The Property Brief — what the evidence shows. You draw the conclusion.
Confidence: Low — based on 37 comparable auction sales (3 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±15% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · thin comparable support for this configuration — read the range as wider, not as a warning · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Marinella St | 3 bd · 1 ba | $2.74M | Sept 2025 |
| 23 Laurie Rd | 3 bd · 1 ba | $2.88M | June 2025 |
| 45a King St | 3 bd · 1 ba | $1.93M | Sept 2024 |
| 30 Mildred Av | 3 bd · 1 ba | $2.72M | Sept 2024 |
Suburb risk flags
crime index: 24 — below sydney average · ferries ~every 5 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye price model 2026-08-11-v5 — trained on 146,492 published auction sales; configuration-level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Manly Vale — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
Development potential — how Northern Beaches Council treats the work you might do
Refuses 2.88% of the development applications it decides · off-street parking 2.59% (determinations to Nov 2023).
The full outlook — every category with confidence ranges, which plan elements come unstuck, and the heritage effect by category — is under Explore the area.
Published auction results at this address
| Auction week | Result | Price | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 July 2026 | Sold | withheld | Clarke & Humel Property |
From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.
Agencies' own published sales nearby — Manly Vale, around 3 beds
| Address | Sold | Price | Beds | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/7-9 Quirk Road | 10 July 2026 | $1,335,000 | 2 | Cunninghams |
| 12/12 Fairway Close | 10 June 2026 | $1,190,000 | 2 | Cunninghams |
| 7B/29 Quirk Road | 22 May 2026 | $955,000 | 2 | Cunninghams |
| 35/76 Kenneth Road | 30 Apr 2026 | $1,250,000 | 2 | Cunninghams |
| 9 Parkes Street | 17 Apr 2026 | $2,580,000 | 2 | Cunninghams |
Prices as published on the selling agency's own website (their sold pages) — includes private-treaty sales the auction results never see. Only sales the agency chose to publish a figure for appear here.
Sale history — the official settled-sale record at this address
| Exchanged | Price | Change since prior sale |
|---|---|---|
| 3 July 2026 | $2,420,000 | — |
Settled-sale records from the NSW Valuer General's Property Sales Information. Dates are contract (exchange) dates; sales appear only once lodged, so the most recent months are incomplete and revise upward — never read the latest month as final. Two entries on one date are usually a single transaction recorded across parts. © State of New South Wales (Valuation NSW).
Planning & zoning — R2 Low Density Residential
Houses and dual occupancies. A protected low-rise street — little chance of towers next door.
Height limit 8.5m (≈ 2 storeys) — the current legal ceiling for new building at this point under the LEP. Any proposal above it needs a variation or a rezoning — the kind of change the fast-track pipeline tracks.
Registered lots in Manly Vale run 470–780 m² (middle 80% of 14 registered parcels). This one is 645 m² — inside that range.
Whether a block this size can be subdivided or redeveloped is a separate question: minimum lot size, setbacks and the council's DCP controls decide it, and this page doesn't check them. One point per registered parcel, so a tower's parent lot counts once — not once per unit. Confirm the parcel and its controls with the council before you inspect.
Zone R2 (Low Density Residential) under the NORTHERN BEACHES LEP, as recorded against this property in the NSW Valuer General's valuation record — a guide, not a parcel-level legal check. Confirm the exact lot at the NSW Planning Portal.
Development outlook — how often Northern Beaches Council has refused this kind of work
| If you wanted to… | Refused | vs NSW | Applications decided |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alterations & additions | 1.5% (1.07–2.12%) | 0.6× (NSW 2.63%) | 32 refused of 2,128 · 15 approved with conditions |
| Off-street parking | 2.59% (1.55–4.3%) | 1× (NSW 2.58%) | 14 refused of 541 · 10 approved with conditions |
| Pool, deck or fence | 0.89% (0.51–1.54%) | 0.5× (NSW 1.73%) | 12 refused of 1,355 · 22 approved with conditions |
| Granny flat | 2.56% (1.25–5.2%) | 0.6× (NSW 4.45%) | 7 refused of 273 · 7 approved with conditions |
| Knock down & rebuild | 26.03% (17.34–37.11%) | 2.3× (NSW 11.55%) | 19 refused of 73 · 4 approved with conditions |
Across all application types Northern Beaches Council refused 2.88% (2.42–3.44%) of the 4,195 development applications it decided.
Where these applications come unstuck
The refusal rate above says how strict the council is. This says which part of a plan is exposed — measured across all 192,284 NSW development applications, not just this council. Each is an association: plenty of applications carrying these elements are approved, and nothing here is a verdict on a proposal you haven't made yet.
- Alterations & additions — a new vehicle crossing cut into the front boundary (refused 7.27% vs 2.59% for this kind of work generally — 2.8×, on 220 applications); excavation or a new lower level (refused 6.71% vs 2.54% for this kind of work generally — 2.64×, on 611 applications)
- Off-street parking — a new vehicle crossing cut into the front boundary (refused 8.45% vs 2.42% for this kind of work generally — 3.49×, on 284 applications)
- Pool, deck or fence — excavation or a new lower level (refused 6.22% vs 1.61% for this kind of work generally — 3.88×, on 659 applications); full demolition and rebuild (refused 4.97% vs 1.6% for this kind of work generally — 3.12×, on 965 applications)
- Knock down & rebuild — excavation or a new lower level (refused 25.78% vs 9.36% for this kind of work generally — 2.75×, on 256 applications); full demolition and rebuild (refused 19.91% vs 10.46% for this kind of work generally — 1.9×, on 221 applications)
Determinations lodged on the NSW Planning Portal up to Nov 2023 — the published dataset stops there, so this is a record of how the council has behaved, not a forecast and not a statement about any particular application. Rates cover development applications only; modifications and reviews of an earlier decision are excluded. A rate is shown only where at least 30 applications were decided — below that the counts are given instead, because a percentage from a handful of decisions is not a fact about a council. "Approved with conditions" is a consent, not a refusal, and is never counted as one.
School catchments
Manly Vale PS (primary) · The Forest HS (secondary)
4 primary schools within 2 km · ICSEA ~1133 — the socio-educational advantage of the school community (My School, national average ~1000): a demographic measure, never a results or quality score.
NSW DoE intake zones at this address's geocoded point — tighter than a suburb-level guess, but geocodes carry a few metres of error and boundaries change with reviews. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.
Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.