. An answer is something to verify, not a fact we have recorded.
- Which recent sales are most comparable to this home, and how do their size, condition and position differ?
- What repairs, alterations or water issues are documented, and what can an independent inspection verify?
The estimate is a model output. The records are evidence. Your inspection and document checks fill the gaps.
Is the asking price plausible?
This is a comparison with the evidence we hold, not a valuation or a recommended offer.
CONSERVATIVE
$3.05M
the calibrated floor
LIKELY FAIR RANGE
$3.05M–$4.16M
around $3.57M mid
STRETCH CAP
$4.16M
$5.06M on the wider 80% band
Confidence: Low — based on 111 comparable auction sales (1 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±16% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · priced from this property's own records: block size, land value · thin comparable support for this configuration — read the range as wider, not as a warning · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss
How this estimate was made
- Method: AI PropertyEye tree model · trained through 2026-09-15
- Inputs used for this home: priced from this property's own records: block size, land value
- Comparable support: 111 sales in the wider suburb/type pool; 1 of this exact configuration
- When to be more cautious: This configuration has thin direct comparable support, so its range is deliberately wider.
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 Kingsclear Rd | 4 bd · 2 ba | $2.73M | May 2025 |
| 137 Belmont St | 4 bd · 2 ba | $4.76M | Dec 2024 |
Suburb risk flags
flood exposure 38% of the suburb · bushfire exposure 0% · aircraft noise low · crime index: 100 — well above sydney average · 11 min walk to Erskineville · ~7 min train to the CBD · trains ~every 8 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye tree model 2026-09-02-v7-price-model-v6-full-grid, trained through 2026-09-15 — trained on 169,861 published auction sales; priced per address where this home's own records reach the model (see "How this estimate was made"), otherwise at configuration level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Alexandria — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Evidence trail: tracked by our radar from portal listings, web-archive checks and published auction results — each entry dated
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
What changed recently?
- 27 Aug 2026 first tracked by our radar (the portal doesn't publish its list date)
- 19 Sept 2026 auction: Postponed (Ray White Erskineville | Alexandria | Glebe | Surry Hills)
- 21 Sept 2026 asking $2.7M
- 10 Oct 2026 auction: Passed in (Ray White Erskineville | Alexandria | Glebe | Surry Hills)
- 13 Oct 2026 price raised $195k — to $2.9M
- 19 Oct 2026 on market 53+ days — first tracked by us, a lower bound
What to inspect before you offer
- Condition, aspect, renovation and the contract — these can materially change price, and the estimate cannot see them.
These are due-diligence prompts, not a verdict on this property.
Days on market — this campaign
53 days since our daily sweep first saw this listing.
The portal's own campaign may have started slightly earlier than our first sighting. Longer campaigns tend to mean more negotiating room — the board's "Longest listed" sort exists for exactly that reason.
Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Alexandria · postcode 2015
$1500–$1870/wk is what 4-bed houses in 2015 actually transact for (middle half of 25 bonds lodged, last 12 mo · median $1680/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).
2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $768 → $1100/wk · +6% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for houses in 2015, all bedroom counts pooled.
Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Land — for a house, the land is the asset
213 m²
A house's size is its land. An apartment's advertised "size" can include car space and balcony — the two are never comparable and this site never pools them. Lot details and planning controls sit under Explore the area.
Published auction results at this address
| Auction week | Result | Price | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | Passed in | withheld | Ray White Erskineville | Alexandria | Glebe | Surry Hills |
| 19 Sept 2026 | Postponed | withheld | Ray White Erskineville | Alexandria | Glebe | Surry Hills |
From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.
Agencies' own published sales nearby — Alexandria, around 4 beds
| Address | Sold | Price | Beds | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/1a Mandible Street | 14 Aug 2025 | $682,000 | — | Harris Partners |
| 18/101 Belmont Street | 6 Dec 2022 | $1,800,000 | 4 | Harris Partners |
Prices as published on the selling agency's own website (their sold pages) — includes private-treaty sales the auction results never see. Only sales the agency chose to publish a figure for appear here.
It passed in — what happens next — the question the listing stops at
Across Sydney, homes that passed in and later sold went for about 6% less than comparable homes that sold under the hammer.
Half sold within 33 days, 75% within three months.
Like-for-like within bedroom and property-type groups · 50 comparison groups across Sydney, sales settled in the last two years. Based on passed-in homes that later sold. Homes that never sold aren't in the figure, so read this as what a sale fetches — not what the home is worth. Passing in is a negotiating position, not a verdict — this is evidence about outcomes, never advice on what to offer.
What's changing in Alexandria — recent local signals
2026-10-06 — Sold in one line — listing's own words: "in one line" (20 Copeland St, Alexandria, NSW 2015) (listing rea-152545328 (rea), first seen 2026-10-06)
2026-08-26 — Development site — listing's own words: "STCA" (14 Dibbs Street, Alexandria, NSW 2015) (listing rea-152146384 (rea), first seen 2026-08-26)
2026-08-17 — Development site — listing's own words: "STCA" (78 Mitchell Road, Alexandria, NSW 2015) (listing rea-147573880 (rea), first seen 2026-08-17)
Dated public signals compiled for this suburb — openings, closures, site sales and institutional moves. Facts with sources, not forecasts.
School catchments
Gardeners Rd PS (primary) · J J Cahill MHS (secondary)
7 primary schools within 2 km · ICSEA ~1069 — the socio-educational advantage of the school community (My School, national average ~1000): a demographic measure, never a results or quality score.
Suburb-centre approximation for Alexandria — addresses near a boundary can differ. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.
Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.