Kensington · Sydney NSW

Price model — what the model says a typical home here achieves at auction

Modelled from 146,492 Australian auction sales (2021–2026). Sydney cells run on the base model (suburb prior + configuration + time) without the Sydney-only land/school/transport features — ranges are honest about the wider uncertainty. Estimates from comparable auction results — not valuations or financial advice.

Buildings in Kensington — full dossiers: every sale, turnover, orders, what units rent for

The 20 most-transacted of 72 Kensington buildings with dossiers — the rest are reachable from these pages and the sitemap. Sales counts and resale records from NSW Valuer General bulk data (CC-BY); lot counts from the NSW Strata Hub register. Each dossier also states what public records cannot tell you.

Recent comparable sales — the real auction results behind the estimates

Units

Houses

Recent sold auction results in Kensington from the price model's training set (published Domain results). A sample, not every sale.

What Kensington actually sold for — published auction results, quarter by quarter

Quarterly medians of real published auction results (sold outcomes only). Historical results — not a prediction, valuation or financial advice.

All settled sales — every recorded sale, not just auctions

Last 12 months: 172 settled sales · median $1,058,500 (middle half $800,000–$1,675,000)

Settled-sale records from the NSW Valuer General's Property Sales Information. Dates are contract (exchange) dates; sales appear only once lodged, so the most recent months are incomplete and revise upward — never read the latest month as final. Residential sales of all methods — private treaty and auction. © State of New South Wales (Valuation NSW).

Crime — recorded key offences (BOCSAR)

Index 63 — above the Sydney average (50 = average) · band elevated

BOCSAR recorded key offences per resident at POSTCODE level (2033) — a postcode can span neighbouring suburbs. Rates are per RESIDENT — visitor-heavy precincts read high. Source: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research (CC BY 4.0).

🏡 Yield vs growth — who pays here, and does it convert?

Owner-occupier premium. Gross yield 3.9% (bond-median rent $800/wk against a measured unit sale median of $1080k) · measured growth +3%/yr — against metro medians of 4.1% and 1.7%/yr across 39 tracked suburbs.

Thin yield, real measured growth — priced by people who want to live here, not by the rent it earns.

Observable drivers: UNSW 1.2km away — student demand pours into renting, none of it into buying.

Rent trajectory (new-tenancy bond medians, postcode 2033): +4.6%/yr over the last 3 years · +4.3%/yr since 2019 — a level is not a trend; both are shown so neither is implied.

Working: rent = NSW rental bond lodgements, flats, postcode level; growth = like-for-like 2-bed OLS (41 sales) over 16 quarters. Relative labels — "high" means above the metro median in this window, nothing more. Drivers are places and distances, never who lives here.

Delivered & approved supply — what got built around here, honestly windowed

1,885 dwellings approved in Kensington between 2019-08-30 and 2023-04-29 (246 applications). Largest: 604dw 191-197 Anzac Parade Kensington 2033 (2022) · 604dw 177 Anzac Parade Kensington 2033 (2022).

Census check: occupied dwellings grew from 4,631 (2016) to 5,284 (2021) — +653 delivered in that window, -263 of them apartments — measured completion, independent of any approval record.

Council portal records begin August 2019 — approvals before that date are invisible to the automated count and appear here only where curated from public record (and say so). Approved also precedes completed by 1–3 years. State-assessed projects live in the fast-track section, not these counts.

Anchor-tenant signals — where the big tenants put capital

Supa Centa Moore Park (trading — 870-dwelling over-station development declared SSD (EOI 310721)): nearby — Woolworths approval 301m away (44 O"Dea Avenue Waterloo 2017).

An anchor tenant building new premises near an existing centre is capital commitment — in the Eastlakes case it preceded demolition of the old site by years. At-centre works read the opposite way: investment in place. Detections are keyword matches over public planning records ("nearby" never claims common ownership); curated entries say so.

