Currently listed — $3,900,000
4 bed · 3 bath · 2 car · House
The Property Brief — what the evidence shows. You draw the conclusion.
Confidence: Low — based on 72 comparable auction sales (4 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±15% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · thin comparable support for this configuration — read the range as wider, not as a warning · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss
What we've tracked
- 17 Feb 2026 listed by the agency (portal date)
- 25 Aug 2026 asking $3.9M
- 27 Aug 2026 on market 191 days — portal listing date
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Henley Marine Dr | 4 bd · 2 ba | $3.22M | June 2025 |
| 485 Lyons Rd W | 4 bd · 2 ba | $2.87M | Apr 2025 |
| 56 Noble St | 4 bd · 3 ba | $4.13M | Feb 2025 |
| 535 Lyons Rd W | 4 bd · 1 ba | $3.88M | Nov 2024 |
Suburb risk flags
crime index: 34 — below sydney average · 38 min walk to Ashfield · ~13 min train to the CBD · trains ~every 3 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye price model 2026-08-11-v5 — trained on 146,492 published auction sales; configuration-level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Five Dock — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Evidence trail: tracked by our radar from portal listings, web-archive checks and published auction results — each entry dated
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
⏱ Days on market — this campaign
191 days since our daily sweep first saw this listing.
The portal's own campaign may have started slightly earlier than our first sighting. Longer campaigns tend to mean more negotiating room — the board's "Longest listed" sort exists for exactly that reason.
Development potential — how City of Canada Bay Council treats the work you might do
Refuses 5.37% of the development applications it decides · off-street parking 6.78% (determinations to Nov 2023).
The full outlook — every category with confidence ranges, which plan elements come unstuck, and the heritage effect by category — is under Explore the area.
Agencies' own published sales nearby — Five Dock, around 4 beds
| Address | Sold | Price | Beds | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 151 First Avenue | 11 Nov 2022 | $2,300,000 | 4 | Harris Partners |
| 14 James Street | 1 Sept 2022 | $3,295,000 | 4 | Harris Partners |
Prices as published on the selling agency's own website (their sold pages) — includes private-treaty sales the auction results never see. Only sales the agency chose to publish a figure for appear here.
Similar properties — on the market now
The 5 listings above are on the market now: same house category, within 1 bedroom of 4, asking within 20% of this one, in Five Dock or a suburb whose centre is within 3 km — ordered by how close the asking price is. That is the whole rule: a filter, not a recommendation, and nothing here judges which home is better.
Sale history — the official settled-sale record at this address
| Exchanged | Price | Change since prior sale |
|---|---|---|
| 8 May 2023 | $4,160,000 | — |
| 30 Jan 2025 | $4,125,000 | -0.8% over 1.7 yrs |
Settled-sale records from the NSW Valuer General's Property Sales Information. Dates are contract (exchange) dates; sales appear only once lodged, so the most recent months are incomplete and revise upward — never read the latest month as final. Two entries on one date are usually a single transaction recorded across parts. © State of New South Wales (Valuation NSW).
Planning & zoning — R2 Low Density Residential
Houses and dual occupancies. A protected low-rise street — little chance of towers next door.
Height limit 17m (≈ 5 storeys) — the current legal ceiling for new building at this point under the LEP. Any proposal above it needs a variation or a rezoning — the kind of change the fast-track pipeline tracks.
Floor space ratio 2.5:1 — the maximum gross floor area you can build is 2.5:1 times the site area.
Registered lot A/DP151938 — The registered plan lot at this address's geocoded point (NSW cadastre). On semis, duplexes and recent subdivisions the registered lot can be the parent parcel — the portal's advertised land size can differ legitimately.
Zone R2 (Low Density Residential) under the CANADA BAY LEP, as recorded against this property in the NSW Valuer General's valuation record — a guide, not a parcel-level legal check. Confirm the exact lot at the NSW Planning Portal.
Development outlook — how often City of Canada Bay Council has refused this kind of work
| If you wanted to… | Refused | vs NSW | Applications decided |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alterations & additions | 4.9% (2.94–8.05%) | 1.9× (NSW 2.63%) | 14 refused of 286 · 3 approved with conditions |
| Off-street parking | 6.78% (2.67–16.18%) | 2.6× (NSW 2.58%) | 4 refused of 59 |
| Pool, deck or fence | 5.41% (2.5–11.29%) | 3.1× (NSW 1.73%) | 6 refused of 111 · 6 approved with conditions |
| Granny flat | too few to rate | — (NSW 4.45%) | 1 refused of 15 · 1 approved with conditions |
| Knock down & rebuild | too few to rate | — (NSW 11.55%) | 3 refused of 13 · 2 approved with conditions |
Across all application types City of Canada Bay Council refused 5.37% (3.94–7.28%) of the 708 development applications it decided.
