📋 The Property Brief — what the evidence shows. You draw the conclusion.
CONSERVATIVE
$1.12M
the calibrated floor
LIKELY FAIR RANGE
$1.12M–$1.39M
around $1.25M mid
STRETCH CAP
$1.39M
$1.56M on the wider 80% band
Confidence: Medium — based on 60 comparable auction sales · model runs ±11% for this configuration · the model's typical miss is ~14% against published results — every hit and miss
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Bay St | 4 bd · 2 ba | $1.26M | June 2025 |
| 15 Wollomi Av | 4 bd · 2 ba | $1.73M | June 2025 |
| 33 Christmas Bush Av | 4 bd · 2 ba | $2.5M | Apr 2025 |
| 2 Galoola Dr | 4 bd · 1 ba | $726k | Apr 2025 |
| 95 Government Rd | 4 bd · 3 ba | $1.38M | Apr 2025 |
| 15A Primary Cr | 3 bd · 2 ba | $950k | July 2025 |
Suburb risk flags
crime index: 48 — around sydney average
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye price model 2026-07-09-v3c — trained on 138,399 published auction sales; configuration-level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Nelson Bay — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
🔨 Published auction results at this address
| Auction week | Result | Price | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Aug 2026 | Postponed | withheld | PRD Real Estate Port Stephens |
From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint leverage score, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.
Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.