13 Watkin Av · Earlwood NSW 2206

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Currently listed — $2,500,000

3 bed · 2 bath · 1 car · House · 663 m² land

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Your buyer evidence guide

Understand the home before the offer.

The useful records, what they mean, and the questions they leave open. Start here, then explore the evidence below.

The listing we observed

3 bedrooms · House

Listing details describe the advertised home. They do not verify its condition or approved use.

Kieran Gianoudis · last observed 23 Oct 2026

How much price evidence fits

311 sales in the wider suburb/type pool

The wider pool is not a set of identical homes. Bedroom count, condition and location within the suburb affect comparability.

Published auction evidence · model trained through 2026-10-23

Planning activity nearby

6 recorded applications at or near this address

An application is not an approval or a promise that building work will happen. Location and stage matter.

NSW Planning Portal · individual records in Explore the area

What deserves a closer look

  • auction: Passed in (Ray White Earlwood l Wolli Creek)
  • asking $2.5M
  • first tracked by our radar (the portal doesn't publish its list date)

These are recorded events, not evidence of the seller's motivation.

What we still cannot tell you

  • No settled-sale history is available in this page's records. This does not mean the home has never sold.
  • Direct price support is limited. Read the comparable sales and the estimate's uncertainty together.
  • Public records and an automated estimate cannot establish whether the home is defect-free, what the contract contains, or why the owner is selling.
Questions to take to the inspection

Use these with the agent and your independent advisers. An answer is something to verify, not a fact we have recorded.

  1. Which nearby applications affect this home, and what stage has each actually reached?
  2. Which recent sales are most comparable to this home, and how do their size, condition and position differ?
  3. What repairs, alterations or water issues are documented, and what can an independent inspection verify?
  4. Do the planning and heritage records match this exact lot, and what approvals exist for alterations?

The estimate is a model output. The records are evidence. Your inspection and document checks fill the gaps.

Is the asking price plausible?

This is a comparison with the evidence we hold, not a valuation or a recommended offer.

CONSERVATIVE
$2.14M
the calibrated floor
LIKELY FAIR RANGE
$2.14M–$2.67M
around $2.39M mid
STRETCH CAP
$2.67M
$3.11M on the wider 80% band

Confidence: Low — based on 311 comparable auction sales (13 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±11% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · priced from this property's own records: block size, land value · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss

How this estimate was made
  • Method: AI PropertyEye tree model · trained through 2026-10-23
  • Inputs used for this home: priced from this property's own records: block size, land value
  • Comparable support: 311 sales in the wider suburb/type pool; 13 of this exact configuration
  • When to be more cautious: Condition, aspect, renovation and the contract are not model inputs and can move the eventual sale price.

Comparable auction sales

AddressConfigSoldWhen
4 Frost St3 bd · 1 ba$1.89MSept 2025
2 Caroline St3 bd · 2 ba$1.89MJuly 2025
1 Lanark Av3 bd · 2 ba$2.42MJune 2025
16 Francis St3 bd · 2 ba$2.35MJune 2025

Suburb risk flags

aircraft noise moderate · crime index: 23 — below sydney average · 17 min walk to Canterbury Metro · ~18 min metro to the CBD · trains ~every 15 min at peak

Where every number comes from
  • Fair value: AI PropertyEye tree model 2026-09-02-v7-price-model-v6-full-grid, trained through 2026-10-23 — trained on 172,805 published auction sales; priced per address where this home's own records reach the model (see "How this estimate was made"), otherwise at configuration level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
  • Comps: published Domain auction results for Earlwood — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
  • Evidence trail: tracked by our radar from portal listings, web-archive checks and published auction results — each entry dated
  • Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment

What changed recently?

  • 19 Aug 2026 first tracked by our radar (the portal doesn't publish its list date)
  • 28 Aug 2026 asking $2.5M
  • 5 Sept 2026 auction: Passed in (Ray White Earlwood l Wolli Creek)
  • 24 Oct 2026 on market 66+ days — first tracked by us, a lower bound

What to inspect before you offer

  • Condition, aspect, renovation and the contract — these can materially change price, and the estimate cannot see them.
  • 6 development applications are recorded at or near this address — check the source records and current status.
  • Planning controls and heritage status — confirm the exact lot, not just the address-level guide, before relying on development potential.

These are due-diligence prompts, not a verdict on this property.

Days on market — this campaign

66 days since our daily sweep first saw this listing.

The portal's own campaign may have started slightly earlier than our first sighting. Longer campaigns tend to mean more negotiating room — the board's "Longest listed" sort exists for exactly that reason.

Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Earlwood · postcode 2206

$870–$1200/wk is what 3-bed houses in 2206 actually transact for (middle half of 33 bonds lodged, Q2 2026 · median $995/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).


2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $690 → $1000/wk · +5% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for houses in 2206, all bedroom counts pooled.

Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.

Land — for a house, the land is the asset

663 m²

A house's size is its land. An apartment's advertised "size" can include car space and balcony — the two are never comparable and this site never pools them. Lot details and planning controls sit under Explore the area.

Development potential — how Canterbury-Bankstown Council treats the work you might do

Refuses 11.6% of the development applications it decides · off-street parking 11.19% (determinations to Nov 2023).

The full outlook — every category with confidence ranges, which plan elements come unstuck, and the heritage effect by category — is under Explore the area.

Published auction results at this address

Auction weekResultPriceAgency
5 Sept 2026Passed inwithheldRay White Earlwood l Wolli Creek

From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.

Similar properties — on the market now

The 6 listings above are on the market now: same house category, within 1 bedroom of 3, asking within 20% of this one, in Earlwood or a suburb whose centre is within 3 km — ordered by how close the asking price is. That is the whole rule: a filter, not a recommendation, and nothing here judges which home is better.

It passed in — what happens next — the question the listing stops at

Across Sydney, homes that passed in and later sold went for about 6% less than comparable homes that sold under the hammer.

Half sold within 33 days, 75% within three months.

Like-for-like within bedroom and property-type groups · 49 comparison groups across Sydney, sales settled in the last two years. Based on passed-in homes that later sold. Homes that never sold aren't in the figure, so read this as what a sale fetches — not what the home is worth. Passing in is a negotiating position, not a verdict — this is evidence about outcomes, never advice on what to offer.

Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?

Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.

Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.