Where these applications come unstuck
The refusal rate above says how strict the council is. This says which part of a plan is exposed — measured across all 192,284 NSW development applications, not just this council. Each is an association: plenty of applications carrying these elements are approved, and nothing here is a verdict on a proposal you haven't made yet.
- Alterations & additions — a new vehicle crossing cut into the front boundary (refused 7.27% vs 2.59% for this kind of work generally — 2.8×, on 220 applications); excavation or a new lower level (refused 6.71% vs 2.54% for this kind of work generally — 2.64×, on 611 applications)
- Off-street parking — a new vehicle crossing cut into the front boundary (refused 8.45% vs 2.42% for this kind of work generally — 3.49×, on 284 applications)
- Pool, deck or fence — excavation or a new lower level (refused 6.22% vs 1.61% for this kind of work generally — 3.88×, on 659 applications); full demolition and rebuild (refused 4.97% vs 1.6% for this kind of work generally — 3.12×, on 965 applications)
- Knock down & rebuild — excavation or a new lower level (refused 25.78% vs 9.36% for this kind of work generally — 2.75×, on 256 applications); full demolition and rebuild (refused 19.91% vs 10.46% for this kind of work generally — 1.9×, on 221 applications)
Determinations lodged on the NSW Planning Portal up to Nov 2023 — the published dataset stops there, so this is a record of how the council has behaved, not a forecast and not a statement about any particular application. Rates cover development applications only; modifications and reviews of an earlier decision are excluded. A rate is shown only where at least 30 applications were decided — below that the counts are given instead, because a percentage from a handful of decisions is not a fact about a council. "Approved with conditions" is a consent, not a refusal, and is never counted as one.
Development applications — at & near this address
| Where | Proposal | Status | Outcome | Est. cost | Lodged |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ~72 m · Shop 5, 133 Great North Road, Five Dock | Take-Away Food And Drink Premises | Determined | Approved | $25k | 2020-11-09 |
| ~76 m · 99-101 Great North Road Five Dock 2046 | Restaurant Or Cafe · 1 new dwelling | Determined | Approved | $50k | 2021-03-04 |
| ~78 m · 135 Great North Road Five Dock 2046 | Demolition, Shop Top Housing, Erection Of A New Structure · 32 new dwellings | Under Assessment | not on record | $1M | 2025-08-28 |
| ~78 m · 135 Great North Road Five Dock 2046 | Demolition, Mixed Use Development · 30 new dwellings | Determined | not on record | $5.73M | 2023-07-06 |
| ~84 m · 11 Garfield Street Five Dock 2046 | Dual Occupancy · 2 new dwellings | Withdrawn | not on record | $775k | 2021-05-02 |
| ~108 m · 147-149 Great North Road Five Dock 2046 | Alterations And Additions To Commercial Development | Determined | Approved | $600k | 2020-11-30 |
Development application data © NSW Department of Planning and Environment, used under CC BY 4.0. Matched at this exact address or within ~150 m of its geocoded point — proximity evidence, not a parcel-level check. Lodged means proposed, not approved or built. Outcome comes from a separate NSW dataset that stops in Nov 2023: applications determined after that, or still undetermined, read “not on record” — which means we don't know, never that it was refused. “Status” is the council's own workflow state and “Determined” on its own does not say which way it went. Verify any application on the NSW Planning Portal.
School catchments
Five Dock PS (primary) · Concord HS (secondary)
6 primary schools within 2 km · ICSEA ~1104 — the socio-educational advantage of the school community (My School, national average ~1000): a demographic measure, never a results or quality score.
NSW DoE intake zones at this address's geocoded point — tighter than a suburb-level guess, but geocodes carry a few metres of error and boundaries change with reviews. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Green space nearby
Protected public recreation land within 250 m
Land zoned RE1 under the local environmental plan — reserved for public recreation, which protects it from being built over. The zoning doesn't say what's on it or how usable it is, and this layer doesn't carry park names.
Privately-zoned recreation land (RE2 — typically golf courses or club grounds) within 2000 m. Private land: green outlook, not public open space.
Straight-line distance, not walking distance. NSW ePlanning planning layers (Land Zoning), CC BY. Distances are ladder buckets measured at the address's geocoded point.
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Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.