The Property Brief — what the evidence shows. You draw the conclusion.
Confidence: Low — based on 15 comparable auction sales (5 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±11% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss
Suburb risk flags
crime index: 15 — below sydney average · ferries ~every 17 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye price model 2026-08-11-v5 — trained on 146,492 published auction sales; configuration-level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Avalon Beach · postcode 2107
$712–$908/wk is what 2-bed units in 2107 actually transact for (middle half of 31 bonds lodged, last 12 mo · median $800/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).
2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $522 → $765/wk · +6% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for units in 2107, all bedroom counts pooled.
Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Growth trend — Avalon Beach units at auction
Not enough Avalon Beach unit auctions on record to show a trend — this fills in as the archive grows.
Suburb-level, from published auction results. No single building has enough sales for a block-level series, so this is the honest grain; sales-mix shifts move raw medians, and the measured rate (when shown) controls for bed count.
Published auction results at this address
| Auction week | Result | Price | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 July 2026 | Postponed | withheld | SHORES |
From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.
Construction risk — what no listing tells you
Building Commission NSW / Strata Community Association 2023 Strata Defects Survey: 53% of newly registered strata buildings reported at least one serious defect in common property (39% in the 2021 survey). Defects are common, not exceptional — and new does not mean safe (Opal Tower was under a year old).
Get an independent structural and strata inspection before you commit — the defect base rate makes it the single highest-value dollar in the purchase.
We cannot see inside a building — no one can from public records. This section states base rates and observable adjacency only, and will never call a building safe.
The building — its registered strata scheme
Strata plan SP3095 registered 1968 — the building is at least 58 years old · 27 lots in the scheme.
Registration is an age floor, not a build date — a converted building is older than its strata plan. Scheme records from the NSW Strata Hub. © State of New South Wales (Spatial Services, a business unit of the Department of Customer Service NSW). For current information go to spatial.nsw.gov.au.
What's changing in Avalon Beach — recent local signals
2026-05-06 — Aged care / seniors new — 1 CATALINA CRESCENT AVALON BEACH 2107 ($5865k) (institutional-signals.json (PAN-635216, OnlineDA))
2026-04-15 — Aged care / seniors new — 73 CENTRAL ROAD AVALON BEACH 2107 ($2942k) (institutional-signals.json (PAN-629878, OnlineDA))
2025-09-18 — Aged care / seniors new — 84 AVALON PARADE AVALON BEACH 2107 ($3721k) (institutional-signals.json (PAN-571964, OnlineDA))
Dated public signals compiled for this suburb — openings, closures, site sales and institutional moves. Facts with sources, not forecasts.
School catchments
Avalon PS (primary) · Barrenjoey HS (secondary)
1 primary school within 2 km · ICSEA ~1099 — the socio-educational advantage of the school community (My School, national average ~1000): a demographic measure, never a results or quality score.
Suburb-centre approximation for Avalon Beach — addresses near a boundary can differ. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.
Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.