404/3 Black Lion Pl, Kensington — auction results & price estimate

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Your buyer evidence guide

Understand the home before the offer.

The useful records, what they mean, and the questions they leave open. Start here, then explore the evidence below.

How much price evidence fits

122 sales in the wider suburb/type pool

The wider pool is not a set of identical homes. Bedroom count, condition and location within the suburb affect comparability.

Published auction evidence · model trained through 2026-10-23

What deserves a closer look

No dated campaign events are available here. That does not establish that the asking price or agent has never changed.

What we still cannot tell you

We do not have a current listing in this page's evidence. An address record is not proof that a home is for sale.
No settled-sale history is available in this page's records. This does not mean the home has never sold.
Public records and an automated estimate cannot establish whether the home is defect-free, what the contract contains, or why the owner is selling.

Questions to take to the inspection

Use these with the agent and your independent advisers. An answer is something to verify, not a fact we have recorded.

Which recent sales are most comparable to this home, and how do their size, condition and position differ?
What repairs, alterations or water issues are documented, and what can an independent inspection verify?
What do the strata records show about current levies, planned works, meeting decisions and unresolved defects?

The estimate is a model output. The records are evidence. Your inspection and document checks fill the gaps.

Is the asking price plausible?

This is a comparison with the evidence we hold, not a valuation or a recommended offer.

CONSERVATIVE

$915k

the calibrated floor

LIKELY FAIR RANGE

$915k–$1.14M

around $1.01M mid

STRETCH CAP

$1.14M

$1.29M on the wider 80% band

Confidence: High — based on 122 comparable auction sales (37 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±11% for this configuration · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss

How this estimate was made

Method: AI PropertyEye tree model · trained through 2026-10-23
Inputs used for this home: no per-address records were available; this uses location and configuration only
Comparable support: 122 sales in the wider suburb/type pool; 37 of this exact configuration
When to be more cautious: Condition, aspect, renovation and the contract are not model inputs and can move the eventual sale price.

Comparable auction sales

Address	Config	Sold	When
210/9-15 Ascot St	2 bd · 2 ba	$1M	Sept 2025
24/16 Boronia St	2 bd · 1 ba	$970k	July 2025
G01/8 Grosvenor St	2 bd · 2 ba	$1.35M	June 2025
2/17 Todman Av	2 bd · 1 ba	$940k	May 2025
6/64-66 Anzac Pde	2 bd · 2 ba	$1.15M	May 2025
4/37 Kensington Rd	2 bd · 1 ba	$1.01M	Apr 2025

Suburb risk flags

crime index: 63 — above sydney average · 27 min walk to Kingsford Light Rail · ~28 min light rail to the CBD · light rail ~every 8 min at peak

Where every number comes from

Fair value: AI PropertyEye tree model 2026-09-02-v7-price-model-v6-full-grid, trained through 2026-10-23 — trained on 172,805 published auction sales; priced per address where this home's own records reach the model (see "How this estimate was made"), otherwise at configuration level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
Comps: published Domain auction results for Kensington — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment

What to inspect before you offer

Condition, aspect, renovation and the contract — these can materially change price, and the estimate cannot see them.
Building condition: public records cannot establish that a building is defect-free; inspect independently.

These are due-diligence prompts, not a verdict on this property.

Growth trend — Kensington units at auction

Measured like-for-like growth ≈ 3.0%/yr — 2-bed sold-price medians across 16 quarters (41 sales).

Suburb-level, from published auction results. No single building has enough sales for a block-level series, so this is the honest grain; sales-mix shifts move raw medians, and the measured rate (when shown) controls for bed count.

Published auction results at this address

Auction week	Result	Price	Agency
26 Sept 2026	Sold	withheld	—

From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.

Agencies' own published sales nearby — Kensington, around 2 beds

Address	Sold	Price	Beds	Agency
25 Epsom Road	by 8 Oct 2026	$1,269,888	3	Jellis Craig

Prices as published on the selling agency's own website (their sold pages) — includes private-treaty sales the auction results never see. Only sales the agency chose to publish a figure for appear here.

Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?

Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.

Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.

404/3 Black Lion Pl · Kensington NSW