The Property Brief — what the evidence shows. You draw the conclusion.
Confidence: Low — based on 27 comparable auction sales (5 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±11% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Howell St | 3 bd · 1 ba | $990k | May 2025 |
| 291 Park Av | 3 bd · 2 ba | $947k | Apr 2025 |
| 16 Nesbitt Cl | 3 bd · 3 ba | $1.18M | Apr 2025 |
| 4 Springfield Av | 3 bd · 2 ba | $1.46M | Apr 2025 |
Suburb risk flags
crime index: 85 — well above sydney average
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye price model 2026-08-11-v5 — trained on 146,492 published auction sales; configuration-level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Kotara — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Kotara · postcode 2289
$700–$800/wk is what 3-bed houses in 2289 actually transact for (middle half of 51 bonds lodged, Q2 2026 · median $750/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).
2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $480 → $750/wk · +6% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for houses in 2289, all bedroom counts pooled.
Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Published auction results at this address
| Auction week | Result | Price | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 July 2026 | Sold | $1,305,000 | McGrath Newcastle |
From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.
Sale history — the official settled-sale record at this address
| Exchanged | Price | Change since prior sale |
|---|---|---|
| 24 July 1991 | $160,000 | — |
Settled-sale records from the NSW Valuer General's Property Sales Information. Dates are contract (exchange) dates; sales appear only once lodged, so the most recent months are incomplete and revise upward — never read the latest month as final. Two entries on one date are usually a single transaction recorded across parts. © State of New South Wales (Valuation NSW).
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Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.