State-fiat planning programs — controls moved by state decision (RULE-002)

Low and Mid-Rise Housing reform — Kensington light rail station · controls from 2025-02-28 · source

Low and Mid-Rise Housing reform — UNSW Anzac Parade light rail station · controls from 2025-02-28 · source

A state-fiat listing changes what can be BUILT here — planning controls, height, density — by government decision, with no demand-demonstration step. It is a zoning signal, not a price signal: our own backtests found listed and unlisted suburbs moving together, so we don't claim price uplift from a listing. What it reliably means: development capacity changed on the date shown, checkable at the source.

Institutional moves — arrivals & departures, 12-month DA window

When an organisation with real money commits to a location — or abandons one — they've done homework you can't see. The market moves around that decision; the building is the visible end of it.

departure Childcare — 31 Todman Avenue Kensington 2033 · $1.1M works
Demolition · Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure · Early Education and Care Facility · Centre-based child care · Determined · determined 2025-10-09 · PAN-548829

departure Place of worship — 1 Roma Avenue Kensington 2033 · $91k works
Demolition · Place of public worship · Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure · Erection of a new structure · Under Assessment · lodged 2026-06-11 · PAN-646359

A DA is intent, not an opening — and a demolition DA is not always a closure (rebuilds happen). Classification is over the Planning Portal's own structured development types; every record above is checkable by its PAN number. Departures are deliberately listed first: almost nobody watches them. Supermarket-class moves live in the anchor-tenant section, not here. Development application data © NSW Department of Planning and Environment, used under CC BY 4.0.

Stage-zero signals — green & active-transport moves before any DA exists

South Coogee to Kingsford walking & cycling corridor — ladder position: endorsed. Draft concept 2018 (800+ submissions), revised concept endorsed by Randwick Council June 2019 — awaiting State Government funding to proceed to construction. source

A proposal is not a project — a vision-stage concept is never pipeline. Ladder: vision → study → endorsed → funded → delivery; corridors that climb it historically precede rezoning along the route (RULE-001's stage zero).

State-assessed housing nearby — the fast-track pipeline within 2.5km, refused declarations included

100 dwellings · 88 - 90 Alison Road, Randwick · 0.8km away · Calibre Advisory
Not declared — fast-track refused · HDA record, 2026-06-23

546 dwellings · 905 South Dowling Street, Zetland · 0.8km away · Karimbla Constructions Services (NSW) Pty Ltd ACN: 152 212 809
Not declared — fast-track refused · HDA record, 2026-03-13

870 dwellings · 2A South Dowling Street, Moore Park · 1km away · Terrace Tower Group
Declared State Significant — on the fast-track · HDA record, 2026-06-22

39 Barker St, Kensington · 1.2km away
Under assessment · SSD-84220206

266 dwellings · 1-3 Rosebery Avenue, Rosebery · 1.3km away · Ford Land Company Pty Ltd
Preparing the EIS — design being documented · SSD-87119707

100 dwellings · 25 Lachlan Street, Waterloo · 1.4km away · Pacific Oasis 25 Lachlan St Waterloo Development Pty Ltd
Not declared — fast-track refused · HDA record, 2025-10-10

+ 17 more within 2.5km — see the full fast-track list.

Known pipeline within 2.5km: 5,459 dwellings across 23 projects — future supply IF approved and built. More homes coming can mean growth in services and momentum, but also more stock competing with a resale.

These proposals go straight to NSW state assessment (Housing Delivery Authority pathway) and never appear in council DA counts. Dwelling numbers are the applicant's EOI figures — assessment can trim them. Distance is suburb-centre to project, ±500m.

Schools — density, catchment and community profile

6 primary schools within 2km · nearest school ~0.58km · 3 selective within 5km · ICSEA 1084

Catchment (suburb-centre approximation): Daceyville PS · Randwick HS — a boundary address can differ; verify yours at NSW School Finder.

ICSEA is the socio-educational advantage of a school's community (My School, national average ~1000) — a demographic measure, not a quality or results score. NSW DoE school locations + intake zones, CC BY 4.0.

Auction market pace — Sydney weekly clearance

Benchmark series (Domain): week to 2026-08-22 — 53.8% of 372 reported auctions. Our own tracking (withdrawn counted): week to 2026-08-22 — 43% of 524 scheduled. Lower clearance generally means more room for buyers to negotiate.

