









Currently listed — $2,500,000
3 bed · 2 bath · 1 car · House · 664 m² land
The Property Brief — what the evidence shows. You draw the conclusion.
Confidence: Low — based on 311 comparable auction sales (13 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±12% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · adjusted for this block's land size · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss
What we've tracked
- 21 Aug 2026 first tracked by our radar (the portal doesn't publish its list date)
- 24 Aug 2026 asking $2.5M
- 28 Aug 2026 on market 7+ days — first tracked by us, a lower bound
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Frost St | 3 bd · 1 ba | $1.89M | Sept 2025 |
| 2 Caroline St | 3 bd · 2 ba | $1.89M | July 2025 |
| 1 Lanark Av | 3 bd · 2 ba | $2.42M | June 2025 |
| 16 Francis St | 3 bd · 2 ba | $2.35M | June 2025 |
Suburb risk flags
aircraft noise moderate · crime index: 23 — below sydney average · 17 min walk to Canterbury Metro · ~18 min metro to the CBD · trains ~every 15 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye price model 2026-08-11-v5 — trained on 146,492 published auction sales; configuration-level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Earlwood — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Evidence trail: tracked by our radar from portal listings, web-archive checks and published auction results — each entry dated
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
⏱ Days on market — this campaign
7 days since our daily sweep first saw this listing.
The portal's own campaign may have started slightly earlier than our first sighting. Longer campaigns tend to mean more negotiating room — the board's "Longest listed" sort exists for exactly that reason.
Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Earlwood · postcode 2206
$870–$1200/wk is what 3-bed houses in 2206 actually transact for (middle half of 33 bonds lodged, Q2 2026 · median $995/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).
2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $690 → $1000/wk · +5% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for houses in 2206, all bedroom counts pooled.
Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Land — for a house, the land is the asset
664 m²
A house's size is its land. An apartment's advertised "size" can include car space and balcony — the two are never comparable and this site never pools them. Lot details and planning controls sit under Explore the area.
Development potential — how Canterbury-Bankstown Council treats the work you might do
Refuses 11.6% of the development applications it decides · off-street parking 11.19% (determinations to Nov 2023).
The full outlook — every category with confidence ranges, which plan elements come unstuck, and the heritage effect by category — is under Explore the area.
Similar properties — on the market now
The 6 listings above are on the market now: same house category, within 1 bedroom of 3, asking within 20% of this one, in Earlwood or a suburb whose centre is within 3 km — ordered by how close the asking price is. That is the whole rule: a filter, not a recommendation, and nothing here judges which home is better.
Planning & zoning — R2 Low Density Residential
Houses and dual occupancies. A protected low-rise street — little chance of towers next door.
Zone R2 (Low Density Residential) under the CANTERBURY-BANKSTOWN LEP, from the NSW ePlanning layers at this address's geocoded point — a guide, not a parcel-level legal check. Confirm the exact lot at the NSW Planning Portal.
Development outlook — how often Canterbury-Bankstown Council has refused this kind of work
| If you wanted to… | Refused | vs NSW | Applications decided |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alterations & additions | 8.76% (6.52–11.67%) | 3.3× (NSW 2.63%) | 41 refused of 468 · 6 approved with conditions |
| Off-street parking | 11.19% (7.01–17.4%) | 4.3× (NSW 2.58%) | 16 refused of 143 · 3 approved with conditions |
| Pool, deck or fence | 9.42% (7.04–12.48%) | 5.4× (NSW 1.73%) | 42 refused of 446 · 4 approved with conditions |
| Granny flat | 10.76% (7.94–14.43%) | 2.4× (NSW 4.45%) | 38 refused of 353 · 13 approved with conditions |
| Knock down & rebuild | 9.86% (4.86–18.98%) | 0.9× (NSW 11.55%) | 7 refused of 71 · 2 approved with conditions |
Across all application types Canterbury-Bankstown Council refused 11.6% (10.37–12.95%) of the 2,380 development applications it decided.
Where these applications come unstuck
The refusal rate above says how strict the council is. This says which part of a plan is exposed — measured across all 192,284 NSW development applications, not just this council. Each is an association: plenty of applications carrying these elements are approved, and nothing here is a verdict on a proposal you haven't made yet.
- Alterations & additions — a new vehicle crossing cut into the front boundary (refused 7.27% vs 2.59% for this kind of work generally — 2.8×, on 220 applications); excavation or a new lower level (refused 6.71% vs 2.54% for this kind of work generally — 2.64×, on 611 applications)
- Off-street parking — a new vehicle crossing cut into the front boundary (refused 8.45% vs 2.42% for this kind of work generally — 3.49×, on 284 applications)
- Pool, deck or fence — excavation or a new lower level (refused 6.22% vs 1.61% for this kind of work generally — 3.88×, on 659 applications); full demolition and rebuild (refused 4.97% vs 1.6% for this kind of work generally — 3.12×, on 965 applications)
- Knock down & rebuild — excavation or a new lower level (refused 25.78% vs 9.36% for this kind of work generally — 2.75×, on 256 applications); full demolition and rebuild (refused 19.91% vs 10.46% for this kind of work generally — 1.9×, on 221 applications)
Determinations lodged on the NSW Planning Portal up to Nov 2023 — the published dataset stops there, so this is a record of how the council has behaved, not a forecast and not a statement about any particular application. Rates cover development applications only; modifications and reviews of an earlier decision are excluded. A rate is shown only where at least 30 applications were decided — below that the counts are given instead, because a percentage from a handful of decisions is not a fact about a council. "Approved with conditions" is a consent, not a refusal, and is never counted as one.
School catchments
Earlwood PS (primary) · Marrickville HS (secondary)
8 primary schools within 2 km · ICSEA ~1054 — the socio-educational advantage of the school community (My School, national average ~1000): a demographic measure, never a results or quality score.
Suburb-centre approximation for Earlwood — addresses near a boundary can differ. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.
Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.