The Property Brief — what the evidence shows. You draw the conclusion.
Confidence: Low — based on 249 comparable auction sales (12 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±11% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 501/2 Pearl St | 2 bd · 1 ba | $880k | Sept 2025 |
| 19/127 Railway Pde | 2 bd · 1 ba | $1.28M | July 2025 |
| 722/5 Hadfields St | 2 bd · 2 ba | $1.23M | May 2025 |
| 601/2 Pearl St | 2 bd · 1 ba | $1.21M | May 2025 |
Suburb risk flags
crime index: 50 — around sydney average · 2 min walk to Erskineville · ~7 min train to the CBD · trains ~every 9 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye price model 2026-08-11-v5 — trained on 146,492 published auction sales; configuration-level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Erskineville — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Erskineville · postcode 2043
$1000–$1200/wk is what 2-bed units in 2043 actually transact for (middle half of 54 bonds lodged, Q2 2026 · median $1100/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).
2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $660 → $900/wk · +4% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for units in 2043, all bedroom counts pooled.
Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Growth trend — Erskineville units at auction
Measured like-for-like growth ≈ 4.0%/yr — 2-bed sold-price medians across 17 quarters (105 sales).
Suburb-level, from published auction results. No single building has enough sales for a block-level series, so this is the honest grain; sales-mix shifts move raw medians, and the measured rate (when shown) controls for bed count.
Published auction results at this address
| Auction week | Result | Price | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 July 2026 | Sold | $1,425,000 | Park Properties Erskineville | Alexandria |
| 4 July 2026 | Postponed | withheld | Park Properties Erskineville | Alexandria |
From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.
Agencies' own published sales nearby — Erskineville, around 2 beds
| Address | Sold | Price | Beds | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8503/177-219 Mitchell Road | 9 Mar 2026 | $965,000 | 2 | Harris Partners |
Prices as published on the selling agency's own website (their sold pages) — includes private-treaty sales the auction results never see. Only sales the agency chose to publish a figure for appear here.
Planning & zoning — R1 General Residential
A mix of housing types — houses through to apartments — permitted.
Height limit 33m (≈ 10 storeys) — the current legal ceiling for new building at this point under the LEP. Any proposal above it needs a variation or a rezoning — the kind of change the fast-track pipeline tracks.
Floor space ratio 2.5:1 — the maximum gross floor area you can build is 2.5:1 times the site area.
Strata plan SP57306 — A strata-titled scheme — the parcel area is the WHOLE scheme's land, not this unit's. From the NSW cadastre at this address's geocoded point.
Zone R1 (General Residential) under the SYDNEY LEP, from the NSW ePlanning layers at this address's geocoded point — a guide, not a parcel-level legal check. Confirm the exact lot at the NSW Planning Portal.
Development applications — at & near this address
| Where | Proposal | Status | Outcome | Est. cost | Lodged |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ~120 m · 177-219 Mitchell Road Erskineville 2043 | Subdivision | Determined | not on record | — | 2025-10-16 |
| ~120 m · 177-219 Mitchell Road Erskineville 2043 | Change Of Use Of Land Or A Building Or The Classification Of A Building Under The Building Code Of Australia, Recreation Facility (Indoor) | Determined | not on record | $17k | 2026-02-20 |
Development application data © NSW Department of Planning and Environment, used under CC BY 4.0. Matched at this exact address or within ~150 m of its geocoded point — proximity evidence, not a parcel-level check. Lodged means proposed, not approved or built. Outcome comes from a separate NSW dataset that stops in Nov 2023: applications determined after that, or still undetermined, read “not on record” — which means we don't know, never that it was refused. “Status” is the council's own workflow state and “Determined” on its own does not say which way it went. Verify any application on the NSW Planning Portal.
Construction risk — what no listing tells you
Building Commission NSW / Strata Community Association 2023 Strata Defects Survey: 53% of newly registered strata buildings reported at least one serious defect in common property (39% in the 2021 survey). Defects are common, not exceptional — and new does not mean safe (Opal Tower was under a year old).
Get an independent structural and strata inspection before you commit — the defect base rate makes it the single highest-value dollar in the purchase.
We cannot see inside a building — no one can from public records. This section states base rates and observable adjacency only, and will never call a building safe.
School catchments
Erskineville PS (primary) · Alexandria Park CS (secondary)
6 primary schools within 2 km · ICSEA ~1085 — the socio-educational advantage of the school community (My School, national average ~1000): a demographic measure, never a results or quality score.
NSW DoE intake zones at this address's geocoded point — tighter than a suburb-level guess, but geocodes carry a few metres of error and boundaries change with reviews. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Green space nearby
Protected public recreation land within 100 m
Land zoned RE1 under the local environmental plan — reserved for public recreation, which protects it from being built over. The zoning doesn't say what's on it or how usable it is, and this layer doesn't carry park names.
Privately-zoned recreation land (RE2 — typically golf courses or club grounds) within 2000 m. Private land: green outlook, not public open space.
Straight-line distance, not walking distance. NSW ePlanning planning layers (Land Zoning), CC BY. Distances are ladder buckets measured at the address's geocoded point.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.
Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.