The Property Brief — what the evidence shows. You draw the conclusion.
Confidence: Low — based on 78 comparable auction sales (6 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±11% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Chapman St | 3 bd · 1 ba | $480k | Sept 2025 |
| 49 Turf St | 3 bd · 1 ba | $510k | Sept 2025 |
| 225 Arthur St | 3 bd · 1 ba | $460k | June 2025 |
| 230 Hoof St | 3 bd · 1 ba | $433k | May 2025 |
Suburb risk flags
crime index: 100 — well above sydney average
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye price model 2026-08-11-v5 — trained on 146,492 published auction sales; configuration-level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Grafton — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Grafton · postcode 2460
$475–$555/wk is what 3-bed houses in 2460 actually transact for (middle half of 63 bonds lodged, Q2 2026 · median $520/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).
2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $360 → $520/wk · +6% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for houses in 2460, all bedroom counts pooled.
Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Development potential — how Clarence Valley Council treats the work you might do
Refuses 0.28% of the development applications it decides · off-street parking 0% (determinations to Nov 2023).
The full outlook — every category with confidence ranges, which plan elements come unstuck, and the heritage effect by category — is under Explore the area.
Published auction results at this address
| Auction week | Result | Price | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 July 2026 | Sold | $597,000 | Ray White TKG |
From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.
Sale history — the official settled-sale record at this address
| Exchanged | Price | Change since prior sale |
|---|---|---|
| 22 Dec 1992 | $89,000 | — |
| 10 Aug 2022 | $560,000 | +529.2% over 29.6 yrs |
| 8 July 2026 | $597,000 | +6.6% over 3.9 yrs |
Settled-sale records from the NSW Valuer General's Property Sales Information. Dates are contract (exchange) dates; sales appear only once lodged, so the most recent months are incomplete and revise upward — never read the latest month as final. Two entries on one date are usually a single transaction recorded across parts. © State of New South Wales (Valuation NSW).
Planning & zoning — R1 General Residential
A mix of housing types — houses through to apartments — permitted.
Height limit 9m (≈ 2 storeys) — the current legal ceiling for new building at this point under the LEP. Any proposal above it needs a variation or a rezoning — the kind of change the fast-track pipeline tracks.
Zone R1 (General Residential) under the CLARENCE VALLEY LEP, from the NSW ePlanning layers at this address's geocoded point — a guide, not a parcel-level legal check. Confirm the exact lot at the NSW Planning Portal.
Development outlook — how often Clarence Valley Council has refused this kind of work
| If you wanted to… | Refused | vs NSW | Applications decided |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alterations & additions | 0% (0–1.38%) | — (NSW 2.63%) | 0 refused of 275 · 2 approved with conditions |
| Off-street parking | 0% (0–1.97%) | — (NSW 2.58%) | 0 refused of 191 |
| Pool, deck or fence | 0% (0–0.87%) | — (NSW 1.73%) | 0 refused of 436 |
| Granny flat | 0% (0–4.94%) | — (NSW 4.45%) | 0 refused of 74 |
| Knock down & rebuild | too few to rate | — (NSW 11.55%) | 0 refused of 8 |
Across all application types Clarence Valley Council refused 0.28% (0.13–0.61%) of the 2,146 development applications it decided.
Where these applications come unstuck
The refusal rate above says how strict the council is. This says which part of a plan is exposed — measured across all 192,284 NSW development applications, not just this council. Each is an association: plenty of applications carrying these elements are approved, and nothing here is a verdict on a proposal you haven't made yet.
- Alterations & additions — a new vehicle crossing cut into the front boundary (refused 7.27% vs 2.59% for this kind of work generally — 2.8×, on 220 applications); excavation or a new lower level (refused 6.71% vs 2.54% for this kind of work generally — 2.64×, on 611 applications)
- Off-street parking — a new vehicle crossing cut into the front boundary (refused 8.45% vs 2.42% for this kind of work generally — 3.49×, on 284 applications)
- Pool, deck or fence — excavation or a new lower level (refused 6.22% vs 1.61% for this kind of work generally — 3.88×, on 659 applications); full demolition and rebuild (refused 4.97% vs 1.6% for this kind of work generally — 3.12×, on 965 applications)
- Knock down & rebuild — excavation or a new lower level (refused 25.78% vs 9.36% for this kind of work generally — 2.75×, on 256 applications); full demolition and rebuild (refused 19.91% vs 10.46% for this kind of work generally — 1.9×, on 221 applications)
Determinations lodged on the NSW Planning Portal up to Nov 2023 — the published dataset stops there, so this is a record of how the council has behaved, not a forecast and not a statement about any particular application. Rates cover development applications only; modifications and reviews of an earlier decision are excluded. A rate is shown only where at least 30 applications were decided — below that the counts are given instead, because a percentage from a handful of decisions is not a fact about a council. "Approved with conditions" is a consent, not a refusal, and is never counted as one.
School catchments
Grafton PS (primary) · Grafton HS (secondary)
NSW DoE intake zones at this address's geocoded point — tighter than a suburb-level guess, but geocodes carry a few metres of error and boundaries change with reviews. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.
Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.