The Property Brief — what the evidence shows. You draw the conclusion.
Confidence: Low — based on 51 comparable auction sales (0 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±21% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · thin comparable support for this configuration — read the range as wider, not as a warning · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Whitfield Av | 4 bd · 1 ba | $2.21M | Mar 2025 |
| 32 Cheviot St | 4 bd · 2 ba | $2.81M | Mar 2025 |
| 42 Woodlands Rd | 4 bd · 2 ba | $2.25M | Feb 2025 |
Suburb risk flags
crime index: 35 — below sydney average · trains ~every 4 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye price model 2026-08-11-v5 — trained on 146,492 published auction sales; configuration-level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Ashbury — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Ashbury · postcode 2193
$975–$1322/wk is what 4-bed houses in 2193 actually transact for (middle half of 20 bonds lodged, last 12 mo · median $1225/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).
2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $650 → $900/wk · +3% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for houses in 2193, all bedroom counts pooled.
Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Development potential — how Canterbury-Bankstown Council treats the work you might do
Refuses 11.6% of the development applications it decides · off-street parking 11.19% (determinations to Nov 2023).
The full outlook — every category with confidence ranges, which plan elements come unstuck, and the heritage effect by category — is under Explore the area.
Published auction results at this address
| Auction week | Result | Price | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 July 2026 | Withdrawn | withheld | Richard Matthews Real Estate |
From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.
↩ Withdrawn from auction — what happens next
Withdrawn from auction isn't the end of a sale — of withdrawn Sydney homes that went on to sell, half sold within 65 days.
63% sold within three months of the scheduled auction.
1,535 withdrawn-then-sold homes across Sydney. We don't publish a price figure for withdrawn homes: the measured gap is too unstable to stand behind, and a number we can't defend is worse than none. Based on withdrawn homes that later sold. Homes that never sold aren't in the figure — withdrawal sometimes means a private deal was already done, and sometimes means the listing simply ended.
Planning & zoning — R2 Low Density Residential
Houses and dual occupancies. A protected low-rise street — little chance of towers next door.
Heritage conservation area — Ashbury Conservation Area. The property sits in a heritage conservation area — the streetscape is protected, so visible/external changes are controlled. It's area-wide, not this building specifically; it tends to preserve character and value.
Height limit 8.5m (≈ 2 storeys) — the current legal ceiling for new building at this point under the LEP. Any proposal above it needs a variation or a rezoning — the kind of change the fast-track pipeline tracks.
Registered lot C/DP14589 — The registered plan lot at this address's geocoded point (NSW cadastre). On semis, duplexes and recent subdivisions the registered lot can be the parent parcel — the portal's advertised land size can differ legitimately.
Zone R2 (Low Density Residential) under the CANTERBURY-BANKSTOWN LEP · heritage from the NSW Heritage Map layer, as recorded against this property in the NSW Valuer General's valuation record — a guide, not a parcel-level legal check. Confirm the exact lot at the NSW Planning Portal.
Development outlook — how often Canterbury-Bankstown Council has refused this kind of work
| If you wanted to… | Refused | vs NSW | Applications decided |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alterations & additions | 8.76% (6.52–11.67%) | 3.3× (NSW 2.63%) | 41 refused of 468 · 6 approved with conditions |
| Off-street parking | 11.19% (7.01–17.4%) | 4.3× (NSW 2.58%) | 16 refused of 143 · 3 approved with conditions |
| Pool, deck or fence | 9.42% (7.04–12.48%) | 5.4× (NSW 1.73%) | 42 refused of 446 · 4 approved with conditions |
| Granny flat | 10.76% (7.94–14.43%) | 2.4× (NSW 4.45%) | 38 refused of 353 · 13 approved with conditions |
| Knock down & rebuild | 9.86% (4.86–18.98%) | 0.9× (NSW 11.55%) | 7 refused of 71 · 2 approved with conditions |
Across all application types Canterbury-Bankstown Council refused 11.6% (10.37–12.95%) of the 2,380 development applications it decided.
Where these applications come unstuck
The refusal rate above says how strict the council is. This says which part of a plan is exposed — measured across all 192,284 NSW development applications, not just this council. Each is an association: plenty of applications carrying these elements are approved, and nothing here is a verdict on a proposal you haven't made yet.