Suburb breakdown — trailing 8 weeks, our tracking, withdrawn counted

Recent auction addresses in Kensington

Every address links to its own page — published results, price estimate, suburb context.

7/22 Villiers St · 725/84-108 Anzac Pde · 201/152 Doncaster Av · 5/39 Doncaster Av · 5/49-59 Boronia St · 111/3 Ascot St · 13/8-12 Ascot St · 14 Inglethorpe Av · 402/2-6 Goodwood St · 1/52-54 Boronia St · 8/22 Milroy Av · 18/8-12 Ascot St · 28/231-233 Anzac Pde

Development pipeline — what's proposed in Kensington, and how far along it is

State-pipeline proposals (pre-DA — the biggest projects start here)

• 203 - 207 Anzac Parade, Kensington, 113 Doncaster Avenue, Kensington — Demolition of existing buildings and erection of mixed - use development, including shop - top housing and residential flat building components. 110 dwellings. Includes 15% affordable housing for an unspecified period.
  ABC Planning Pty Ltd · Proposed — state-pipeline EOI (pre-DA, may change or lapse)
• 104, 106, 108 & 110 Todman Avenue, Kensington — One 18- storey (59m) mixed-use building with 100 apartments above ground-floor retail with 10% of total GFA dedicated to affordable housing.
  Eastview QLD Pty Ltd · Proposed — state-pipeline EOI (pre-DA, may change or lapse)
• 77-79, 81-85, 87, 89, 91-93, 95, 97-99, 101, 103 Anzac Parade and 59A, 61, 63, 67, 69-71 Boronia Street, Kensington — 357 apartments including 15% affordable housing, 24 storeys, ground floor supermarket and retail, and public domain upgrades including a through link.
  Architectus · Proposed — state-pipeline EOI (pre-DA, may change or lapse)

Major applications in the DA channel

Plus 49 smaller applications (renovations, single dwellings, signage) — 31 determined, 3 approved, 8 lodged, 5 withdrawn, 1 cancelled, 1 refused.

What this view cannot see

• Council DAs from the NSW Planning Portal open feed, matched within ~150 m of addresses we track — a proximity net, not a complete register.
• Verdicts (approved/refused) come from a dataset frozen in Nov 2023: anything determined after that shows “determined” without a published outcome. Check the application on the NSW Planning Portal for the current decision.
• The largest master-planned sites can proceed as State Significant Development or planning proposals and never appear as council DAs. State-pipeline EOIs shown here are proposals, not applications, and can change or lapse.
• No feed we hold ties a construction certificate to a specific application, so no project row here can honestly read “under construction” — “approved” never means “built”. Suburb-level construction-certificate volume appears in the DA-volume section.

Housing and jobs targets — RANDWICK LGA

Under the NSW Government's 20-year Sydney plan, RANDWICK has a five-year housing target of 4,000 new homes (2024–2029) and a jobs target of 8,800–13,600 additional jobs by 2046.

The housing target is the supply pipeline for the area: the number of new homes the state expects the council to plan capacity for, concentrated around the centres and station areas the Plan nominates. The jobs figure is published as an aspirational range and is not legislated the way housing targets are.

Source: The Sydney Plan, Appendix D — Housing and Employment Guidance (published 13 August 2026), licensed CC BY 4.0. © State of New South Wales and Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure 2026

State rezoning pipeline — Randwick LGA

The Sydney Plan lists one state significant rezoning site in this LGA — land the NSW Government is rezoning (or has rezoned) for additional homes and jobs, alongside council-led supply. Dwelling and jobs figures are preliminary estimates provided by proponents or councils.

• Bunnerong Road, Kingsford (Homes NSW) — ~185 dwellings · rezoning completed June 2025

These are LGA-level sites, not a statement about any individual property; the Plan does not publish site boundaries or coordinates in this appendix. Source: The Sydney Plan, Appendix F — State-led or assessed rezonings (published 13 August 2026, updated every 6 months), licensed CC BY 4.0. © State of New South Wales and Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure 2026