Is the asking price plausible?
This is a comparison with the evidence we hold, not a valuation or a recommended offer.
Confidence: Low — based on 54 comparable auction sales (0 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±14% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · priced from this property's own records: block size, land value · thin comparable support for this configuration — read the range as wider, not as a warning · the model's typical miss is ~10% against published results — every hit and miss
How this estimate was made
- Method: AI PropertyEye tree model · trained through 2026-09-03
- Inputs used for this home: priced from this property's own records: block size, land value
- Comparable support: 54 sales in the wider suburb/type pool; 0 of this exact configuration
- When to be more cautious: This configuration has thin direct comparable support, so its range is deliberately wider.
Suburb risk flags
flood exposure 42% of the suburb · bushfire exposure 0% · aircraft noise low · crime index: 45 — around sydney average · 22 min walk to Green Square · ~8 min train to the CBD · trains ~every 8 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye tree model 2026-09-02-v7-price-model-v6-full-grid, trained through 2026-09-03 — trained on 169,356 published auction sales; priced per address where this home's own records reach the model (see "How this estimate was made"), otherwise at configuration level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
What to inspect before you offer
- Condition, aspect, renovation and the contract — these can materially change price, and the estimate cannot see them.
These are due-diligence prompts, not a verdict on this property.
Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Rosebery · postcode 2018
$1225–$1650/wk is what 4-bed houses in 2018 actually transact for (middle half of 19 bonds lodged, last 12 mo · median $1480/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).
2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $872 → $1300/wk · +11% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for houses in 2018, all bedroom counts pooled.
Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Published auction results at this address
| Auction week | Result | Price | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 June 2026 | Sold prior | $1,670,000 | — |
From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.
Agencies' own published sales nearby — Rosebery, around 4 beds
| Address | Sold | Price | Beds | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| G43/29 Rothschild Avenue | by 17 Aug 2026 | $1,480,000 | 3 | Meriton |
| 811/2 Spring Street | by 17 Aug 2026 | $1,300,000 | 3 | Meriton |
| 613/2 Spring Street | by 17 Aug 2026 | $1,300,000 | 3 | Meriton |
| 227/3 Stedman Street | by 17 Aug 2026 | $1,430,000 | 3 | Meriton |
Prices as published on the selling agency's own website (their sold pages) — includes private-treaty sales the auction results never see. Only sales the agency chose to publish a figure for appear here.
Sale history — the official settled-sale record at this address
| Exchanged | Price | Change since prior sale |
|---|---|---|
| 5 June 2026 | $1,670,000 | — |
Settled-sale records from the NSW Valuer General's Property Sales Information. Dates are contract (exchange) dates; sales appear only once lodged, so the most recent months are incomplete and revise upward — never read the latest month as final. Two entries on one date are usually a single transaction recorded across parts. © State of New South Wales (Valuation NSW).
What's changing in Rosebery — recent local signals
2026-08-15 — DA-approved site — listing's own words: "DA-approved" (163 Dunning Avenue, Rosebery, NSW 2018) (listing rea-151874492 (rea), first seen 2026-08-15)
2026-02-06 — Place of worship departure — 5-15 EPSOM ROAD ROSEBERY 2018 ($613k) (institutional-signals.json (PAN-610583, OnlineDA))
Dated public signals compiled for this suburb — openings, closures, site sales and institutional moves. Facts with sources, not forecasts.
School catchments
Gardeners Rd PS (primary) · J J Cahill MHS (secondary)
4 primary schools within 2 km · ICSEA ~1056 — the socio-educational advantage of the school community (My School, national average ~1000): a demographic measure, never a results or quality score.
Suburb-centre approximation for Rosebery — addresses near a boundary can differ. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.
Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.