The Property Brief — what the evidence shows. You draw the conclusion.
Confidence: Low — based on 43 comparable auction sales (12 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±11% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4/1 Bembridge St | 2 bd · 2 ba | $970k | May 2025 |
| 306/77 Edward St | 2 bd · 2 ba | $810k | May 2025 |
| 4/2-4 Mill St | 2 bd · 1 ba | $712k | Nov 2024 |
Suburb risk flags
crime index: 22 — below sydney average · trains ~every 10 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye price model 2026-08-11-v5 — trained on 146,492 published auction sales; configuration-level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Carlton — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Carlton · postcode 2218
$640–$720/wk is what 2-bed units in 2218 actually transact for (middle half of 73 bonds lodged, Q2 2026 · median $680/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).
2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $460 → $680/wk · +2% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for units in 2218, all bedroom counts pooled.
Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Growth trend — Carlton units at auction
Too few same-bed sales for a measured growth rate yet. Recent quarterly sold medians (all unit sizes — thin samples move these):
2022Q3 $750k (4) · 2024Q3 $734k (6) · 2024Q4 $712k (3) · 2025Q2 $925k (5)
Suburb-level, from published auction results. No single building has enough sales for a block-level series, so this is the honest grain; sales-mix shifts move raw medians, and the measured rate (when shown) controls for bed count.
Published auction results at this address
| Auction week | Result | Price | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2026 | Sold prior | $980,000 | Belle Property St George |
From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.
Construction risk — what no listing tells you
Building Commission NSW / Strata Community Association 2023 Strata Defects Survey: 53% of newly registered strata buildings reported at least one serious defect in common property (39% in the 2021 survey). Defects are common, not exceptional — and new does not mean safe (Opal Tower was under a year old).
Get an independent structural and strata inspection before you commit — the defect base rate makes it the single highest-value dollar in the purchase.
We cannot see inside a building — no one can from public records. This section states base rates and observable adjacency only, and will never call a building safe.
The building — its registered strata scheme
Strata plan SP75204 registered 2005 — the building is at least 21 years old · 12 lots in the scheme.
Registration is an age floor, not a build date — a converted building is older than its strata plan. Scheme records from the NSW Strata Hub. © State of New South Wales (Spatial Services, a business unit of the Department of Customer Service NSW). For current information go to spatial.nsw.gov.au.
What's changing in Carlton — recent local signals
2026-05-12 — Childcare invest — 255 PRINCES HIGHWAY CARLTON 2218 ($2436k) (institutional-signals.json (PAN-636493, OnlineDA))
Dated public signals compiled for this suburb — openings, closures, site sales and institutional moves. Facts with sources, not forecasts.
School catchments
Carlton SPS (primary) · Bayside HS (secondary)
5 primary schools within 2 km · ICSEA ~1061 — the socio-educational advantage of the school community (My School, national average ~1000): a demographic measure, never a results or quality score.
Suburb-centre approximation for Carlton — addresses near a boundary can differ. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.
Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.