- Alterations & additions — a new vehicle crossing cut into the front boundary (refused 7.27% vs 2.59% for this kind of work generally — 2.8×, on 220 applications); excavation or a new lower level (refused 6.71% vs 2.54% for this kind of work generally — 2.64×, on 611 applications)
- Off-street parking — a new vehicle crossing cut into the front boundary (refused 8.45% vs 2.42% for this kind of work generally — 3.49×, on 284 applications)
- Pool, deck or fence — excavation or a new lower level (refused 6.22% vs 1.61% for this kind of work generally — 3.88×, on 659 applications); full demolition and rebuild (refused 4.97% vs 1.6% for this kind of work generally — 3.12×, on 965 applications)
- Knock down & rebuild — excavation or a new lower level (refused 25.78% vs 9.36% for this kind of work generally — 2.75×, on 256 applications); full demolition and rebuild (refused 19.91% vs 10.46% for this kind of work generally — 1.9×, on 221 applications)
Because this address sits in a heritage listing
Heritage does not make everything harder — it depends entirely on what you want to do, and for some work it makes approval more likely. Measured across NSW by category:
- Alterations & additions — heritage listing raises the refusal rate: 4.39% on heritage-affected land vs 2.27% elsewhere
- Off-street parking — heritage listing raises the refusal rate: 7.37% on heritage-affected land vs 2.29% elsewhere
- Pool, deck or fence — heritage listing raises the refusal rate: 4.56% on heritage-affected land vs 1.62% elsewhere
- Granny flat — heritage listing raises the refusal rate: 9.63% on heritage-affected land vs 4.4% elsewhere
- Knock down & rebuild — heritage listing lowers the refusal rate: 7.1% on heritage-affected land vs 12.68% elsewhere — applications here are typically pre-advised and conservative
These are NSW-wide rates for heritage-affected applications, not Canterbury-Bankstown Council-specific, and they describe applications rather than this property. The zoning section above records the actual listing at this address.
Determinations lodged on the NSW Planning Portal up to Nov 2023 — the published dataset stops there, so this is a record of how the council has behaved, not a forecast and not a statement about any particular application. Rates cover development applications only; modifications and reviews of an earlier decision are excluded. A rate is shown only where at least 30 applications were decided — below that the counts are given instead, because a percentage from a handful of decisions is not a fact about a council. "Approved with conditions" is a consent, not a refusal, and is never counted as one.
Development applications — at & near this address
| Where | Proposal | Status | Outcome | Est. cost | Lodged |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ~34 m · 72 Roslyn Street Ashbury 2193 | Demolition, Dwelling House, Alterations Or Additions To An Existing Building Or Structure · 1 new dwelling | Determined | not on record | $473k | 2025-10-13 |
| ~71 m · 65 Hay St Ashbury | Pools / Decks / Fencing, Balconies, Decks, Patios, Terraces Or Verandahs | Withdrawn | not on record | $270k | 2021-01-11 |
| ~138 m · 72 Forbes Street Croydon Park 2133 | Other | Determined | Approved | $30k | 2020-09-09 |
| ~147 m · 63 Hay Street Croydon Park 2133 | Dwelling House, Alterations Or Additions To An Existing Building Or Structure · 1 new dwelling | Under Assessment | not on record | $396k | 2026-06-17 |
Development application data © NSW Department of Planning and Environment, used under CC BY 4.0. Matched at this exact address or within ~150 m of its geocoded point — proximity evidence, not a parcel-level check. Lodged means proposed, not approved or built. Outcome comes from a separate NSW dataset that stops in Nov 2023: applications determined after that, or still undetermined, read “not on record” — which means we don't know, never that it was refused. “Status” is the council's own workflow state and “Determined” on its own does not say which way it went. Verify any application on the NSW Planning Portal.
School catchments
Ashbury PS (primary) · Dulwich HS of Visual Arts and Design (secondary)
7 primary schools within 2 km · ICSEA ~1073 — the socio-educational advantage of the school community (My School, national average ~1000): a demographic measure, never a results or quality score.
NSW DoE intake zones at this address's geocoded point — tighter than a suburb-level guess, but geocodes carry a few metres of error and boundaries change with reviews. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
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Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.