







Currently listed — $1,680,000
3 bed · 1 bath · 0 car · House · 262 m² land
The Property Brief — what the evidence shows. You draw the conclusion.
Confidence: Low — based on 106 comparable auction sales (18 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±12% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · adjusted for this block's land size · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss
What we've tracked
- 14 Aug 2026 our tracking restarted after a six-week portal gap — the campaign start is unknown, this is not a listing date
- 18 Aug 2026 asking $1.68M
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Hardie St | 3 bd · 1 ba | $1.83M | June 2025 |
| 27 Malcolm St | 3 bd · 2 ba | $2.06M | May 2025 |
Suburb risk flags
flood exposure 49% of the suburb · bushfire exposure 0% · aircraft noise high · crime index: 59 — around sydney average · 9 min walk to Mascot · ~10 min train to the CBD · trains ~every 8 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye price model 2026-08-11-v5 — trained on 146,492 published auction sales; configuration-level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Mascot — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Evidence trail: tracked by our radar from portal listings, web-archive checks and published auction results — each entry dated
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Mascot · postcode 2020
$1062–$1369/wk is what 3-bed houses in 2020 actually transact for (middle half of 18 bonds lodged, Q2 2026 · median $1225/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).
2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $750 → $1200/wk · +11% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for houses in 2020, all bedroom counts pooled.
Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Land — for a house, the land is the asset
262 m² · up to ~144 m² of floor space under the current FSR (a guide — setbacks and height also apply)
A house's size is its land. An apartment's advertised "size" can include car space and balcony — the two are never comparable and this site never pools them. Lot details and planning controls sit under Explore the area.
Development potential — how Bayside Council treats the work you might do
Refuses 9.51% of the development applications it decides · off-street parking 5.56% (determinations to Nov 2023).
The full outlook — every category with confidence ranges, which plan elements come unstuck, and the heritage effect by category — is under Explore the area.
Agencies' own published sales nearby — Mascot, around 3 beds
| Address | Sold | Price | Beds | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 414/42 Church Avenue | by 17 Aug 2026 | $1,390,000 | 3 | Meriton |
| 453/63 Church Avenue | by 17 Aug 2026 | $900,000 | 2 | Meriton |
| 401/12 Galloway Street | by 17 Aug 2026 | $1,375,000 | 3 | Meriton |
| 629/44 Church Avenue | by 17 Aug 2026 | $955,000 | 2 | Meriton |
Prices as published on the selling agency's own website (their sold pages) — includes private-treaty sales the auction results never see. Only sales the agency chose to publish a figure for appear here.
Similar properties — on the market now
The 6 listings above are on the market now: same house category, within 1 bedroom of 3, asking within 20% of this one, in Mascot or a suburb whose centre is within 3 km — ordered by how close the asking price is. That is the whole rule: a filter, not a recommendation, and nothing here judges which home is better.
Planning & zoning — R2 Low Density Residential
Houses and dual occupancies. A protected low-rise street — little chance of towers next door.
Floor space ratio 0.55:1 — the maximum gross floor area you can build is 0.55:1 times the site area. On this 262 m² block that's up to ~144 m² of floor space (a guide — clause exceptions, setbacks and height limits also apply).
Zone R2 (Low Density Residential) under the BAYSIDE LEP, from the NSW ePlanning layers at this address's geocoded point — a guide, not a parcel-level legal check. Confirm the exact lot at the NSW Planning Portal.
Development outlook — how often Bayside Council has refused this kind of work
| If you wanted to… | Refused | vs NSW | Applications decided |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alterations & additions | 5.63% (3.59–8.72%) | 2.1× (NSW 2.63%) | 18 refused of 320 · 2 approved with conditions |
| Off-street parking | 5.56% (2.18–13.43%) | 2.2× (NSW 2.58%) | 4 refused of 72 |
| Pool, deck or fence | 5.14% (2.73–9.48%) | 3× (NSW 1.73%) | 9 refused of 175 · 1 approved with conditions |
| Granny flat | 6.41% (2.77–14.14%) | 1.4× (NSW 4.45%) | 5 refused of 78 |
| Knock down & rebuild | 31.82% (20–46.56%) | 2.8× (NSW 11.55%) | 14 refused of 44 · 4 approved with conditions |
Across all application types Bayside Council refused 9.51% (7.77–11.58%) of the 915 development applications it decided.
Where these applications come unstuck
The refusal rate above says how strict the council is. This says which part of a plan is exposed — measured across all 192,284 NSW development applications, not just this council. Each is an association: plenty of applications carrying these elements are approved, and nothing here is a verdict on a proposal you haven't made yet.
- Alterations & additions — a new vehicle crossing cut into the front boundary (refused 7.27% vs 2.59% for this kind of work generally — 2.8×, on 220 applications); excavation or a new lower level (refused 6.71% vs 2.54% for this kind of work generally — 2.64×, on 611 applications)
- Off-street parking — a new vehicle crossing cut into the front boundary (refused 8.45% vs 2.42% for this kind of work generally — 3.49×, on 284 applications)
- Pool, deck or fence — excavation or a new lower level (refused 6.22% vs 1.61% for this kind of work generally — 3.88×, on 659 applications); full demolition and rebuild (refused 4.97% vs 1.6% for this kind of work generally — 3.12×, on 965 applications)
- Knock down & rebuild — excavation or a new lower level (refused 25.78% vs 9.36% for this kind of work generally — 2.75×, on 256 applications); full demolition and rebuild (refused 19.91% vs 10.46% for this kind of work generally — 1.9×, on 221 applications)
Determinations lodged on the NSW Planning Portal up to Nov 2023 — the published dataset stops there, so this is a record of how the council has behaved, not a forecast and not a statement about any particular application. Rates cover development applications only; modifications and reviews of an earlier decision are excluded. A rate is shown only where at least 30 applications were decided — below that the counts are given instead, because a percentage from a handful of decisions is not a fact about a council. "Approved with conditions" is a consent, not a refusal, and is never counted as one.
What's changing in Mascot — recent local signals
2026-08-24 — Place of worship invest — 38 RICKETTY STREET MASCOT 2020 ($330k) (institutional-signals.json (PAN-665566, OnlineDA))
2026-08-18 — Place of worship invest — 768 BOTANY ROAD MASCOT 2020 ($578k) (institutional-signals.json (PAN-663802, OnlineDA))
2026-07-03 — DA-approved site — listing's own words: "DA-approved" (51 Hardie Street, Mascot, NSW 2020) (listing rea-151093680 (rea), first seen 2026-07-03)
Dated public signals compiled for this suburb — openings, closures, site sales and institutional moves. Facts with sources, not forecasts.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.
Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.